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Ripples From The Epicentre

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I'm seeing lots of new stock appearing in bn13... Which is an hour on the train from London. I honestly think major areas for falls (london, Aberdeen, etc) will send shockwaves to surrounding areas first then gradually spread to the rest of the country.

People saying no supply or no falls in their neck of the woods just need to watch the nearest epicentre (BTL enclave for instance) to see the fuse lit.

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I'm seeing lots of new stock appearing in bn13... Which is an hour on the train from London. I honestly think major areas for falls (london, Aberdeen, etc) will send shockwaves to surrounding areas first then gradually spread to the rest of the country.

People saying no supply or no falls in their neck of the woods just need to watch the nearest epicentre (BTL enclave for instance) to see the fuse lit.

Something has definitely occurred in Northants....lotsw of price drops lots of sales fallign through.

West mids have 50% of falls/fails for the first 2 pages of listings today.

Over the last 6 months all i've seen is SOLD SOLD SOLD LIES LIES LIES

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Hi Count, where are you getting your information from? Rightmove/propertyBee or some other method?

Property bee is quite handy but I find the table on the left doesn't update or show a property unless I click and view the add page- which when scanning lots of properties gets tiresome. Wish it would populate a table of updated data based on a postcode/area search alone!

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Hi Count, where are you getting your information from? Rightmove/propertyBee or some other method?

Property bee is quite handy but I find the table on the left doesn't update or show a property unless I click and view the add page- which when scanning lots of properties gets tiresome. Wish it would populate a table of updated data based on a postcode/area search alone!

Yeah, it's from rightmove property bee.

Someone had a tool last year that did an automatic count if you browsed the pages, it's be on the Are the shires crashing thread somewhere.

IIRC the person who did it has been banned, no idea why.

There we significant drops last year, esp around wiltshire/surrey so this new mega bubble is somewhat surprising.

Maybe the HTB40% boosted the insanity again

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I think you can get a pretty good idea of the market just from general observation without anything too scientific. Between January -March the SSTC ratio was up at a record 50% on rightmove for Nottingham. Those SSTCs have by and large disappeared now and the ratio has probably fallen to about 25%. the main problem for this translating into a crash is stock levels.....got to be at an all time low. so very bad for estate agents but not necessarily going to cause price falls.

At the time I sold in february 8 out of ten detached bungalows were SSTC in the village where I sold just outside Nottingahm that is now nought out of seven.

This crash in activity was telegraphed by RICs back in March and the jury is still out as to whether this will translate into anything sustained. Of course RICs predicted a pause followed by another 25% to 2020.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Given that we are anticipating a global economic slowdown I would want to know where the money is to come from to push the forecasted HPI. Low wage growth, low inflation, and falling economic output suggests that prices are not going to go up without more money being added to the system from elsewhere. Maybe the government will shove even more money in; if so, how will the deficit be reduced and how long will the public continue to accept that their children can no longer afford to move out from the family home?

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A lot less than a normal April but a very low SSTC ratio at a time when things should be hot. The spring bounce was very much brought forward by the tax deadline to a peak in February, suspect a bit of lag on that Halifax 2.6% from the previous month. May be a delay on mortgage approval.

Will be amazed if we don't get a bit of back tracking on the HPI indicies once the first reports come in....probably rightmove next week.

Edited by crashmonitor

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SP8. Ive mentioned before that all 3 of the houses i looked at prior to deadline day, having sold, are all back on the market.

Others are being reduced.

Post election, signs were there that prices were defo on the wane. Then George opened his gob in November and all hell broke loose.

Gravity is winning again.

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Something has definitely occurred in Northants....lotsw of price drops lots of sales fallign through.

Just as an aside, I went to the Delapre (public) golf course a few days ago in Northampton. Looks like they're really struggling. They've closed one 9 hole course, and it just looked dead when I was there. I know it's horribly anecdotal, but is golf just becoming deeply unpopular these days, or has nobody got the money for such a leisure pursuit? Northampton is one WEIRD town. Massive house prices, massive eastern euro population, crappy wages, crappy infrastructure, broke council, and a public golf course that looks like it could go bust at any moment. Hey ho, at least for home owners, they can feel good about HPI.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Just as an aside, I went to the Delapre (public) golf course a few days ago in Northampton. Looks like they're really struggling. They've closed one 9 hole course, and it just looked dead when I was there. I

Bulgarians, Romanians and Somalians don't play golf.

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Just as an aside, I went to the Delapre (public) golf course a few days ago in Northampton. Looks like they're really struggling. They've closed one 9 hole course, and it just looked dead when I was there. I know it's horribly anecdotal, but is golf just becoming deeply unpopular these days, or has nobody got the money for such a leisure pursuit? Northampton is one WEIRD town. Massive house prices, massive eastern euro population, crappy wages, crappy infrastructure, broke council, and a public golf course that looks like it could go bust at any moment. Hey ho, at least for home owners, they can feel good about HPI.

P.S. I used to play at Delapre and it was a good public course. Sorry to hear it might have hit hard times.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Bulgarians, Romanians and Somalians don't play golf.

Ah yes.....and nor do Polish, Estonians, Latvians or Lithuanians. I think Northampton CC need to research the histories of these countries and their pasttimes.

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P.S. I used to play at Delapre and it was a good public course. Sorry to hear it might have hit hard times.

Funny thing is - you go there and the carpark is full. It looks really busy. Then you realise they're renting the carpark out to Brackmills workers.

Anyway, sorry for the derail people....

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Meanwhile Northampton is the top migrant destination in the E Midlands by number, Boston by percentage.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/04_03/map_800x1183.jpg

Crazy really currently taking far more than Leicester and Nottingham put together. No wonder house prices are up...plenty of BTL fodder.....this is a dream come true for the political class with all their houses, one assumes the Blair family foundation will take note of this trend.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Meanwhile Northampton is the top migrant destination in the E Midlands by number, Boston by percentage.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/04_03/map_800x1183.jpg

Crazy really currently taking far more than Leicester and Nottingham put together. No wonder house prices are up...plenty of BTL fodder.....this is a dream come true for the political class with all their houses, one assumes the Blair family foundation will take note of this trend.

Wow. Northampton is refugee central! Totally corroborates what you've been saying about local house prices and the East Midlands/Cambridgeshire regions generally.

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Remind me - how does that 'immigration doesn't effect house prices' argument go again?

Can`t remember, but if migrants from EE are working in factories or pulling up spring onions or doing temp work they are unlikely to be buying at top dollar and there will be a ceiling on the rent they can pay, so now that PTB have decided to tax BTL it becomes a trap, you can`t sell out, you can`t put the rent up, and you have to bend over for George?

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TheCountOfNowhere, on 12 Apr 2016 - 10:40 AM, said:snapback.png

Bulgarians, Romanians and Somalians don't play golf.

Ah yes.....and nor do Polish, Estonians, Latvians or Lithuanians. I think Northampton CC need to research the histories of these countries and their pasttimes.

Charlie don't surf golf

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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Another golf anecdote, around 2008-2009 I was working with a guy who was mad keen on golf (to the extent that he had to give a full report on the weekends round every Monday)

Anyway, he was in the second best golf club on the area, with the top golf club being very exclusive. But he was commenting at this time how drastically the top golf club was dropping it's entry requirements. He was approached to join the best club, but did was all his friends were at the second best place.

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Meanwhile Northampton is the top migrant destination in the E Midlands by number, Boston by percentage.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/04_03/map_800x1183.jpg

Crazy really currently taking far more than Leicester and Nottingham put together. No wonder house prices are up...plenty of BTL fodder.....this is a dream come true for the political class with all their houses, one assumes the Blair family foundation will take note of this trend.

Northampton is the nightmare future of the UK. Utterly sclerotic due to opposing forces in all kinds of directions. Crowded with cheap labour, high house prices, BTL-central, crap wages, broke council, creaking infrastructure, blah blah blah. Just watched the Big Short and can only see the film's characters reaching a similar non-plussed reaction about Northampton as they did about the American housing market.

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Remind me - how does that 'immigration doesn't effect house prices' argument go again?

Have a look at the graph on the front page of HPC, the worst period of HPI was before places like Poland etc. joined the EU.

homepage.png

What is the population growth (10-20% perhaps), how does that compare with HPI (100+%)?

Remind me - is correlation the same thing as causation.

Ah never mind, “You cannot reason people out of a position that they did not reason themselves into.” Ben Goldacre, Bad Science

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I was referring specifically to the Northampton question where immigration has been higher than similar areas and so, it would seem, has HPI. What other explanation would you offer? Btw this is not meant to be an anti immigration question.

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