Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
eric pebble

From Horses' Mouths..... London Sales Collapsing...

Recommended Posts

I hear noises from within a very large national estate agent group that booking for surveys have dropped off a cliff, has something changed very recently or was the BTL tax year spurge hiding a general drop in the market?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've had a handful of phone calls from EAs in recent days (one of them kept bloody ringing), I took some pleasure in telling them I am not looking. "Oh you've bought somewhere new?" they ask. "No, I just think the market is about to drop". They didn't agree with me, of course... :ph34r:

phead, can you please name them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear noises from within a very large national estate agent group that booking for surveys have dropped off a cliff, has something changed very recently or was the BTL tax year spurge hiding a general drop in the market?

Foxtons Group PLC
LON: FOXT - Apr 28, 2:42 PM GMT+1
146.00
52 week low: 143
52 week high: 289.75
This is how much house prices need to come down...initially

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is London. Brilliant :) I don't think it's true further out as the ripple spreads outwards. I'm in Wilts and although theres not a lot on the market I think EAs are ticking over but chains fall apart so they're having to work harder to keep it all together.

Part-time EA friend who works every Saturday for small chain of London EAs said that last Saturday, yet again, for the fourth week running, NO visitors all day, NO email queries, the phone rang NOT ONCE all day, and she had NO phone calls to make. Not for lettings, not for sales. Nothing. She's been sitting static for six hours every Saturday all month.

Last Saturday I sat in on a finance-juggling meeting with a friend who was meeting with a financial advisor at an EAs office in SW London. We were only in the EA's office for one hour (2pm-3pm), and in that time the EAs office was more lifeless than a tomb. Not one visitor, not one phone call received or made.

**shrug**

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear noises from within a very large national estate agent group that booking for surveys have dropped off a cliff, has something changed very recently or was the BTL tax year spurge hiding a general drop in the market?

Let's hope it's this bunch of parasites reaping what they've sown.

And before anyone starts saying we've got to feel sorry for them because,because....

From personal experience I can tell you they think nothing of charging £400 for photocopying a tenancy contract and getting you to sign it.

http://www.countrywide.co.uk/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some near by neighbours sold and the EA has flyer-ed and come knocking (the later is unusual) asking if there are any more to sell so they have no sensibly priced stock. I'm just waiting for the price to hit Land Registry It took 9 months and giving up on F_xt_ns to get a sale!

There seem localised pockets were there is property advertised for sale (I suspect some BTL being put up for sale) put large areas where there is virtually nothing for sale.

I haven't seen any non staff in the EAs on Saturday for while and the only one looking in the window was me for entertainment /education...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting lots of calls recently for agents both wanting to sell my flat and bizarrely asking me if i am still looking for a house...buy not actually having anything to sell.

Seriously cannot see a house I like under 500- 600k and increasingly these are listed with smaller agents who I presume are telling them the price is realistic.

Even if prices are up or going down this is not good for agents as no liquidity.

There is not much to rent either which means any str thoughts are out the window.

Edited by Fromage Frais

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm guessing that lack of stock is why EAs 'round my area are holding "Open House" viewings where you don't have to book beforehand. This was a very rare phemomenon over the past year or so.

I presume it's a way of getting contact numbers from people who might be persuaded to put thier houses on the market.

It' certainly not a very effective way of selling houses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to play devils advocate here, if property prices remain flat rather than rising, and you're able to have somebody else paying a repayment mortgage (never io) then btl hasn't worked out badly as an investment even though those prices have stayed flat for 10 years. It's a standard btl argument, but it does hold water.

Im not saying that btl is morally right, but as an investment having a half paid off mortgage on a place that you've only put the deposit and upkeep into looks ok, assuming you can continue to have someone cover the mortgage which is now down at under 50% ltv.

If you've used that rent to keep leveraging up, then more fool you... And I won't be shading a tear when your former property 'empire' is up for sale to genuine OOs, and you're bankrupt.

You live by leverage, you die by leverage. Thems the breaks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to play devils advocate here, if property prices remain flat rather than rising, and you're able to have somebody else paying a repayment mortgage (never io) then btl hasn't worked out badly as an investment even though those prices have stayed flat for 10 years. It's a standard btl argument, but it does hold water.

Im not saying that btl is morally right, but as an investment having a half paid off mortgage on a place that you've only put the deposit and upkeep into looks ok, assuming you can continue to have someone cover the mortgage which is now down at under 50% ltv.

If you've used that rent to keep leveraging up, then more fool you... And I won't be shading a tear when your former property 'empire' is up for sale to genuine OOs, and you're bankrupt.

You live by leverage, you die by leverage. Thems the breaks

There's nothing 'standard' about BTL on a repayment basis. It's the antithesis of the something for nothing debt junkie IO culture that the povertylater idiots are standard bearers for. See another thread for a plum with 17 homes that is unable to find 13k to guarantee their solvency. Fookin idiots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this thread is almost a perfect troll draw.

it's perfect as the title has obviously hit a nerve. as it has obviously hit a nerve as it has merit.

bought in London in the last two years?, probably have just missed the last boat. your chance to flog to the greater fool has passed. and your bad bets won't come good for another 15-20 years (if you can stay solvent)

it's now finally time to bend over and take what's coming to you.

London sales are dead. The bubble has finally burst. next few months will be carnage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to play devils advocate here, if property prices remain flat rather than rising, and you're able to have somebody else paying a repayment mortgage (never io) then btl hasn't worked out badly as an investment even though those prices have stayed flat for 10 years. It's a standard btl argument, but it does hold water.

Im not saying that btl is morally right, but as an investment having a half paid off mortgage on a place that you've only put the deposit and upkeep into looks ok, assuming you can continue to have someone cover the mortgage which is now down at under 50% ltv.

Troll!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do hope the only phone calls are crying vendors reporting broken chains.

It looks like that in the places I follow.

Big burst of For Sales end of 2015.

Moving quickly to Sold

Followed by ....... not much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Same's going on in New York and lots of other previously insidiously expensive cities, it won't matter to the oligarchs and multimillionaires or those who bought their terraced place for pennies in the 80's, but those who bought into the never ending boom 'before it's too late' are going to feel the burn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to play devils advocate here, if property prices remain flat rather than rising, and you're able to have somebody else paying a repayment mortgage (never io) then btl hasn't worked out badly as an investment even though those prices have stayed flat for 10 years. It's a standard btl argument, but it does hold water.

Im not saying that btl is morally right, but as an investment having a half paid off mortgage on a place that you've only put the deposit and upkeep into looks ok, assuming you can continue to have someone cover the mortgage which is now down at under 50% ltv.

If you've used that rent to keep leveraging up, then more fool you... And I won't be shading a tear when your former property 'empire' is up for sale to genuine OOs, and you're bankrupt.

You live by leverage, you die by leverage. Thems the breaks

Right for the wrong reasons. Bailed out by spectacular low interest rates and government subsidies. So the general case of the BTL argument does not hold therefore. Do you understand what a'general case' is? Have you ever heard of behavioural investing? They say one of the most dangerous mistakes in investing is being right for the wrong reasons. I'll leave your braincells to generate some smoke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1st post after lurking on here for perhaps a year....and, i’d agree wholeheartedly. It’s gonna be an epic mess.

An excellent start if you don't mind me saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to play devils advocate here, if property prices remain flat rather than rising, and you're able to have somebody else paying a repayment mortgage (never io) then btl hasn't worked out badly as an investment even though those prices have stayed flat for 10 years. It's a standard btl argument, but it does hold water.

Im not saying that btl is morally right, but as an investment having a half paid off mortgage on a place that you've only put the deposit and upkeep into looks ok, assuming you can continue to have someone cover the mortgage which is now down at under 50% ltv.

If you've used that rent to keep leveraging up, then more fool you... And I won't be shading a tear when your former property 'empire' is up for sale to genuine OOs, and you're bankrupt.

You live by leverage, you die by leverage. Thems the breaks

Not sure if its troll or someone who cannot do somes.

Whats missing from your post is numbers - rents, mortgages + IRs.

All of the BTL I know are running with a very thin sliver of cash. Some do no manage even this i.e. they are topping up the mortgage with money.

And this is with IO mortgages, with very low deposit (sub-10%), with very low IRs.

If these were changed to repayment - and I think regualted banks should not be allowed (for risk rather than moral reasons) - then the would be paying 600/month to top up the rent.

Chuck in the ability not to discount rent (which is righ - its an investment not a business), Basel 3 extra interest costs, IR going up.

Leveraged LL is not a good business. Its a one way route to bankruptcy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1st post after lurking on here for perhaps a year....and, i’d agree wholeheartedly. It’s gonna be an epic mess.

It is already as an epic mess. Whatever happens prices rise,fall or crash a lot of people are going to suffer a lot. Prices in London are crazy. I bought a flat in 2001 for £96 k (which considering it is a horrible area) is a lot. Now other flats are selling for £250K and it is still a horrible area.

Disclaimer - I sold years ago and so am not crowing.

Edited by iamnumerate

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is already as an epic mess. Whatever happens prices rise,fall or crash a lot of people are going to suffer a lot. Prices in London are crazy. I bought a flat in 2001 for £96 k (which considering it is a horrible area) is a lot. Now other flats are selling for £250K and it is still a horrible area.

Disclaimer - I sold years ago and so am not crowing.

Well I think we’re on the edge of something historic so yep....an even bigger epic mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right for the wrong reasons. Bailed out by spectacular low interest rates and government subsidies. So the general case of the BTL argument does not hold therefore. Do you understand what a'general case' is? Have you ever heard of behavioural investing? They say one of the most dangerous mistakes in investing is being right for the wrong reasons. I'll leave your braincells to generate some smoke.

Yep. And as for those BTL'ers looking to cash in their so-called 'not bad investment'? Georgie Boy Osborne can't bloody WAIT to tear his massive bloody 28% chunk out of all the value that was ever gained on those properties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For your information... although born in London and lived there all my childhood and working life I would have no reason or want to move back to live again.......and would not buy a place there now to rent out as any kind investment...those halcyon days have gone. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 220 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.