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I Was Wrong About Crash Says Roger Bootle

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I could not find an online version so I hope you can view this article below, it might take a little while to download.

click below

Wrong about Crash says Bootle

view attachment if the link does not work

Isn't Roger still saying the same thing as before, but just a yearly instead of 3 yearly figure.

Year Year Falls Yr1 ^Falls

2006 Yr1 94% 6% 6%

2007 Yr2 88% 12% 5%

2008 Yr3 83% 17% 5%

2009 Yr4 78% 22% 5%

2010 Yr5 73% 27%

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As the saying goes, if you're going to forecast, you'd better do it often.

Or as Niels Bohr said, making predictions is hard, especially if it's about the future.

I'm still amazed that professionals make these exact predictions about the future.

Experience and common sense should by now have educated them enough into not trying to discuss events that have not yet occurred.

Sure if you have experience over time, that you'd like to extrapolate into the future, well that could be construed as a approach, with caveats.

But to suck exact numbers out of the air is nonsense. This goes for all the VI's as well.

Property against reasonable, long term consistent measures is still more over-valued than at any time in recorded history.

And with greater overvaluation comes greater risk and greater chance of recession.

We're not out of the woods yet.

Edited by BandWagon

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Isn't Roger still saying the same thing as before, but just a yearly instead of 3 yearly figure.

Year Year Falls Yr1 ^Falls

2006 Yr1 94% 6% 6%

2007 Yr2 88% 12% 5%

2008 Yr3 83% 17% 5%

2009 Yr4 78% 22% 5%

2010 Yr5 73% 27%

That's my understanding of this article as well.

Perhaps Roger has realised that forecasting a 20% crash (albeit over three years) doesn't worry anyone because it is so far out of kilter with other forecasts and current thinking. Far more worrying to suggest 5% fall in prices next year as this seems less outlandish to most people.

It also reminds people of his position, i.e. you and I can see that in a way this is just the same news story as before but it is being republished which hopefully will make people stop and think.

I've said it before and I'll say it ago HPI in 2004 was so high that HPI in 2005 was only ever going to slow down, which it has to do before you get price falls. Now that HPI has slowed to nothing - some parts of the country still have slow growth in prices, other parts of the country have already experienced falls - next year prices can begin to fall, which they could not do in any significant way this year because the turnaround necessary would have been immense.

So 5% or over for 2006, first real year of falls sounds realistic, then people will start looking at Mr Bootle's predictions more seriously, perhaps.

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The newspapers used to open subjects on Roger B & the housing market like:

"Roger Bootle, who accurately predicted the last housing crash, says...."

I wonder if now it'll be:

"Roger Bootle, who failed miserably in his 2003 housing market predictions, is attempting to make more predictions and says......"

:rolleyes:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

"Roger Bootle, who failed miserably in his 2003 housing market predictions, is attempting to make more predictions and says......"

" Bankrupties will hit 100,000 annually by 2007" ;)

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Bootle has done a brave thing for a man in his position...admit he may be wrong. There is no solid evidence of a crash (apart from the wild anecdotes you read on various forums), so he made a U turn.

He's man enough to stand up and say he was wrong. His business may suffer for it, but that's life.

How about a little manly behaviour from forum posters here.

Mmmm, new thread me thinks...... :ph34r:

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He's man enough to stand up and say he was wrong. His business may suffer for it, but that's life.

How about a little manly behaviour from forum posters here.

Mmmm, new thread me thinks...... :ph34r:

Ahhh but will CE really suffer? If I was an investor or represented an institution I would rather he change his opinion with the facts than persist in believing in something that simply isn't happening.

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Ahhh but will CE really suffer? If I was an investor or represented an institution I would rather he change his opinion with the facts than persist in believing in something that simply isn't happening.

No offence, but to my mind he DID persist and has finally & reluctantly crumbled in the face of overwhelming evidence of being wrong.

As with any positive or negative prediction that is shown to be wrong, I bet the papers will forget all by the new year and go on writing all about unrelated CE predictions of doom & gloom.

The worst part though is that you bears will keep swallowing it, hook line & sinker.

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Guest The_Oldie
As with any positive or negative prediction that is shown to be wrong, I bet the papers will forget all by the new year and go on writing all about unrelated CE predictions of doom & gloom.

Surely the prospect of house prices returning to affordable levels is not "doom and gloom". Unless of course you're up to your eyeballs in debt, underpinned by over inflated house prices.

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Surely the prospect of house prices returning to affordable levels is not "doom and gloom". Unless of course you're up to your eyeballs in debt, underpinned by over inflated house prices.

I don't think it's the HP's themselves, I think it's the prospect of recession & repossesions that forms the doom & gloom part.

All makes for great sales figures on the newspapers.

Where's our gas cut-offs for example?

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I don't think it's the HP's themselves, I think it's the prospect of recession & repossesions that forms the doom & gloom part.

All makes for great sales figures on the newspapers.

You may call predicting a recession doom-mongering but I fail to see why people think recessions are a thing of the past that could never ever happen again.

Did people really believe Gordon Brown when he said no more boom and bust?

Or are people just dismissing the idea of a recession because they don't want it to be true?

A lot of people are now saying that they see signs that a recession is already starting and that is a huge change in sentiment from a year ago when things could only get better.

TTRTR have you listened to "things can only get better" one too many times? :D

Do you really think that forecasting doom and gloom (i.e. recession) is irresponisble and unlikely (bearing in mind our economy has been moving in boom / bust cycles for years)?

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House prices shouldn't run the economy - income, investment and real work should. Anyone thats says falling HP is doom & gloom is an idiot. The fact that HP can treble in 3 years and people still think that any rises is a good thing is insane.

Any economy that wants to get bigger and more efficient in the long term has to reward those that add value rather than people that buy a house and thing they are doing a service to the economy. If houses don't fall / crash then it will be all doom & gloom for the UK economy in the meduim-term as there will be a spectacular recession in the future.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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