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iLegallyBlonde

Ok If You Had To Place Your Bets Today When And By How Much Will The Prices Drop In 2006

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I would guess at 10% by the summer. Or 25% if the house is on with Karl Tatler or Clive Watkins on the wirral due to being massively overpriced to start with.

5% by summer would be great news with max 8% by yr end

Something tells me 3% by July with 5% by yr end

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Would bet it goes down but I wouldn't be prepared to put my money on when. The problem is there are too many randomly generated variables coming out of central government (central opposition) to bet about how long the imminent demise of greed can be held off.

Not sure that these kind of time limited speculations are helpful. I have noticed on this site that they acutally generate a level of anxiety as peoples focus is shifted into an urgency to manage and predict events over short time spans. Its a bit like predicting the weather, not very accurate on a day to day basis, but you can say with almost perfect certainty that it will be colder on average around November than it was in June. All cycles in real time are like that.

Patience is what is required and the ability at the same time be ready for the opportunity at whatever time it comes about.

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I expect it to be negative, a real (inflation adjusted) 8% fall.

But if Interest Rates fall significantly it may not fall at all. But...

Look at the debt figures.. people are still living beyond their means. What happens when they live within their means? Debt growth has slowed, savings have increased and look at the retail sector... A recession would be bad, real bad - but how far off I don't know. :huh: But it will come, and having massive debts is not a good idea!

Edited by Jason

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I would guess at 10% by the summer. Or 25% if the house is on with Karl Tatler or Clive Watkins on the wirral due to being massively overpriced to start with.

Could not agree more :)

Wirral is sooo overpriced. Wants the Liverpool prices without offering the Liverpool services. Got a cheek tbh.

TB

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Could not agree more :)

Wirral is sooo overpriced. Wants the Liverpool prices without offering the Liverpool services. Got a cheek tbh.

TB

I'm currently torn between renting for 5 years which feels risky or buying a cheap house that will do the job and won't upset me too much if it goes down by 30% when we move to the forever house - back in warwickshire, decissions, decissions

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Too many fudged figures to see the truth, but I wouldnt mind betting that there'll be some losing 10% on their purchase price when they sell.

Forced seller. Actual loss. Possibly the only true measure.

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I'm going to be a bit naughty and have two bites, if I may.

The fundamentals and the fact we are in the formative stages of a consumer led recession would lead me to say, 7% down.

However, being a contrarian, and the fact that literally everyone has discounted it leads to think it may happen, 15-20% up by year end.

Scenario one is, of course, more likely. But don't be at all surprised by scenario two as the final bit of air in the bubble. Remember, bull markets go on longer than *everyone* expects.

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The trigger for a HPC is going to be when a critical mass of sellers crack. Looking at buildstore plotsearch (cross referenced to some extent with rightmove) it appears to me that a lot of properties are on the market, go under offer, go back on the market, go under offer, go back ... almost ad nauseum. In a couple of cases they have been doing this for over a year. Nobody wants them enough to find the funds, or maybe the funds aren't forthcoming from the financiers, but the seller appear to be living in a perpetual spring where the price is sometime going to be right. In the meantime they have already lost 5% of the value in interest payments. When are sellers going to crack? If they aren't going to, why?

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The trigger for a HPC is going to be when a critical mass of sellers crack. Looking at buildstore plotsearch (cross referenced to some extent with rightmove) it appears to me that a lot of properties are on the market, go under offer, go back on the market, go under offer, go back ... almost ad nauseum. In a couple of cases they have been doing this for over a year. Nobody wants them enough to find the funds, or maybe the funds aren't forthcoming from the financiers, but the seller appear to be living in a perpetual spring where the price is sometime going to be right. In the meantime they have already lost 5% of the value in interest payments. When are sellers going to crack? If they aren't going to, why?

Agreed – the money supply or government borrowing is a long way from being in any way under control – there is plenty of credit still available and I think forced sales are some way off. Brown is stacking the MPC with his borrow & spend acolytes and the monetary tightening desperately needed to address the UK’s financial profligacy isn’t going to happen.

I reckon the only houses selling are going those in the higher values, and the price of those won’t change much. Therefore no movement.

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Who stats are we going to use. V.I. stats. 0% up.

reality 15 - 20% down on year.

I have to agree that the VI stats could be showing anything at the end of 2006 0% or +2% anything, they could even be making up next year's figures now.

My personal view is that it should be -8% by end of 2006, however there are so many variables.

Is this going to take longer than we think because there is still air in the bubble?

Is this going to happen much quicker than we think because so many in the UK are in debt (the highest level of bankruptcies ever could create a lot more forced sales than have ever been seen before)?

Are the BoE going to try to keep this going by lowering base rates or will US base rates force up UK base rates?

Hard to say and it may be even harder to say when VI will be having articles printed in the newspapers saying there has been a slight correction of -0.5% but now the market is rising again so buy, buy, buy!

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It will hover for a while yet, while people think the market is just stalling temporarily.

Then when they get their lightbulb moment they will start to sell, but at their "perceived" market price.

Once these folk realise that meteorite sized turd has hit the fan, prices will plummet.

This is gonna take time, so I reckon a minimal movement down of 1-5% with the calamity to follow in 2008.

This hacks me off now, as its just more time for me to wait.

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Guest barebear

5 - 10% rise I'm afraid.Dont think there will be any falls until there is a new government that will substantially raise interest rates on the back of the expose' of Gordenron's (I love that,so apt) false accounting.

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Guest barebear

I love these resurrected old threads - it just shows how wrong people can be. The more "certainty" with which the prediction is made, the more wrong it is IMHO.

Hope mines wrong.Minus not plus obviously.

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Depends where you are. West Midlands saw some decent declines in my area but nothing like we will see this year. Funny how this old thread came up in the face of all that City news with the big accountants and financial firms calling the crash. <_<

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Guest pioneer31

I love these resurrected old threads - it just shows how wrong people can be. The more "certainty" with which the prediction is made, the more wrong it is IMHO.

and that includes the 'experts' too (all the VI's)

I think people will wait for Spring to put their house up for sale, then by Autumn realise that the offers are few and far between (if any at all). By This time next year the penny will surely have dropped.

Selling a house in 2007 is going to be difficult

Edited by pioneer31

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Depends where you are. West Midlands saw some decent declines in my area but nothing like we will see this year. Funny how this old thread came up in the face of all that City news with the big accountants and financial firms calling the crash. <_<

If something happens all the time it can hardly be a coincidence when it happens at the same moment as something else.

Roger Bootle of Deloitte was calling a crash most weeks throughout 2004 and 2005.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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