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rantnrave

Halifax April 2016 -0.8%

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Bare in mind that they will have fiddled, errrr, seasonally adjusted this as far as they dare, and then a bit more. The reality will be considerably "worse".

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Bare in mind that they will have fiddled, errrr, seasonally adjusted this as far as they dare, and then a bit more. The reality will be considerably "worse".

Interesting. What are you saying, they went all TESCO and cant get away with it anymore?

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Upwards

I hate to pooh-pooh this idea that seasonal adjustment is a means by which statisticians hide the truth, but it is actually the means by which statisticians uncover the truth.

While there are several methods of calculating seasonal adjustment, and nobody seems to disclaim the method they use which might lead to some distrust, the greater distrust probably stems from a lack of understanding of the methods.

Clearly if house prices nearly always fall in April (I don't know that they do), then you can't reliably take a fall in prices in April as part of a downwards trend in prices.

If prices fell in April, and prices normally fall in April, then I personally am not interested in the fact that prices fell in April unless the fell more than usual.

Seasonal adjustment is based on sound mathematical principles, they are not your enemy.

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I hate to pooh-pooh this idea that seasonal adjustment is a means by which statisticians hide the truth, but it is actually the means by which statisticians uncover the truth.

While there are several methods of calculating seasonal adjustment, and nobody seems to disclaim the method they use which might lead to some distrust, the greater distrust probably stems from a lack of understanding of the methods.

Clearly if house prices nearly always fall in April (I don't know that they do), then you can't reliably take a fall in prices in April as part of a downwards trend in prices.

If prices fell in April, and prices normally fall in April, then I personally am not interested in the fact that prices fell in April unless the fell more than usual.

Seasonal adjustment is based on sound mathematical principles, they are not your enemy.

Big believer in seasoning, got to allow us a joke at the expense of Haliwide seasoning.

My take on the market is that it goes wild in March-April during a normal year and again September- October with a massive fall off in between and absolutely right to adjust for this seasonal activity.

Indeed prices actually rose in April by the raw data but it is such a hot month (probably the hottest month for property activity) that it got seasoned down.

the raw data....

March...£212,859 (688.9)

April...£214,104 (692.9) (new peak)

Edited by crashmonitor

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Big believer in seasoning, got to allow us a joke at the expense of Haliwide seasoning.

My take on the market is that it goes wild in March-April during a normal year and again September- October with a massive fall off in between and absolutley right to adjust for this seasonal activity.

Indeed prices actually rose in April by the raw data but it is such a hot month (probably the hottest month for property activity) that it got seasoned down.

the raw data....

March...£212,859 (688.9)

April...£214,104 (692.9) (new peak)

Crazy bubble madness

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I suspect that one reason for the distrust is the adjustment to the previous months figures which seems to be adjusted down (never mentioned in the new report) which makes the new months increse look even larger. In theory this previous monthly adjustment means that prices could show rises every month even with prices falling ... adjust 0.5% down ... and look the 0.3% increase shows prices are rising with this months 0.3% rise .... then adjust down again next month by 0.5% ....

If they were more transparent ... ie show both non-adjuted and adjusted figures, then maybe people would be less cynical, which is of course what the land registry do with their graphs.

Ah but that's not SA at work, that's a revision to the raw data. It will trigger a recalculation of the SA figure but SA is never retrospective if the raw data remains the same.

Be as cynical as you like about data revisions, but don't mistake them fir SA.

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