Has The Crash Started....

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yes/no

Lots of noise coming out now.

No one saw it coming...

Edited April 30, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere

[moonriver]

Indeed... the noise seems to suddenly getting louder on that front!

It used to be hard to find any negative coverage regarding the housing market at all, but only yesterday I easily found 4 tales connected with the crash, all made within days of each other!

Housing market on the edge!!

http://henrypryor.com/blog/2016/04/housing-market-on-the-edge/

slowdown warning from country wide...blame Brexit!!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3559633/Another-warning-EU-vote-worries-slow-UK-housing-market.html

house prices fall..blame stamp duty increase!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-3563062/House-price-growth-slows-wake-buy-let-purchases-beat-stamp-duty-hike.html

Foxtons fear dead summer

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3562105/Foxtons-summer-fears-booming-demand-stamp-duty-changes-came-led-surge-start-year.html

[zugzwang]

No.

Osborne's assumptions about GDP growth, employment and public borrowing are predicated on continuous HPI+++ forever (below).

In the event that he and his bankster chums win the referendum, he'll be back in the Autumn with more market-defying, property-dividing HPI swindles. Pensions to ISAs being my first guess.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

No.

Osborne's assumptions about GDP growth, employment and public borrowing are predicated on continuous HPI+++ forever (below).

In the event that he and his bankster chums win the referendum, he'll be back in the Autumn with more market-defying, property-dividing HPI swindles. Pensions to ISAs being my first guess.

I agree that this is their plan...but as 2007 showed their plans are as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Also...more props...higher prices...revolution by the young.

Like all things on life...balance is needed...Osborne might not yet it hut I'm sure the establishment do.

The banks ate bailed...let them act like banks now

Pcl was based on foreign investors...they've gone..China Will collapse. Its game over this time.

[Bland Unsight]

Using that OBR graph as evidence of anything other than the fact that the chocolate teapot OBR model of the economy thinks house prices are going up is not a very promising proposition in my opinion.

Apologies to those of you who've seen this before, but I've been plotting each new iteration of the OBR forecast on the same axes as the previous iterations and it highlights that the model is, to prefer the technical vocabulary, a bit shit.

Edited April 30, 2016 by Ghost Bird

[Venger]

No.

Osborne's assumptions about GDP growth, employment and public borrowing are predicated on continuous HPI+++ forever (below).

In the event that he and his bankster chums win the referendum, he'll be back in the Autumn with more market-defying, property-dividing HPI swindles. Pensions to ISAs being my first guess.

Only if you're a stickler for how some VI present information, and not willing to challenge what power is prepared to do (throw greedsters under the bus).

Eg; present incentive traps for wealthy long wave HPIers to double down in the belief that is Forever HPI, and go hard into BTL.***

Friends and family and renting associates on my side will borrow £millions in event of a HPC (fresh mortgage debt) to buy homes.

Credit boom. And owner side is sitting on £Trillions in equity to handle HPC, and banks stress tested for major HPC. If he has banker chums, then they should be happy about a future HPC, and him lining up the market for it.

How can you ignore C.24 and stamp duty hike for BTLers and would-be 2nd home buyers, and just see more market defying property-dividing HPI swindles.

There's a lot of that going on at HPC. Seemingly wilful refusal to accept some pretty impressive evidence of a political turn. On the other side though, even BTLer cheerleaders are getting their excuses ready for the coming HPC. Lol.

Aren't you answering your own questions? There are two major factors that you address directly and IMO absolutely correctly; bank insolvency "allow the banks to recover" and financial stability "full on crash spectacular". The first is largely dealt with but this has been partially accomplished by BTL lending which has exacerbated the magnitude of the second and made it even more unlikely that a slow and steady adjustment is possible, even if it was desired by the policy elite, and I'm not sure it is.

You seem to be arguing both that Osborne can't want house prices to correct and but also that eventually at some point a party will need to move away from the HPI religion. Why are you so reluctant to entertain the suggestion, which appears to be supported by a fair amount of evidence, that the Tories are starting that journey at present?

***

Have a listen to the Radio 4 Moneybox Buy to Let episode from last Saturday: http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b0631nq3TBH I'm surprised I haven't seen anything on the forum about it

This will give you an idea of who is paying these ridiculous prices. E.g. late middle aged couple paid £490,000 for a one bedroom flat, with stamp duty and furnishings that must be at least £510,000 outlay. They receive £1300 pcm rent, net after service charge etc. That's 3% yield gross! they seem to be happy about probably losing money month to month on the rent because they are in it for the long haul and the massive capital appreciation that will undoubtedly materialise over the next couple of decades. After all, the lady being interviewed bought her own flat in the area for £107,000 which is now worth £650,000!

There will be no price correction until these types of people have been well and truly scared away from BTL

£490,000 1 bed flat. £1,700pm ... after service charge we get around £1,300pm, which covers the mortgage at the moment. Fixed rate mortgage that goes up in 2 years.

Bought her own flat decades ago.

And I've lived in his area for 25/26 years. When I bought my flat it was £107,000. It went down to £82,000 and the mortgage rate went from 7% to 15%. Now my flat is worth about £650,000 and I feel reasonably confident it's a good investment.

"Husband went "Oh" - with a disappointed groan when heard about the Budget (clause 24), but it's swing and roundabouts and long term investment."

Edited April 30, 2016 by Venger

[Bland Unsight]

I've started thinking of the OBR Household debt to income chart as the Annie chart.

[zugzwang]

Using that OBR graph as evidence of anything other than the fact that the chocolate teapot OBR model of the economy thinks house prices are going up is not a very promising proposition in my opinion.

Apologies to those of you who've seen this before, but I've been plotting each new iteration of the OBR forecast on the same axes as the previous iterations and it highlights that the model is, to prefer the technical vocabulary, a bit shit.

Yes, it's bit shit. Every bit as bad as the BoE's output. You'd have thought Osborne would have distanced himself from it by now. His failure to do so suggests to me that it reflects his intentions. How else should we interpret it?

[zugzwang]

Only if you're a stickler for how some VI present information, and not willing to challenge what power is prepared to do (throw greedsters under the bus).

Eg; present inventive traps for wealthy long wave HPIers to double down in the belief that is so, and go hard into BTL.

Friends and family and renting associations on my side will borrow £millions in event of a HPC. Credit boom. And owner side is sitting on £Trillions in equity to handle HPC, and banks stress tested for major HPC. If he has banker chums, then they should be happy about a future HPC, and him lining up the market for it.

How can you ignore C.24 and stamp duty hike for BTLers and would-be 2nd home buyers, and just see more market defying property-dividing HPI swindles.

There's a lot of that going on at HPC. Seemingly wilful refusal to accept some pretty impressive evidence of a political turn. On the other side though, even BTLer cheerleaders are getting their excuses ready for the coming HPC. Lol.

Who's ignoring the BTL tax changes? One hopes they'll moderate the stampede into BTL, no sign of that happening yet.

Osborne's record speaks for itself. In opposition: no criticism of HPI or Brown prior to 2008. In govt: Massive HPI+++ post-2012.

[Bland Unsight]

Yes, it's bit shit. Every bit as bad as the BoE's output. You'd have thought Osborne would have distanced himself from it by now. His failure to do so suggests to me that it reflects his intentions. How else should we interpret it?

That you don't distance yourself from your window dressing?

What, in your opinion, is the purpose of the OBR?

[canbuywontbuy]

Friends and family and renting associates on my side will borrow £millions in event of a HPC (fresh mortgage debt) to buy homes.

Credit boom. And owner side is sitting on £Trillions in equity to handle HPC, and banks stress tested for major HPC. If he has banker chums, then they should be happy about a future HPC, and him lining up the market for it.

I'm wondering why any government didn't act on the obvious sooner? Low house prices = freeing up of massive amounts of money to the wider economy. So fukcing obvious. Only meaningless bad "sentiment" from owners and BTLs who "feel bad" (but pay the same monthly payments) and lack of MEWing free money from unproductive fukcwits is the supposed downside.

Edited April 30, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[Venger]

Who's ignoring the BTL tax changes? One hopes they'll moderate the stampede into BTL, no sign of that happening yet.

Osborne's record speaks for itself. In opposition: no criticism of HPI or Brown prior to 2008. In govt: Massive HPI+++ post-2012.

LOL - You can't tell the greedster Forever HPI types what you're doing, else they won't be part of the rush to put down their 25% into BTL (and their own homes on the line) to absorb the HPC.

A hunter with a visible snare catches few rabbits.

Renter savers just refuse to pay extreme prices (although some hpcers have decided to buy, but limited their risks by buying strictly what is more affordable at lower end - although makes me sad on occasion - when they're top professionals and limited themselves to lower end housing, although houses they will be happy with for they're not greedy).

It wasn't going to be achieved overnight, from when ConDems first came to power. Recapping of the banks. And it needed the greedy double down. (HTB just a trigger for more BTL speculation, and if needs be, HTB suckers can be given a bit of forbearance, although overall the debt levels seem manageable there - circa £190K).

I think this is a really, really interesting and important question. My naive and unconsidered perspective is that there is no real evidence yet of a groundswell of opinion that we have an issue regarding housing financialisation. My possibly arrogant perspective is that the attendant issues (how banks work, how money is created and how these things interact with the prices paid for land and who ends up with a claim on rents from land) are too abstruse for the level of discourse that takes place between the electorate and the political class, (which is why, until the Summer Budget* the question was always framed as if the only part that mattered was not building enough houses).

My gut instinct is that we end up fighting proxy wars which address these issues (e.g. potential evisceration of the buy-to-let) but dialogue regarding the issues themselves likely to inform action is only conducted privately amongst elites even if it is conducted at all, (which I'm not sure it is). For example, Andy Haldane worries his big wonkish head about some parts of the puzzle but does so from a particular intellectual perspective which may fail to capture the social welfare questions which are implicit in the idea of providing "long term affordable housing". The only place where I've seen all of this drawn together is in Housing: Where's the plan and whilst I don't buy all the analysis or all the answers I do acknowledge that Barker at least makes an attempt to cover all the bases.

* I really did find Mark Garnier's remarks in the Daily Mail very striking.

Quote

Mark Garnier, Conservative MP for Wyre Forest, said the Chancellor’s changes should bring private landlords’ tax relief more in line with the rates of relief companies could claim, currently 20 per cent.

He added: ‘Buy-to-let has massively distorted the property market, resulting in rises in prices. We also don’t particularly want the nation’s working capital in non-productive assets. When you have a buy-to-let you don’t employ people to create widgets or manufacture aircraft engines.’

Source

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I'm wondering why any government didn't act on the obvious sooner? Low house prices = freeing up of massive amounts of money to the wider economy. So fukcing obvious. Only meaningless bad "sentiment" from owners and BTLs who "feel bad" (but pay the same monthly payments) and lack of MEWing free money from unproductive fukcwits is the supposed downside.

Their bubble as very conveniently timed for the election....its well out of control now

[Noallegiance]

I'm wondering why any government didn't act on the obvious sooner?

The master's tools will never be used to bring down the master's house.

[billybong]

Using that OBR graph as evidence of anything other than the fact that the chocolate teapot OBR model of the economy thinks house prices are going up is not a very promising proposition in my opinion.

Apologies to those of you who've seen this before, but I've been plotting each new iteration of the OBR forecast on the same axes as the previous iterations and it highlights that the model is, to prefer the technical vocabulary, a bit shit.

It's very remarkable how the December 2014 "forecast" just a few short months before the 2015 general election was so extremely bullish (debt being "growth") compared to those before 2014 as well as those after the election.

Some people would call that downright dodgy forecasting just for the sake of (pretend) bull market electioneering.

Of course why wouldn't they - most voters keep falling for it.

Edited May 1, 2016 by billybong

[Venger]

The master's tools will never be used to bring down the master's house.

HPI / BTL forever outlook, for some, but others, a few, downsizing/downsized into that forever HPI.

Osborne's parents downsize

Original story

http://www.dailymail...res-street.html

House they downsized from (going from DM's internal pics), sells at £12.8m.

http://www.rightmove...country=england

Anyway, could it be not what the mouth says, but what the hands do?

Possibly some big profit on that sale, back from whatever year they originally upsized/bought it.

HPC would matter less to someone (I would think) if you positioned yourself to downsize to another (top end expensive house) but one which cost considerably less, which you maybe own outright, in an area you still love, and still had a fat savings balance to cushion you if economy turned really bad A bit like a rich man's STR, but where they're not inclined to rent, or go too down-market?

I'm wondering why any government didn't act on the obvious sooner? Low house prices = freeing up of massive amounts of money to the wider economy. So fukcing obvious. Only meaningless bad "sentiment" from owners and BTLs who "feel bad" (but pay the same monthly payments) and lack of MEWing free money from unproductive fukcwits is the supposed downside.

Exactly.

Landlords Now Own More Property Than Mortgage Holders

Started by richc, Jan 15 2016 03:53 PM

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/208050-landlords-now-own-more-property-than-mortgage-holders/

[Noallegiance]

HPI / BTL forever outlook, for some, but others, a few, downsizing/downsized into that forever HPI.

Exactly.

The quote could read:

The master's tools will never be used to bring down the master's house. They'll move house first.

[Bland Unsight]

Osborne's record speaks for itself. In opposition: no criticism of HPI or Brown prior to 2008. In govt: Massive HPI+++ post-2012.

I must admit to being slightly intimidated the other day when Neverwhere and Fully Detached managed to take a thread off topic by comparing chicken afros. I feel that it was probably a record of achievement that is likely to stand for a while, so I offer this as an homage to that.

Further up the thread I posted a clip from the 1982 Annie film. I'm a lousy musician, but as an a cappella rendition, it's pretty handy - and I'd bet my own money that when you watch the clip it's not ADR'ed - that's a take and you are watching a kid sing.

Annie opened off Broadway in 1976 and therefore must have been written before 1976, as the US economy emerged from the recession set off by the oil shock.

The YouTube video upthread ends before the rest of the cast join in. The other characters in the scene are FDR and Eleanor Roosevelt, (alongside Daddy Warbucks played by a young Sir Albert Finney - he really commits to the scene BTW).

Hence this nonsense musical is channelling (at some level) magical folk memories of FDR and the end of the Great Depression.

Where I am going with this?

The rise of cheap computing power has given us the auto-tuning of vocals. Check this shit out...

Has the crash started? When you have the OBR giving you auto-tuned nonsense and hoi polloi dreaming of some FDR substitute picking up the tune you know it's desperate already, but that doesn't mean we're there yet. Personally, I'll call crash after, not before. When Greater London is 25% down and prices have been falling for over a year I'll agree we're crashing. At this point the mood music is changing, but that's no guide to what happens next.

Hopefully the PovertyLater guys shitting bricks is the warm up act. We shall see.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Ghost Bird

[Greg Bowman]

I'm wondering why any government didn't act on the obvious sooner? Low house prices = freeing up of massive amounts of money to the wider economy. .

So people can buy imported tat, cruises, and cars on pcp as they did with the PPI money, is that wider economy you are thinking about ?

[Venger]

So people can buy imported tat, cruises, and cars on pcp as they did with the PPI money, is that wider economy you are thinking about ?

Really quite amusing coming from the capitalist, out there employing people and creating productive value in the real economy.

Getting into BTL is pretty common in my experience. God knows how this 'business model' will play out over the next 20 years...

Playing golf with a mate on Monday afternoon we both run SMB's employing 50 odd people each and contractors etc

We spoke about pensions and we lamented the fact you get shafted at every turn he has one BTL I don't have any he said compared to real business it was F**** waste of time and is looking to get shot.

The truth is if you are good at B2B selling BTL is hard work for little returns. For instance part of our portfolio is data lines three year contracts once there in in no maintenance normally no hassle (a little over simplified I know)

So you are effectively getting rent for three years with fixed costs. Makes BTL look very hard work indeed

The ONLY motivations of BTL in the last decade afaik have been capital appreciation and social qudos. I think the latter may have been the strongest.

______________

Some of us want homeownership with houses - widespread more affordable homeownership - so not at mercy of s21s, and having somewhere to own in old age (not insecure tenancy).

Not to nark on about houses simply being poor returns with pensions, and hard-work, but still keeping possession regardless to either glory/moan on about on the golf course. No brain that.

The idea that you are somehow helping people is a complete fallacy, it would be like me cornering the market in dialysis machines, renting them to hospitals at inflated prices and then claiming I was "saving lives".

Your simply a middle man in the chain between someone's income and the mortgage payments to buy the house.

At the end of the day the world doesn't owe you a pension, especially one funded by other peoples income while giving nothing of value back to the economy. If you want an income then make a real productive investment in something, start a business, get a better job and save more money i.e. do one of the things the people who incomes you arn't able to farm any more have to do.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Venger

[Si1]

So people can buy imported tat, cruises, and cars on pcp as they did with the PPI money, is that wider economy you are thinking about ?

Indeed. Cunard, p&o, British airways, rolls Royce jet engines and Airbus airliners (25% ish made in UK), as well as the international service industry that British companies excel at.

[Venger]

Taking a risk of heating this up....

Greg, I seem to recall you posting around 2010/11, outlining how the owner of the house you bought (at around that time), was in a bit of a financial bind, but was sensible and accepted your offer. You got the house, and I recall you suggested he later got back on his feet in business.

Wasn't it an 'around a 2002 price I paid'.

'Still see him in the village'. (close to that).

However I'm relying on my memory, for I can't find the post. One below outlines enough of the position though.

Funny how buying a home at lower prices is good for some people, but not so appealing when others hope to have same opportunity, into second stage super HPI reflation.

And what pushback when a hpcer claims they don't mind if they it's from distressed owners, or distressed BTLers, so long as market plays out. Usurping lol. (Hardships of BTLer pensions too sigh, but 'getting into BTL is surprisingly common').

Personally don't see the sums working out without a crash so dramatic that the last thing you want is cash in the bank or a house.

I STR'd in 2007 and brought early 2010 which was good timing but absolute 100% fluke. What was in place then which isn't now was:

1. Crash happening
2. No gov support for house prices
3. Decent interest rates in Iceland ! Yep thx Alistair
4. Panicking mid chain sellers renting decent family houses 4/5 bed close to London for circa £1600 a month
5. Low gold price so punted on gold and won

On reflection the house I sold didn't crash much, but the larger house I bought dropped £150k and was effectively a step away from repo we bought unoccupied and with some improvements and decoration half finished but the new staircase was in ( funny priorities )

So from personal experience it can work but only really if you bet large i.e STR and then trade up. A big risk indeed

Edit: meant repo not repro bit sad Eddie George didn't pick me up on that

-----------

Sanctimonious t1t. I've far more sympathy for families getting kicked out of private rentals by amatuer BTL tossers because they are behind on rent and the BTL'er must protect his 'pension'. Whether it's a family with kids or not doesn't make a difference to me.

Doesn't it so why should society give a t*** about yours and guitarmans small time property aspirations? As you spiteful little buggers keep pointng out we hold most of the cards and in truth you aren't even that good at protesting are you? Take a look at the empty tents outside St Paul's of an evening.

In any confrontional situation the stronger party has to make a decision on concessions based on the perceived strength of the upsurper - you youngsters aren't reallly forcng us to do that at the mo are you? As Guitarman said back off to play Rage or whtaever mind sapping c*** you have on your x box.

I have a lot of sympathy with the situation of your generation but you know what stuff like that is enough to make me suscribe to the Daily Mail

Edited May 1, 2016 by Venger

[canbuywontbuy]

So people can buy imported tat, cruises, and cars on pcp as they did with the PPI money, is that wider economy you are thinking about ?

Alpha boomer doesn't like the idea of younger generations having affordable housing, but likes posting on a site called housepricecrash.co.uk? Tell me "I have it wrong" - but looking at your post history, it seems your identity is wrapped up in the idea that you're so much better than younger generations. As for tat, lower house prices would stunt the rise of the pound shops and discounters. We might be able to buy British again! Whenever I go to Beckworth Emporium out in the sticks - an emporium of boutique food and drink all made in the UK - high quality, expensive stuff - I can see that most people there are 50+. Younger generations have been habituated into buying tat because that's all they can afford. Mind you, they don't half spend a lot on rent or a mortgage - they don't hold back there.

Edited May 1, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[Venger]

Also, you bought from a person facing challenging financial circumstances who needed to sell, but have given it the big guilt trip to any other buyer who might do the same. Good money replacing bad. Capitalism.

Although it's not where my focus is at. HPC, and too often the main theme is thinking about the few with big mortgages, rather than all those who own their properties outright, or have very small mortgages. And of course, plight of the 'human' BTLers it would affect, "who were just investing because they thought Gov wanted them to as pension". Aww.

As for your wish to see a property crash through substantial rate rises so you can buy a family home, you could be displacing a family who just happen to have fallen on hard times illness, job loss etc.

However on here the desire for a property crash so doing nothing other than be in the right place to buy a house you couldn't otherwise afford is seemed as a good thing whilst making a profit through the same circumstances when profits rise is seen as some form of evil is very strange.

It is just speculation by another name - if you want a 'nice' house plan and work towards it or as we say believe in God but keep rowing.

The prices in areas I follow are way too high, and I'm not competing to buy in a market saturated with BTLer speculators, as it has been last few years. Guilt trip much?

Not speculation by another name. Limiting risks, and looking for value, as you did yourself. Except not from an owner outright with no mortgage, but from a distressed seller in your purchase.

[Amiinsane]

Also, you bought from a person facing challenging financial circumstances who needed to sell, but have given it the big guilt trip to any other buyer who might do the same. Good money replacing bad. Capitalism.

Although it's not where my focus is at. HPC, and too often the main theme is thinking about the few with big mortgages, rather than all those who own their properties outright, or have very small mortgages. And of course, plight of the 'human' BTLers it would affect, "who were just investing because they thought Gov wanted them to as pension". Aww.

The prices in areas I follow are way too high, and I'm not competing to buy in a market saturated with BTLer speculators, as it has been last few years. Guilt trip much?

Not speculation by another name. Limiting risks, and looking for value, as you did yourself. Except not from an owner outright with no mortgage, but from a distressed seller in your purchase.

bowman is another 'heads I win, tails you lose' property owner who has jumped the fence and now only thinks about the value of his investment, how he did the right thing due to his superior financial knowledge and how anyone under 35 is completely feckless if they do anything other than use their money on rent or a ridiculous mortgage.

Libertas on the home page is another one. Always crowing about rises in Enfield and pointing to any news about the market as proof he's some sort of Warren Buffet genius. All of you have benefited from a distorted market and a government who can't find money for anything else but can always seem to come up with cash to prop up house prices.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Amiinsane