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reverand_cat

Scotland Begins Downwards Slide...

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Edinburgh sales seem very quick at the moment. Looks to be mainly in smaller one and two bed flats though. I reckon that % drop number is just people getting back into buying smaller places in larger numbers - due to the various ridiculous 'help' schemes around - and this is making the overall 'average' sold price much lower than it was last year. When in fact the market is fairly busy at the bottom end.

As for Aberdeen though - totally 100% goosed.

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Edinburgh sales seem very quick at the moment. Looks to be mainly in smaller one and two bed flats though. I reckon that % drop number is just people getting back into buying smaller places in larger numbers - due to the various ridiculous 'help' schemes around - and this is making the overall 'average' sold price much lower than it was last year. When in fact the market is fairly busy at the bottom end.

As for Aberdeen though - totally 100% goosed.

Mmm maybe, but I'm not seeing any real shift to downsizing or smaller buys. I'm seeing (Table 4) extremely heavy drops in market values, prices paid, and volumes sold right across all property types (detached, semis, terraced and flats). All categories are being hammered.

Right across the whole report: Look at the 'quarterly change' figures in the right-hand column. Good god. The drops are accelerating, and fast. And at the one time of year that used to be reliably ticking upwards. Can't wait to see next quarter's figures.

All congratulations to Scotland. Now let it happen in England.

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Mmm maybe, but I'm not seeing any real shift to downsizing or smaller buys. I'm seeing (Table 4) extremely heavy drops in market values, prices paid, and volumes sold right across all property types (detached, semis, terraced and flats). All categories are being hammered.

Right across the whole report: Look at the 'quarterly change' figures in the right-hand column. Good god. The drops are accelerating, and fast. And at the one time of year that used to be reliably ticking upwards. Can't wait to see next quarter's figures.

All congratulations to Scotland. Now let it happen in England.

Well I am afraid to say this report just shows how stats can tell a completely different story to reality.

Aberdeen and Edinburgh numbers are very close - but in reality whats actually happening couldn't be further apart.

I hate to use what a slimy EA would say - but the Edinburgh market just now - for both sales and rentals is 'buzzing'.

I feel ill saying that I may need to go out and buy some shiny pointy shoes and get a hair transplant so I can design the ubiquitous spiky EA hairdo.

Almost everything is back to offers over now in Edinburgh. Many places even have closing dates. My pals burd just put her wee flat up for sale in a rough as ****** part of town that he calls Stenhoustan due to the sheer number of migrants/refugees whatever around the place.

It sold in 4 days for 12.5k more than asking.

My walk to work takes 20 mins. I always keep an eye on for sale signs, have done for years now. Cant help myself.

Today every single for sale sign had a SOLD sticker on it. Every single one. Not a single exception.

Have a look at the #1 portal for house sales in Edinburgh - the ESPC. Do a search but tick the 'under offer' option. The sheer number is huge.

Nope - Edinburgh seems to be very much about a year behind London when it comes to this second bubbly peak since 2008. It was about a year later when going in the other direction as well so no real surprise there.

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I do welcome these statistics but I don't believe Edinburgh prices are 15.6% down! Asking prices are up...

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=edinburgh&lastyear=1

Time on market down...

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=edinburgh&lastyear=1

Aberdeen makes sense though when you look at the same data. And they're crashing big style unlike Edinburgh.

Edited by Paul77

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Let me get this right...Scottish house prices are collapsing ?

In Aberdeen - yes. Absolutely. Like a junkie after injecting skag into his bellend.

In Edinburgh - no.

Everywhere else - I don't have a clue.

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Well I am afraid to say this report just shows how stats can tell a completely different story to reality.

Aberdeen and Edinburgh numbers are very close - but in reality whats actually happening couldn't be further apart.

I hate to use what a slimy EA would say - but the Edinburgh market just now - for both sales and rentals is 'buzzing'.

I feel ill saying that I may need to go out and buy some shiny pointy shoes and get a hair transplant so I can design the ubiquitous spiky EA hairdo.

Almost everything is back to offers over now in Edinburgh. Many places even have closing dates. My pals burd just put her wee flat up for sale in a rough as ****** part of town that he calls Stenhoustan due to the sheer number of migrants/refugees whatever around the place.

It sold in 4 days for 12.5k more than asking.

My walk to work takes 20 mins. I always keep an eye on for sale signs, have done for years now. Cant help myself.

Today every single for sale sign had a SOLD sticker on it. Every single one. Not a single exception.

Have a look at the #1 portal for house sales in Edinburgh - the ESPC. Do a search but tick the 'under offer' option. The sheer number is huge.

Nope - Edinburgh seems to be very much about a year behind London when it comes to this second bubbly peak since 2008. It was about a year later when going in the other direction as well so no real surprise there.

Not being funny, but are you saying your anecdotes trump the Registers of Scotland report?

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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In Aberdeen - yes. Absolutely. Like a junkie after injecting skag into his bellend.

In Edinburgh - no.

Everywhere else - I don't have a clue.

According to the stats/.figures.....Yes ?

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Not being funny, but are you saying your anecdotes trump the Registers of Scotland report?

Anecdotes are always the most useful tool for judging your life decisions on.

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Thoughts on whether this will spook the market?

Will those that are currently doing bidding wars in Edinburgh start to think twice when they see the headlines "15% down"?

I dont think it will take much to spook the market.

Do these reports usually show wild fluctuations ?

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Absolutely it should spook the market and chip away at people's ridiculous 'suspension of disbelief' about property values -- but it all depends on how much oxygen the MSM in England are prepared to give to this story. If their political agenda is anti-Tory and Brexit, they'll hold it up and give it lots of airtime -- if they're pro-Tory and for Remain In, they'll bury it or ignore it.

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Not being funny, but are you saying your anecdotes trump the Registers of Scotland report?

Yes. Stats can show you the opposite of reality.

In 2008 - when it was starting to crash, nothing was selling and most people were shit scared of buying - there still somehow managed to be + YOY figures appearing from various sources to tell everyone that things were just dandy. This is the opposite.

I keep a track of things on a regular basis - look at ESPC on daily basis - and also on rental places too. The place is far from crashing at 15% per year.

Have a think about it - in the depths of 2009-2012 - I don't think I ever saw an annual % drop figure in double figures. Certainly not as high as 16%. And at that time - the market was absolutely totally 100% ******ed. 2 of my family members took 18 months and over 2 years respectively to sell nice places in nice areas for seriously dropped prices.

Today - they would be selling in a few weeks.

I am not saying its totally bubbletastic. Just more like what Edinburgh was like maybe back in 2005 ish. Which yes was bubbletastic I suppose. :blink::D

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Thoughts on whether this will spook the market?

Will those that are currently doing bidding wars in Edinburgh start to think twice when they see the headlines "15% down"?

Where exactly are these headlines going to appear ? Scottish news wont be showing it. The newspapers are just as bad. HPI obsessed to the maximum.

It will probably make the corner of page 14 of the Scotsman or something.

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Not denying prices may be down, but those figures are a blip, must be a surge in BTL properties selling at the lower end of the market.

Absolutely 100% no way good family homes in East Renfrewshire are selling for 10% less than a year ago. I get a copy of home reports for 4 bed homes in Giffnock and Clakrston and keep a track of them vs sold prices, anything decent sells within a few weeks, usually for more than HR value.

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Not denying prices may be down, but those figures are a blip, must be a surge in BTL properties selling at the lower end of the market.

Absolutely 100% no way good family homes in East Renfrewshire are selling for 10% less than a year ago. I get a copy of home reports for 4 bed homes in Giffnock and Clakrston and keep a track of them vs sold prices, anything decent sells within a few weeks, usually for more than HR value.

Yep.

I was quite vocal in pointing out back in 2008> how ridiculous many of the stats were compared to the reality. I am just doing the same here when the opposite is occurring. I would be a massive hypocrite if I didn't.

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Someone is going to get into trouble for that !! Anyway as for the story itself - whilst the below is probably the usual EA exaggeration - I don't think its too far from the truth.

Michelle Grant, investment director at Grant Property, said the firm's buyers were experiencing "high levels of competition" when bidding for city centre properties.

"In Glasgow we are bidding against on average eight people for each property and in Edinburgh it can be as high as 20.

"We have also recently seen properties selling for as much as 15% over the asking price in Glasgow and as much as 30% in Edinburgh."

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Michelle Grant, investment director at Grant Property, said the firm's buyers were experiencing "high levels of competition" when bidding for city centre properties.


"In Glasgow we are bidding against on average eight people for each property and in Edinburgh it can be as high as 20.


"We have also recently seen properties selling for as much as 15% over the asking price in Glasgow and as much as 30% in Edinburgh."



Desperation: it smells like hammers.



It's absolute carnage in Scotland. If volumes are UP and selling prices are DOWN, that simply means that low volumes are no longer keeping values artificially high. Higher volumes of trade are allowing the market forces to deflate the values -- and quite right too. The same flat worth £200K at this time last year is now worth £168K today. Simple as that.



All this twisting and mangling and overstretching the truth to try to reach any other conclusion is kind of embarrassing. "Hey maybe it's because all the flat sales were, er, one-room student accommodations, yeah that's it! They were all one room studios and the kitchen cupboard doubled as a bedroom! Yeah, that's why all the prices are down, all the cheap nasty bad flats were sold!"


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Michelle Grant, investment director at Grant Property, said the firm's buyers were experiencing "high levels of competition" when bidding for city centre properties.

"In Glasgow we are bidding against on average eight people for each property and in Edinburgh it can be as high as 20.

"We have also recently seen properties selling for as much as 15% over the asking price in Glasgow and as much as 30% in Edinburgh."

Desperation: it smells like hammers.

It's absolute carnage in Scotland. If volumes are UP and selling prices are DOWN, that simply means that low volumes are no longer keeping values artificially high. Higher volumes of trade are allowing the market forces to deflate the values -- and quite right too. The same flat worth £200K at this time last year is now worth £168K today. Simple as that.

All this twisting and mangling and overstretching the truth to try to reach any other conclusion is kind of embarrassing. "Hey maybe it's because all the flat sales were, er, one-room student accommodations, yeah that's it! They were all one room studios and the kitchen cupboard doubled as a bedroom! Yeah, that's why all the prices are down, all the cheap nasty bad flats were sold!"

In Edinburgh - that's simply not true.

And trust me - I would be the last person on the planet to say that if I thought otherwise.

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