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Nationwide Index - House Prices Increase Despite Btl Changes

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I would be interested to know he volume in March as I would hope it is significantly down. The prices achieved would be based on the general momentum and previous sales. Would always take a few months to turn round in the style of the coyote running off a cliff

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Look at the spike in transactions on the PDF. Highest in 10 years. People are muppets

Lol. There's gold in them there hills. The shovel salesmen at the banks will be doing very nicely out of it.

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Look at the spike in transactions on the PDF. Highest in 10 years. People are muppets

That is fantastic, and just happens to Mach 2007.

It truly is stunning how stupid people and lenders are.

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A couple of thoughts on the report and in general.

  • To investor's property price rises of 2%+ look fantastic against saving rates, no wonder anyone [without sense] with a BTL deposit if piling in.
  • According to RICS the number of properties on estate agents’ books was already close to all-time lows on data extending back to the late 1970s. Indeed this is true, there is a massive shortage of properties for sale, this is because there is the largest proportion of the housing stock ever owned by landlords. This is against the backdrop of there being the largest number of physical properties in existence ever and a stable dwelling to population ratio.

If / when landlords sell up there will be the mother of all crashes, estate agents will be turning away stock and properties will be selling of eBay for pounds. The stock of properties for sale will explode exponentially as it will be the exact inverse of what is happening today.

I think 10%+ yearly falls would be a key trigger for landlords offloading, much like when stocks start to fall people offload attempting to lock in gains and prevent losses.

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I thought april started slowly...I think there was a bit of hesitation amongst buyers because this BTL deadline had been flagged as a possible crash scenario. Also Easter was probably still hanging in there causing a reduction in activity.



I have made the point (in the past) that a lot of new money that entered the market between January-March from bored boomers who want to play amateur landlord has far from worked its way out of the Market. Old fashioned chains aren't really doable consisting of half a dozen or more properties, too much to go wrong in the era of super strict conveyancing. More probably...boomer buys a BTL and young couple move onto second ''rung'' (yes I know it's more of a snake than a ladder). Seller to couple then moves in with his relatives and starts another chain in May when he finally parts with his windfall.

I thought the indicies would be down a month ago,they aren't. Actually +1.1% without seasoning, but April is usually a hot month. The acid test will come during the usual summer holidays' meltdown in activity.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Noddy from the Nationwide on BBC News a few minutes ago desperately trying to talk up the market.

A sure sign the market has gone.

Well done to the BBC to support the odious money lenders over the people who fund them though.

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Surely the thread title is misleading?

The market was on steroids with BLT landlords rushing to buy before the stamp duty deadline.

That's my take also: it's not despite the BTL changes, it's because of them.

Further evidence that BTL may be moving the market IMO.

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Look at the spike in transactions on the PDF. Highest in 10 years. People are muppets

Proves that most people who buy property already have a one or more of them, the rich fleecing the poor again, after all, this is generation rent.

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This forum gives you all the info you need, the spike before April in this thread, the exposure of banks to out of control BTL lending.

The banks themselves struggling to make money even though they are given money for nothing.

The BTL bubble is over the government have finally stepped in. But in my opinion it is too late, the banks will suffer because of this and we may get financial crisis two sooner than it appears.

Obviously there are no guarantees, you make your judgement and see what happens.

Personally I think that because banks call loans assets and for the most part have lent wrecklessly to BTL, the quality of those 'assets' is going to plummet.

We have had 7 years of no holds barred economy fixing and rebalancing, yet by every measure except housing cost, things are worse than ever, a lot worse.

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During the financial crash, I'm sure I read somewhere that things were not going to get seriously bad until there was a credit card crash.

Just imagine if all the free money dried up and suddenly people had to pay 15-20% on their credit card bills? Bring on credit crunch part 2!

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Even allowing for the false zero on the vertical axis making the graph a little deceptive, this graph still suggests that there may have been some kind of structural change to the UK housing market in 1996 <_<

RICS%2Bstock%2Bfrom%2BNW%2BHPI%2BApril%2

Source: Nationwide HPI report April 2016

If that run up in stock into 2008 was nervous BTL quitting the game things are going to be f**king interesting if the sector ever gets properly spooked.

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Even allowing for the false zero on the vertical axis making the graph a little deceptive, this graph still suggests that there may have been some kind of structural change to the UK housing market in 1996 <_<

RICS%2Bstock%2Bfrom%2BNW%2BHPI%2BApril%2

Source: Nationwide HPI report April 2016

If that run up in stock into 2008 was nervous BTL quitting the game things are going to be f**king interesting if the sector ever gets properly spooked.

Nobody is selling and the landlords are hoarding.

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Even allowing for the false zero on the vertical axis making the graph a little deceptive, this graph still suggests that there may have been some kind of structural change to the UK housing market in 1996 <_<

RICS%2Bstock%2Bfrom%2BNW%2BHPI%2BApril%2

Source: Nationwide HPI report April 2016

If that run up in stock into 2008 was nervous BTL quitting the game things are going to be f**king interesting if the sector ever gets properly spooked.

Do you notice from 2008->2010 volumes were increasing due to lower prices.

I'll leave you to decide what year FLS/HTB were introduced and when prices started to go up again.

The baby is about to blow.

There's nothing worth buying even if one could or wanted to.

#CaveatEmptor

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