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Beeb:

UK house price inflation is set for a slowdown over the coming months, a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) suggests.

It said the forthcoming referendum on European Union membership and elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would cool the housing market.

Rics said the Stamp Duty increases for landlords that came in on 1 April were another factor.

The Halifax has also said that the EU vote is likely to slow the market.

"Elections inevitably bring with them periods of uncertainty in the market, and our figures would suggest that next May's devolved elections are no exception," said Simon Rubinsohn, Rics chief economist.

"Likewise, the EU referendum, is likely to be an influencer in terms of the damper outlook for London in particular."

'Imbalance'

The survey showed that most surveyors in London expect prices to fall over the next three months.

The number of surveyors expecting a price fall outweighed those expecting a rise by 38%.

However in other parts of the country, surveyors were much more optimistic.

In north west England and in Northern Ireland most survey respondents expect prices to rise significantly over the spring and early summer.

And in the longer term, Rics expects house prices to rise by more than 4% a year in England and Wales - whatever the results of the EU referendum and the elections.

"The imbalance between demand and supply will still exert a strong influence on the market, with house prices expected to rise by close to 25 per cent over the next five years," said Mr Rubinsohn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36035154

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Any sign of a 'softening' will be no doubt be greeted by Carney as a sign to drop rates further.

Let's see how the next few months figures pan out. Can't see one report moving GBP.

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It's pretty obvious that a massive slowing occurred as soon the tax deadline was no longer doable around the middle of March, activity fell off a cliff. But this will only reinforce the MPC's zirp forever policy. i reckon the 10% HPI we have just experienced in the last year has been the main reason the UK has experienced about the best GDP relative to other advanced countries, I guess that is about to change.

If activity can fall like this at the very best time of year, spring, God only knows what the Market will be doing during the summer from July onwards when it always falls off a cliff. There may , of course , be a Brexit relief rally by then; on the basis we have voted to stay in.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Has anyone adequately explained this supposed "rally" in house prices if we vote for Brexit? I don't understand it.

I can see it both ways.

We vote for Brexit and the Market falls on interest rate rises to protect a pound in total meltdown.

We vote for Brext and there is a rush to property as a solid alternative to a pound in meltdown and hyper-inflation.

(btw I think a vote to stay is most likely to give a housing market relief rally than vice versa)

Edited by crashmonitor

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I can see it both ways.

We vote for Brexit and the Market falls on interest rate rises to protect a pound in total meltdown.

We vote for Brext and there is a rush to property as a solid alternative to a pound in meltdown and hyper-inflation.

(btw I think a vote to stay is most likely to give a housing market relief rally than vice versa)

The BoE will not raise rates and just see through what they will call a temporary rise in inflation due to a Brexit out vote. It might even just be used as an excuse for more QE to "help" the economy.

If we did vote out it might persuade some expats to come back here and create demand for property. Some thinking of leaving may just decide to stay and not sell or if renting buy here instead.

If we voted to stay in, then more houses might come on the market because more people might decide to leave.

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If activity can fall like this at the very best time of year, spring, God only knows what the Market will be doing during the summer from July onwards when it always falls off a cliff. There may , of course , be a Brexit relief rally by then; on the basis we have voted to stay in.

RICS/CML/NW/H***** tread a fine between talking up the market (and prompting further vigilant "activity" from the BoE), and the alien truth. You will never get the truth from VI's.

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The BoE will not raise rates and just see through what they will call a temporary rise in inflation due to a Brexit out vote. It might even just be used as an excuse for more QE to "help" the economy.

If we did vote out it might persuade some expats to come back here and create demand for property. Some thinking of leaving may just decide to stay and not sell or if renting buy here instead.

If we voted to stay in, then more houses might come on the market because more people might decide to leave.

Doubt many expats could afford to live here. Seems to be a common reason to have left in the first place. Missing out on 5-10 years of hpi means they'd find it tough to reenter the market.

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Doubt many expats could afford to live here. Seems to be a common reason to have left in the first place. Missing out on 5-10 years of hpi means they'd find it tough to reenter the market.

Plus, who are they going to sell their houses to?

Spain's still on its uppers. Italy's a basket case. In France, Brits have tended to buy houses that French people don't want to live in, i.e. old and/or rural properties.

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Plus, who are they going to sell their houses to?

Well...there's the thing.

Who are the people buying in London, paying 10 times UK salary's, going to sell their houses to....NO ONE.

Who are the people buying in the shires, paying double what a local can afford, sell their houses to....NO ONE

They've keep this baby going longer than any of us can believe but at some point, people will need to sell.

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I was reading the surveyor comments in the survey, and most of them were still talking about the rush to beat the SDLT deadline. The stampede had evidently not yet ended at the time - I guess the surveys are sent mid month, and so we'll have to wait till next months survey before we get a clear picture of the aftermath.

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Plus, who are they going to sell their houses to?

Spain's still on its uppers. Italy's a basket case. In France, Brits have tended to buy houses that French people don't want to live in, i.e. old and/or rural properties.

Spain's a bvasketcase too.

France,'s rural areas depopulated over the last 40 years. To be replaced by UK teachers.

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I was reading the surveyor comments in the survey, and most of them were still talking about the rush to beat the SDLT deadline. The stampede had evidently not yet ended at the time - I guess the surveys are sent mid month, and so we'll have to wait till next months survey before we get a clear picture of the aftermath.

I reckon there was an uptick but nowhere near as mad rush.

Most Sokds have gone back to For Sale.

There's just not the finance.

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I reckon there was an uptick but nowhere near as mad rush.

Most Sokds have gone back to For Sale.

There's just not the finance.

I agree that a large proportion will have fallen through - who manages to complete within a month, let alone 2 weeks, and at a time when conveyancers are needing to work on weekends to deal with demand?

But I don't think you can credibly claim there was no mad rush at this point. I've read the comments of the last six surveys and there was a definite rush, mostly described along the lines of "very strong demand due to Stamp Duty hike".

Can't recall the source, but I read on here a couple of days ago that BTL constituted 50% of purchases against a usual 20%.

If that's not a mad rush then I don't know what is.

If the April survey does not report a large fall in demand, I will be very surprised.

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I agree that a large proportion will have fallen through - who manages to complete within a month, let alone 2 weeks, and at a time when conveyancers are needing to work on weekends to deal with demand?

But I don't think you can credibly claim there was no mad rush at this point. I've read the comments of the last six surveys and there was a definite rush, mostly described along the lines of "very strong demand due to Stamp Duty hike".

Can't recall the source, but I read on here a couple of days ago that BTL constituted 50% of purchases against a usual 20%.

If that's not a mad rush then I don't know what is.

If the April survey does not report a large fall in demand, I will be very surprised.

Oh there was a big rise in demand.

There was just not in the way of finance to support it.

If you buying a 2nd home incash ID have blown the EA to get it in before end of tax year - and I drtink beer in a glass with a handle.

But there are very few cases like this. Most people need finance.

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I've see some downward movement in asking prices (from overpriced to slightly less overpriced) on rightmove over the past 2 weeks. A fair few of the houses were listed in Feb/March time and I guess were priced to try and hook the desperate and gullible wannabe LLs.

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Anecdotal from a week ago, chatting to an EA (mate of a mate) nice bloke who said it went batshit mental in the run up to end of march with all the BTLers rushing to complete, which wasn't news. What he also said though was that he was now locked into negotiations in April around a load of sales which failed to complete by deadline. Said it was a nightmare with people refusing to pay additional 3%, demanding a reduction in the vendor price and amusingly the EA fees.

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Anecdotal from a week ago, chatting to an EA (mate of a mate) nice bloke who said it went batshit mental in the run up to end of march with all the BTLers rushing to complete, which wasn't news. What he also said though was that he was now locked into negotiations in April around a load of sales which failed to complete by deadline. Said it was a nightmare with people refusing to pay additional 3%, demanding a reduction in the vendor price and amusingly the EA fees.

That sounds very plausible, because despite having spotted a fair few price reductions in the past fortnight I've seen very little (in property bee) of houses going back onto the market after have been SSTC.

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RICS/CML/NW/H***** tread a fine between talking up the market (and prompting further vigilant "activity" from the BoE), and the alien truth. You will never get the truth from VI's.

These indices can only be believed if they say the market is falling. This is a perfectly logical position. They have a vested interest in saying the market is rising, so they're likely to be lying, but if they say it's falling they're telling the truth.

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These indices can only be believed if they say the market is falling. This is a perfectly logical position. They have a vested interest in saying the market is rising, so they're likely to be lying, but if they say it's falling they're telling the truth.

:lol::lol::lol:

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Ive posted numerous times of my experience as a seller and buyer leading up to the deadline.

One by one, EVERY house that i looked at, that subsequently sold to someone prepared to pay more than i, has fallen through and is back on the market.

SP8

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