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gruffydd

British Housing Market On The Edge - From An Insider

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That British housing "boom" didn't last long did it - and we're already in the bust stage, it seems: http://henrypryor.com/blog/2016/04/housing-market-on-the-edge/

This is volatility on steroids!

When someone like this writes "The problem for my friend and for all those looking to buy or sell is that at present we are parachuting in the dark. We don’t know how fast we are falling and we have no idea where the bottom is."... GULP GULP GULP GULP GULP!

Edited by gruffydd

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I suspect that there are lot of EAs (certainly the more experienced ones at least) who knew the game was up when the stamp duty changes were announced. So they decided to ramp property as much as they could so that they could collect as much commission as possible (courtesy of BTL'ers) before the market imploded.

They'll say everything is fine, those who have a brain will know fully well they are lying and are just trying to talk-up the market. The halfwits will actually believe everything will be fine.

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feels that way. Just feels like 2006/7 again

Not to me, it doesn't. Summer and autumn of 2007 I was afraid, genuinely scared. I would go into the back garden, walking up and down barefoot and enjoying the grass between my toes, and worry about how I was going to feed my parents and nephews, at the weekend walk around town and wonder how all these people could walk around without knowing the devastation that was imminent. I started trading currencies, the Dow and FTSE for extra cash. I started reading survival books, Dr Copper on CNBC and Bloomberg had me grabbing my armchair in angst, then celebrating when it (briefly) went over 4 somethings a something (dollars a pound?) before head-faking and dropping below. I stuck several thousand on a synthetic ETF for cotton, then a grand on another synthetic ETF on grains, then another on corn. All backed by AIG so they all went to zero briefly late 2007. By then the CBs were in full-on 'save our economy' mode and I was less worried. Bernanke was done with his 'No trouble here, move on' and into his 'We'll do anything we can to save the global economy' stuff. By then I was worried in a more detached way, like 'OK, if we're doomed then what-are-you-gonna-do?' The central banks have cottoned on, if they can't save us, no one can.

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Not to me, it doesn't. Summer and autumn of 2007 I was afraid, genuinely scared. I would go into the back garden, walking up and down barefoot and enjoying the grass between my toes, and worry about how I was going to feed my parents and nephews, at the weekend walk around town and wonder how all these people could walk around without knowing the devastation that was imminent. I started trading currencies, the Dow and FTSE for extra cash. I started reading survival books, Dr Copper on CNBC and Bloomberg had me grabbing my armchair in angst, then celebrating when it (briefly) went over 4 somethings a something (dollars a pound?) before head-faking and dropping below. I stuck several thousand on a synthetic ETF for cotton, then a grand on another synthetic ETF on grains, then another on corn. All backed by AIG so they all went to zero briefly late 2007. By then the CBs were in full-on 'save our economy' mode and I was less worried. Bernanke was done with his 'No trouble here, move on' and into his 'We'll do anything we can to save the global economy' stuff. By then I was worried in a more detached way, like 'OK, if we're doomed then what-are-you-gonna-do?' The central banks have cottoned on, if they can't save us, no one can.

Have you ever considered meditation?

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Or medication.

Ouch!

I wasn't being entirely facetious btw, Up the spout. I certainly admit to rushing out and buying a load of canned food and rice and pasta when it all kicked off last time (not least as I clearly recall nearly getting hit by a bus whilst chasing an escapee tin of potatoes down the street). And if it did all kick off tomorrow I would have a lot to lose. But there's sod all I can do about it, and as long as the sun still rises in the morning I'd say I'm a damn sight better prepared to pick it all up again than the vast majority of people.

And I am sure you would be too :)

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It would be terrible if someone on the telly said house prices were about to tumble wouldn't it!

Sorry to ask a (maybe dumb) question as I haven't watched tv in 20 years ... but does anybody on TV ever ever ever mention it?

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Sorry to ask a (maybe dumb) question as I haven't watched tv in 20 years ... but does anybody on TV ever ever ever mention it?

I don't watch much TV and only watch factual/news programmes but no, I've never heard anything other than constant HPI ramping on any mainstream TV channel.

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Sorry to ask a (maybe dumb) question as I haven't watched tv in 20 years ... but does anybody on TV ever ever ever mention it?

You get the odd documentary or even series, clips on Newsnight etc - nothing quite prime-time though. I tend to see it as like those odd comments by Bank Governers that seem sneaked out for the purpose of pointing back if/when it all goes wrong.

Biggest cringeworthy problem is the frequent wheeling out of estate agents as market experts, yes but...really no, no, no. There was a recent link to a Henry Pryor article confirming this VI distortion (Pryor allegedly being the sole rent-a-balance).

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You get the odd documentary or even series, clips on Newsnight etc - nothing quite prime-time though. I tend to see it as like those odd comments by Bank Governers that seem sneaked out for the purpose of pointing back if/when it all goes wrong.

Biggest cringeworthy problem is the frequent wheeling out of estate agents as market experts, yes but...really no, no, no. There was a recent link to a Henry Pryor article confirming this VI distortion (Pryor allegedly being the sole rent-a-balance).

Most EAs barely last a full economic cycle, never mind multiple ones.

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Most EAs barely last a full economic cycle, never mind multiple ones.

Long enough to ensure the buggering up of everybodies lives runs smoothly.

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Not to me, it doesn't. Summer and autumn of 2007 I was afraid, genuinely scared.

Yeah, the bankers did a great job of convincing everybody that the lights would go out and there would be tanks on the street if governments didn't bail out all of their bad investments (basically a gamble on HPI forever). Doesn't make it true though.

Edited by Dorkins

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You get the odd documentary or even series, clips on Newsnight etc - nothing quite prime-time though. I tend to see it as like those odd comments by Bank Governers that seem sneaked out for the purpose of pointing back if/when it all goes wrong.

Biggest cringeworthy problem is the frequent wheeling out of estate agents as market experts, yes but...really no, no, no. There was a recent link to a Henry Pryor article confirming this VI distortion (Pryor allegedly being the sole rent-a-balance).

Eh? A documentary or even a whole series dedicated to anything even remotely property market bearish? On mainstream TV?

Well I've certainly never seen it!

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There's a gap in the market for a TV programme encouraging people to bid 20% under asking and to throw insults at EAs. I'd watch it.

:lol:

Not as catchy as "Homes under the hammer" but "Shit ex-BTLs fail to reach the reserve price" will do for a start as a working title.

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Eh? A documentary or even a whole series dedicated to anything even remotely property market bearish? On mainstream TV?

Well I've certainly never seen it!

Yes of course - blink and you miss them though ! This site catches a lot of them.

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You know when the top of the pyramid is dead...the mugs at the bottom haven't worked out that all that promised wealth is worth about as much as the promise by the boe to pay the bearer on demand

What a scam

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