Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
opt_out

Brexit Betting Vs Polls

Recommended Posts

After reading about the polls and applying my own adjustments to them, I was starting to feel happy that just maybe we might vote EXIT.

But then I saw the betting market. https://betting.betfair.com/politics/brexit/

So what's going on?

One possibility is that a lot of the money backing remain is a hedge ( they think they will be worse off if we vote remain).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After reading about the polls and applying my own adjustments to them, I was starting to feel happy that just maybe we might vote EXIT.

But then I saw the betting market. https://betting.betfair.com/politics/brexit/

So what's going on?

One possibility is that a lot of the money backing remain is a hedge ( they think they will be worse off if we vote remain).

Workingpoor posted odds and a link a couple of weeks ago the odds then were IIRC 5/2 7/4 but odds checker ? showed 89% of the bets were on the leave side so there must have been some very large bets on the remain side to get those odds

A bookies odds are not determined by the likely/perceived outcome they are calculated by the bookmaker using their overround

But who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have a fair appetite for risk I think you can bet on remain. Personally I think trading the FTSE might be better. A lot of institutions have to be risk averse, so they can't bet on remain, even though it's quite likely to be the outcome.

The hedge thinking is smart though. I remain hearing that rich property owners were betting on Labour as a hedge against the cost of the mansion tax.

Maybe the point here is prediction markets are anticipating the shift in the polls that usually happens in these type of referenda.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed, If it's not a hedge, then it's the market saying forget the current polls the establishment (if that's the right word) will get their way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed, If it's not a hedge, then it's the market saying forget the current polls the establishment (if that's the right word) will get their way.

Outcome is irrelevant to odds and has even less to do with how many people are on each side of a bet

A 1000 people betting £1 on one side one person betting £1000.00 on the other side would produce odds of almost evens

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking#Making_a_.27book.27_.28and_the_notion_of_overround.29

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This referendum result was fixed along time ago in a back room somewhere. They will just pluck the number out they want.

...you over estimate the ability of these simpletons.... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This referendum result was fixed along time ago in a back room somewhere. They will just pluck the number out they want.

When all the major arguments are lost there are aleays the cospiracy theories.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When all the major arguments are lost there are aleays the cospiracy theories.

There is no argument for me to lose, it is simply my opinion. I personally think the elections are rigged. You may not want to believe that, and that is your choice. but do not confuse my opinion with some sort of psychological syndrome.

If you think that elections are not rigged, I suggest you read some books on recent history.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The odds on England winning the world cup have always said it`s in the bag :lol:

You really need to workout how a bookmaker makes its money ....^^^^^^^ should give you a clue

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be fair this referendum ought to be more predictable than a competitive football tournament. If it is this the odds suggest people betting on Remain realise the outcome is likely to be Remain. Not that they are betting along with hopes and beliefs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The odds on England winning the world cup have always said it`s in the bag :lol:

You really need to workout how a bookmaker makes its money ....^^^^^^^ should give you a clue

Well I have seen 14 world cups and I cannot ever remember England being favourites, even in 1966. Anyhow, it will soon be June 24th some people are on the pitch, they think it's all over, it is now. Another 30 years of hurt for the Brexiteers coming up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I have seen 14 world cups and I cannot ever remember England being favourites, even in 1966. Anyhow, it will soon be June 24th some people are on the pitch, they think it's all over, it is now. Another 30 years of hurt for the Brexiteers coming up.

It will another 30 years of hurt for the Remainers as well as the Brexiters.

The E.U will just get more bloated and undemocratic,the vote could be irrelevant as it will probably fall apart within 30 years anyhow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will another 30 years of hurt for the Remainers as well as the Brexiters.

The E.U will just get more bloated and undemocratic,the vote could be irrelevant as it will probably fall apart within 30 years anyhow.

At least we will still have cheap roaming tariffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   76 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.