Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Frank Hovis

Ahead Of The Curve - Tomorrow's Crises

Recommended Posts

After the 2007 debt crisis was loudly trumpeted in advance here despite government claims that "nobody could have seen it coming" here are a few more that have been discussed here. Add your own.

Care homes crisis - about a quarter are so debt laden that they're not even covering their interest, council contracts pay so little that they make a loss on them, higher minimum wages increase costs and corner-cutting, the scandals that arise from corner-cutting cause increased regulation and more costs. Boom.

Rent a roof solar panels - mostly fitted about 5-8 years ago so a fair chunk of people who signed up for these are now looking to sell and move. But they can't because banks won't give buyers a mortgage so cash only - whoops.

BTL housing stock - mostly amateur landlords who believed the hype. Tax changes mean profits are wafer thin to non-existent and there is no money for structural maintenance. Walls, roofs get neglected until all that remains is an uninhabitable shell and the bills are so huge that demolition is the only practical option. Wholesale wealth destruction for the BTL is my pension people.

Any more?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, and of course mass negative equity and repossessions resulting from a couple of points rise in interest rates and the inevitable crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Care homes crisis -

All part of the demographic crisis. The clash between modern ideology and reality. Akin to the clash between socialism and reality that bust us in the '70s and Greece in modern times. See also NHS crisis, pensions crisis.

I called that one upwards of 30 years ago. When I also called the far more serious, longer term one of overpopulation. Not least the criminal idiocy of Geldof&co saving lives en masse in a famine without at the same time doing anything about a birthrate that relies on being balanced a high death rate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All part of the demographic crisis. The clash between modern ideology and reality. Akin to the clash between socialism and reality that bust us in the '70s and Greece in modern times. See also NHS crisis, pensions crisis.

I called that one upwards of 30 years ago. When I also called the far more serious, longer term one of overpopulation. Not least the criminal idiocy of Geldof&co saving lives en masse in a famine without at the same time doing anything about a birthrate that relies on being balanced a high death rate.

They're related, since the idiotic "solution" to the demographic issue seems to be "we need more young people!" Quite honestly demographics shouldn't even be an issue, makes so much technological "progress" and "efficiency" seem pretty pointless if we can't use that to support a larger portion of the population not working.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Growing global inequality..... when work no longer pays, who will pay the rents?....by creating ever more debt or using the hidden stored capital wealth?....or a global reset? ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest eight

I think that the Earth will become imperceptibly warmer year on year with catastrophic consequences for mankind.

Also gravity is getting stronger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New build flats I couldn't agree more on. 50 years max and that's with constant expensive maintenance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All part of the demographic crisis. The clash between modern ideology and reality. Akin to the clash between socialism and reality that bust us in the '70s and Greece in modern times. See also NHS crisis, pensions crisis.

I called that one upwards of 30 years ago. When I also called the far more serious, longer term one of overpopulation. Not least the criminal idiocy of Geldof&co saving lives en masse in a famine without at the same time doing anything about a birthrate that relies on being balanced a high death rate.

...and the criminal idiocy of our gov't continuing to pour money into countries that aren't viable for humans to occupy, bumping up the birth rate still more and raising yet more people to suffer and die from starvation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interest only mortgages - when people get to the end of their mortgage and the bank still owns their property

HTB and other government loans for buyers as they are due to mature about now. And some of those users will be looking to sell up "what do you mean that i have to pay it back, and they want how much?"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the 2007 debt crisis was loudly trumpeted in advance here despite government claims that "nobody could have seen it coming"

Yep, 'cause that all washed out as predicted. Gold and oil have gone up a hundredfold and you can't even give houses away these days. :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Care homes crisis - about a quarter are so debt laden that they're not even covering their interest, council contracts pay so little that they make a loss on them, higher minimum wages increase costs and corner-cutting, the scandals that arise from corner-cutting cause increased regulation and more costs. Boom.

Is this really due to the price the council pay ,rather than the cost of leverage these institutions entered into ,i know of a couple of small players locally in that game and they "seem" to be doing/have done extremely well out of it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A situation where most workers can be replaced with automation will arise at some point (you could argue about when but not really if) - how we deal with this (like the 'no need for money' idea in Star Trek) will define the future.

Three options:

1) Don't bother dealing with it. What's the point of building machines to do things that people can do if they don't mind doing them?

2) Hooray, we can all lounge around doing whatever we feel like far more often.

3) Complete economic collapse as the economic pressures become even more divorced from reality than they are now.

The last option is infinitely more likely. The sensible choice is picking and chosing bits from 1) and 2) but will be killed off by humanity's obsession with the new and shiny, intense dislike of actually having to think about things and make decisions, and in the short term being out-competed in the pursuit of 3).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A situation where most workers can be replaced with automation will arise at some point

Arose comprehensively last century, old chap. Not to mention the previous one. The Luddites got quite worked up about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest eight

Arose comprehensively last century, old chap. Not to mention the previous one. The Luddites got quite worked up about it.

They're a bunch of whinging bastards though really, aren't they? It would be nice to think that, even if it was just the once, they could actually be a bit more positive about a development for a change. It's no wonder people are always trying to get shot of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They're related, since the idiotic "solution" to the demographic issue seems to be "we need more young people!" Quite honestly demographics shouldn't even be an issue, makes so much technological "progress" and "efficiency" seem pretty pointless if we can't use that to support a larger portion of the population not working.

Of course! It's an old problem, so well-known it's become a nursery rhyme.

The difference today isn't in the nature of the problem, it's that it's gone global.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They're a bunch of whinging bastards though really, aren't they? It would be nice to think that, even if it was just the once, they could actually be a bit more positive about a development for a change. It's no wonder people are always trying to get shot of them.

It would be nice if people stopped leaping on every new piece of nonsense and trumpeting about it being wonderful and essential and valued things beyond how much tat they can buy and how much their laziness and impatience can be catered for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest eight

It would be nice if people stopped leaping on every new piece of nonsense and trumpeting about it being wonderful and essential and valued things beyond how much tat they can buy and how much their laziness and impatience can be catered for.

Well it's a good job Mark Zuckerburg didn't have your attitude. Because then where would the human race have been? Eh?? Eh??? WHERE, I ASK YOU, WHERE???!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it's a good job Mark Zuckerburg didn't have your attitude. Because then where would the human race have been? Eh?? Eh??? WHERE, I ASK YOU, WHERE???!!!

Chewing raw meat off mastadons in a cold cave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   100 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.