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If Roger Bootle Can Take It Like A Man.....

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Much more reasonable IMO after the fact (being easy on you there) to say that you thought it would happen, rather than say now that it will.

I still say it will happen but the percentage of correction will make it easier to give a personal prediction at the end of 2006, when as I said previously, after everthing has gone pop. ;)

Having no umbrella when it rains means you get very wet.

The majority of Britons would be unable to cope financially in the event of a minor household emergency according to the Alliance & Leicester. Just 28% said they had money put aside which could be used to replace household appliances, such as a cooker or fridge.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

It's a question of timing.

It's not whether it will happen but when.

If you haven't had to pawn your computer by this time next year, ask us all then. :)

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Not a prediction but an observation. It went bang last year in spectacular style, with the lowest sales for 30 years, when the ecconomy was performing well.

Make the price to earnings ratio worse through further price rises, what do you think will happen this year? Most of these people making predictions could not find thier **** with both hands.

Edited by jellybean

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Yeah, sorry TTRTR I got it all wrong :(

I just didn't see the SIPPS u turn coming :lol:

All I can see that backs our case is

No SIPPS

Credit tightening

Excess personal debt

Pensions shortfall

Savings shortfall

Unemployment rising

Global inflation

Anyone care to add to this?

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Yeah, sorry TTRTR I got it all wrong :(

I just didn't see the SIPPS u turn coming :lol:

All I can see that backs our case is

No SIPPS

Credit tightening

Excess personal debt

Pensions shortfall

Savings shortfall

Unemployment rising

Global inflation

Anyone care to add to this?

Yes , Excess Government Debt

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So are you piling more predictions on top of others? Or what?

No predictions, these are all points raised within the last few months and they make the counter case

Now lets see yours...

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No predictions, these are all points raised within the last few months and they make the counter case

Now lets see yours...

As a rule I try not to make predictions. Arguments though, they're my speciality.

Yeah, sorry TTRTR I got it all wrong :(

I just didn't see the SIPPS u turn coming :lol:

All I can see that backs our case is

No SIPPS

Credit tightening

Excess personal debt

Pensions shortfall

Savings shortfall

Unemployment rising

Global inflation

Anyone care to add to this?

SIPPs was too restricted anyway & wouldn't have done much

Credit is being loosened by more lenders than you seem to think. 2 restrictions on new builds hardly qualifies as tightening.

People are paying down their credit cards

Pensions, worry about that later

People are saving more now than they have been

Unemployment rising from historic lows

Inflation is a good thing for property

Excellent, you just jogged my memory

Tax rises

Utility bill rises

Low wage inflation

What tax rises? The stealth ones?

I used to pay 20 a month for my gas. Now I pay 26 a month. Hardly a shock.

Low wage inflation? Better drop rates then.

Mate those were weak arguments, easily dealt with.

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Roger Bootle has admitted he was wrong.

I think it's about time some of you stepped forward & confessed your incorrect predictions of an HPC. There's certainly enough of them here to keep this thread going for ages.

Ready, set, go...... :D

Roger Bootle has not " admitted he was wrong" . He still maintains that the market is over valued and that price rises are not sustainable. He says that the timing of what he predicted and the degree of adjustment was overstated v what has happened in the last year but he does not say that his fundamental argument was changed. I recall you saying that BTL was a great idea with SIPPS on the way and a supply and demand inbalance. Your agument now requires the same kind of adjustment but you have not changed your point of view - ??

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What Roger actually said ....

Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics, is convinced houses are overvalued and the only way is down.

"I think house prices will fall from peak to trough by around 20%." he says.

"I suspect it will be strung out over a number of years, maybe two, maybe three years, and this year - the first year of falls - maybe it'll be 5 or 6%."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whichever way it is dressed up - the market has over corrected on the upside and is based on poor fundamentals - not sound fundamentals - FTB cannot afford to get on the ladder - flats are falling in price . The BTL equation is not as attractive as it once was. Costs of energy and living are going up and money is not as cheap as it was.

House prices will correct downwards over the future - the question is when and by how much

Edited by trebor

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I never predicted a crash all the time I’ve been registered with this site, but I will now.

Knowing my luck, it will be the day after I buy at today’s prices for my property.

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I do not think you can expect the people here to admit that they were wrong it would be counter-culture.

Far from it , I predicted -ve headlines by Oct this year , depending on who you believe I was neither right or wrong.

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As a rule I try not to make predictions. Arguments though, they're my speciality.

SIPPs was too restricted anyway & wouldn't have done much

Credit is being loosened by more lenders than you seem to think. 2 restrictions on new builds hardly qualifies as tightening.

People are paying down their credit cards

Pensions, worry about that later

People are saving more now than they have been

Unemployment rising from historic lows

Inflation is a good thing for property

What tax rises? The stealth ones?

I used to pay 20 a month for my gas. Now I pay 26 a month. Hardly a shock.

Low wage inflation? Better drop rates then.

Mate those were weak arguments, easily dealt with.

SIPPs was too restricted anyway & wouldn't have done much

How so , the final details were never even printed.

People are paying down their credit cards

The wrong people.

People are saving more now than they have been

And any idiot will tell that is because their disposable income is shrinking so the ratio rises.

Pensions, worry about that later

You're starting to sound like a politician , careful. :)

Unemployment rising from historic lows

Right direction

Inflation is a good thing for property

But not good for rates.

What tax rises? The stealth ones?

Council Tax , NIC's . Hardly stealth.

I used to pay 20 a month for my gas. Now I pay 26 a month. Hardly a shock.

What about those with little or no extra disposable income , pensioners for starters!

Low wage inflation? Better drop rates then.

To coin your phrase , it's starting to rise from low levels and if you belive that Nu-Labours paymasters are going to adhere to 2% pay rises per year then I fear you're wrong.

Dames

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Yeah, sorry TTRTR I got it all wrong :(

I just didn't see the SIPPS u turn coming :lol:

All I can see that backs our case is

No SIPPS

Credit tightening

Excess personal debt

Pensions shortfall

Savings shortfall

Unemployment rising

Global inflation

Anyone care to add to this?

Peak Oil

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I used to pay 20 a month for my gas. Now I pay 26 a month. Hardly a shock.

And a lot of people used to pay about £650 a month for their mortgage, and now pay only about £625 after the recent interest rate cut. Definite fuel there for the housing market. Definitely a reason to go out and commit to slaving to pay another 20 or 30K over the next 20 years. Not.

Edited by Levy process

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They are talking about lowering interest rates because the economy is that bad it can't handle well below average interest rates. This is a dire sign.

All that really matters re property is that prices are over valued compared to a) rent & B) incomes. This is only currently supportable by people getting into unprecedented levels of debt. This is not sustanable. Only two ways out, price readjustment or inflation. Its that simple.

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Roger Bootle has admitted he was wrong.

I think it's about time some of you stepped forward & confessed your incorrect predictions of an HPC. There's certainly enough of them here to keep this thread going for ages.

Ready, set, go...... :D

It's a little early to gloat, TTRTR - the bears only have to be right once, don't forget.

Erwin Chargaff once made the interesting observation that the pessimists are usually right in the long run, it's just the timing call that takes a bit of practice.

But HPC is NOT guaranteed. A Peak Oil hit will lead to strong inflation, and that will send nominal house prices through the roof (along with everything else) whilst annihilating debt. Since the powers that be know perfectly well that PO is probable in the next five years, they must equally know the best game plan is just to hold the show on the road until there's an energy crisis, then inflate to burn all the debt to cinders. In this case, TTRTR, fate will pay off all your mortgages and you will be sitting pretty. You may well have lost money in real terms, but you pay debt nominally, so the real world "doesn't count".

So yes, you might well have the last laugh, you never know.

Then again, the HPC may whack.

We'll just have to see.

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Hi TTRTR,

I would confess I was wrong, unfortunately I have never 'predicted' a HPC.

I would very much like there to be a HPC, partly for myself - so I can get a bargain, but mainly for those less fortunate than myself, the average hard working person that is being forced to rent 6 months at a time, no security, no savings, no pension, just debt debt debt.

We're opening up a generational divide in this country and the longer it takes for house prices to come down, or wages to catch up, or tenancy laws to be reformed, the bigger the gap between the rich and poor, and the young and old is going to get. This is only negative, in a fair and just society, which must be our goal, where productive hard work translates into financial security, current home prices are a disaster. We have failed.

Lets get this over with and begin to pass this country on to a new generation.

Viva la HPC!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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