Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
rollover

House Prices Hit Record Highs - But Could This Be A 'last Hurrah'?

Recommended Posts

Telegraph

House prices jumped in March, fuelled by a buy-to-let surge that sparked huge increases in London and the south east – but experts have warned this might be the last rise for some time. The UK’s average house price grew by 9pc in March, from 7.6pc in February - the highest rate since the same month last year. Prices fell dramatically in Scotland, by 6.1pc compared to the same month last year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. Average house prices in seven of the nine English regions are at record levels, with the price in London up 2.2pc on its previous record in January. The ONS said that high levels of house price growth were most likely due to investors bringing forward purchases before stamp duty on buy-to-let properties was hiked by 3pc. HMRC said that housing transactions surged by 70pc in March from a year ago.

“This is likely to be the last big rise for a while as more realism enters the market.

Edited by rollover

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Then the next question is how far do they fall? Do they "correct" by 5% or 10%, then flatline? 20%? If such numbers constitute a "crash", then housing will still be out of reach for most people, and be utterly unaffordable despite all talk of a "crash" and those who bought recently in negative equity. If we experience such a "crash", then forget about affordable housing. Suck it up, and go balls deep into debt, because housing will never be affordable again. We'd need an enormous crash for housing to become affordable - talking about £300,000 houses becoming £80,000 to £90,000 in value, which is a rough guideline to what house prices WOULD have been without liar loans, 7 years of ZIRP, QE, HTB etc etc.

In my opinion, you can cheer on a HPC, but it's a pyrrhic victory if houses remain unaffordable.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A massive fall and then a flat line for 20 years is what is needed.

The problem with any fall is that people will just see it as a chance to buy and will except prices to quickly jump back up. I suppose if people were more worried about trying to keep/get a job then this couldn't happen and banks wouldn't be lending such silly amounts.

Roll on high interest rates and mass unemployment. :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A massive fall and then a flat line for 20 years is what is needed.

The problem with any fall is that people will just see it as a chance to buy and will except prices to quickly jump back up. I suppose if people were more worried about trying to keep/get a job then this couldn't happen and banks wouldn't be lending such silly amounts.

Roll on high interest rates and mass unemployment. :unsure:

Roll on sensible interest rates. Sadly the rest (mass repossessions and unemployment) will follow....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Roll on sensible interest rates. Sadly the rest (mass repossessions and unemployment) will follow....

Haha, we could probably push that to, roll on low interest rate just above ZIRP, and that would likely cause woe for some people! The current situation is ridiculous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A massive fall and then a flat line for 20 years is what is needed.

The problem with any fall is that people will just see it as a chance to buy and will except prices to quickly jump back up. I suppose if people were more worried about trying to keep/get a job then this couldn't happen and banks wouldn't be lending such silly amounts.

Roll on high interest rates and mass unemployment. :unsure:

I hear this a lot. I'm not convinced, once prices are reported as heading south by x% MoM, xx% YoY etc. even the simplest of mathematicians will be able to conclude that waiting a month/year = saving another x%/xx%

Every bubble in history thought "this time was different" and they all ended the same way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Telegraph

House prices jumped in March, fuelled by a buy-to-let surge that sparked huge increases in London and the south east – but experts have warned this might be the last rise for some time. The UK’s average house price grew by 9pc in March, from 7.6pc in February - the highest rate since the same month last year. Prices fell dramatically in Scotland, by 6.1pc compared to the same month last year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. Average house prices in seven of the nine English regions are at record levels, with the price in London up 2.2pc on its previous record in January. The ONS said that high levels of house price growth were most likely due to investors bringing forward purchases before stamp duty on buy-to-let properties was hiked by 3pc. HMRC said that housing transactions surged by 70pc in March from a year ago.

“This is likely to be the last big rise for a while as more realism enters the market.

The problem is once prices rise, they dont usually fall, as vendors sit on their hands and the market stagnates. Also i cant see anything sticking, stuff is still selling if its a nice family home at silly money, lots of still quickly going under offer.

I cant see any falls until interest rates rise, and with carney in the during seat, that isnt going to happen for another n year (wonder what n may be?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They need to halve in price in London now.

..once we have a Prime Minister and government who will stop the money laundering ...this will happen....is it too much to ask for a stop to to the current criminal practices ...?.....and the government are part of it until they put a stop to it.......don't they get that simple point.....?...... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is once prices rise, they dont usually fall, as vendors sit on their hands and the market stagnates. Also i cant see anything sticking, stuff is still selling if its a nice family home at silly money, lots of still quickly going under offer.

I cant see any falls until interest rates rise, and with carney in the during seat, that isnt going to happen for another n year (wonder what n may be?)

correct, buyers before the tax change on viewings I had were mainly btl, after the change it was families and the odd btl, so much demand it will need a combination of things to all happen at pretty much the same time to blow the market.

as it is things have slowed but that's all that has happened and that was the intention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

The problem is once prices rise, they dont usually fall, as vendors sit on their hands and the market stagnates. Also i cant see anything sticking, stuff is still selling if its a nice family home at silly money, lots of still quickly going under offer.

I cant see any falls until interest rates rise, and with carney in the during seat, that isnt going to happen for another n year (wonder what n may be?)

Judging by your argument, spelling and grammar you're an office junior in an EA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

correct, buyers before the tax change on viewings I had were mainly btl, after the change it was families and the odd btl, so much demand it will need a combination of things to all happen at pretty much the same time to blow the market.

as it is things have slowed but that's all that has happened and that was the intention.

Trolling HPC from your desk at an EA... Slow day at work perchance?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any correction is talking about hundreds of thousands in many areas. Economic carnage as paper wealth is destroyed.

Those who can't see the difference between paper wealth and real wealth deserve to lose big style, sadly if that happens plenty of others will suffer too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is once prices rise, they dont usually fall, as vendors sit on their hands and the market stagnates. Also i cant see anything sticking, stuff is still selling if its a nice family home at silly money, lots of still quickly going under offer.

I cant see any falls until interest rates rise, and with carney in the during seat, that isnt going to happen for another n year (wonder what n may be?)

Apart from death and divorce and all those forced sellers.

People have been sitting on their hands, IO increase or any tightening on lending will make many forced sales.

Most BTL people will be wiped out with only a tiny change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

correct, buyers before the tax change on viewings I had were mainly btl, after the change it was families and the odd btl, so much demand it will need a combination of things to all happen at pretty much the same time to blow the market.

as it is things have slowed but that's all that has happened and that was the intention.

I take it you're an Estate Agent so have a vested interest. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's absolutely mind blowing. I left the UK almost 4 years ago (for no particular reason) and come on here to see what's going on every now and then. I accepted that the "inevitable" crash might take years or even that it won't happen but for this rapid house price inflation to keep going is stunning.

My rational side still say it has to crash hard eventually. So hard that even the people that see a buy-opportunity are scared off. Feels like the HPC movement has truly lost.

I'd still put my money on some major economic event at some point soon bringing this all down. My god it'll be a hard fall.

Edited by cica

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apart from death and divorce and all those forced sellers.

And those who suddenly realise that they can now buy a larger place even though theirs has fallen, and BTLers forcing a glut on the market as they try to shift before they lose too much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And those who suddenly realise that they can now buy a larger place even though theirs has fallen, and BTLers forcing a glut on the market as they try to shift before they lose too much.

Totally. Many people that own would be better off with lower prices. They just don't know it yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apart from death and divorce and all those forced sellers.

People have been sitting on their hands, IO increase or any tightening on lending will make many forced sales.

Most BTL people will be wiped out with only a tiny change.

Yep, bring it on!

Lots of talk on the MSM about budget deficits and weakening pound.

If we brexit, HPC has a chance, if not, more of the same HPI, to infinity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, bring it on!

Lots of talk on the MSM about budget deficits and weakening pound.

If we brexit, HPC has a chance, if not, more of the same HPI, to infinity.

Bookies odds are around 80% for a stay vote and they're normally not too far wrong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And yet some polls are putting Leave ahead by 2-3%. I'm still in awe that the Remain votes are so high, I genuinely don't know anyone voting to Remain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear this a lot. I'm not convinced, once prices are reported as heading south by x% MoM, xx% YoY etc. even the simplest of mathematicians will be able to conclude that waiting a month/year = saving another x%/xx%

Every bubble in history thought "this time was different" and they all ended the same way.

Happened after 2008, little pull back in London and then more of the same, not that HTB and all of the rest of the props didn't aid to some degree. I agree that it can't last forever but it is going to take something big changing for it to end and hopefully not come back for a few decades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, bring it on!

Lots of talk on the MSM about budget deficits and weakening pound.

If we brexit, HPC has a chance, if not, more of the same HPI, to infinity.

I think a crash of sorts will happen whether we leave or stay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   81 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.