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Amiinsane

So What Happens Now?

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We've seen the idiot stampede to beat the SDLT deadline, what are you expecting to happen in the next few months? No initial price drops but a big reduction in sales volumes?

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I'm expecting the next three months until the PRA consultation finishes to be absolutely dead in terms of volume. During this time there'll be a flood of rental supply that depresses rents. Not sure on prices during this time, but they'll slowly start to trickle down and accelerate after that.

I wouldn't be surprised if come September or October there'll be a short stock market correction that causes banks to start rationalising their loan books and start calling in the really dodgy BTL loans in anticipation of changes from the PRA.

All total speculation, obviously!

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We've seen the idiot stampede to beat the SDLT deadline, what are you expecting to happen in the next few months? No initial price drops but a big reduction in sales volumes?

Auction results in late March are suggesting BTL demand is dwindling ,they have been the foundations of the market for the best part of a decade,the question is who`s going to prop up the market now ? my guess is it`s going to be a slow downward grind starting from the bottom and very very slowly working it`s way up through the market at best

Another IMO significant factor that should not be ignored is the fact that a couple both working full time minimum wage jobs 3-4 years from now (first BTL tax bills land 2018-19 ?) will have a combined income approaching £38k ...BTL bailouters ?

Is it just a coincidence that one group have to sell and all of a sudden there another group that will be able to buy ...i`m just guessing here

Edit:: to add when do HTB ISA`s matuer..with the £3k taxpayer gift ? would not be around the same time line would it ?

Edited by long time lurking

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Hopefully more property made available for owner occupiers.....no direct drop in prices immediately, but only a matter of time...a stabilsation will see that the playing field becomes more stable when other lending policies become more fairer.

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Less volume, stagnant prices in many areas, some divestment out of London into other areas bringing prices up as part of the bigger picture. I still think it has steam left unfortunately, despite 3% SDLT - although in some areas that might kill volume for a few months.

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I'm not a fan of the government props analysis, myself. Maybe they are taking props away to see what happens when you do.

Could well be and i hope it to be the case ,we are all guessing, i just like to leave the believing to the religious sky fairy believers

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Could well be and i hope it to be the case ,we are all guessing, i just like to leave the believing to the religious sky fairy believers

When it gets right down to it, everything everybody does rests on substrates of conviction, not certain knowledge. I'm a signed up member of the Church of the Latter Day Dude and that is the extent of my present interest in religious matters and matters of faith, but belief is everywhere.

The prop believers believe that there is considered but secret coordination between the monetary authority, the fiscal authority and the private banks. They believe they've got the measure of that intent of those coordinated actors and they believe, and this is the bit where I get off the train for certain, that these economic actors know what they are doing and can achieve what they want to achieve.

In this context I am presently favouring not belief but inference to best explanation.

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When it gets right down to it, everything everybody does rests on substrates of conviction, not certain knowledge. I'm a signed up member of the Church of the Latter Day Dude and that is the extent of my present interest in religious matters and matters of faith, but belief is everywhere.

The prop believers believe that there is considered but secret coordination between the monetary authority, the fiscal authority and the private banks. They believe they've got the measure of that intent of those coordinated actors and they believe, and this is the bit where I get off the train for certain, that these economic actors know what they are doing and can achieve what they want to achieve.

In this context I am presently favouring not belief but inference to best explanation.

It was all going swimmingly until 2013 ,then HTB what happened next is history, one man on hear called the end of the steady downward slide that had been in progress since the financial crisis, the most beareaish of the bears KB, he was right, i thought and many others thought HTB was a seen to be doing something move i/we were wrong

I think the direction is down but i`m guessing it will not be a falling off a cliff moment ( unless there's another "event" then all bets are off) it will be a trundle down a shallow incline until there's enough resistances to halt the momentum,i`m guessing that resistance will come from various government policies-- government enforced wage increases and the like

Your choice of religion looks far more appealing than most but i think i will stick to atheism

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I live in a bullet proof market town in NE Herts. 8 price reductions out of 25 listings. Unheard of.

Allsop resi auction 70% sales rate, which excludes those assets withdrawn, but includes sold priors/afters. 31 March.

Its started I reckon

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The 3% tax thing has bought forward some buying. After that it will be relatively quiet.

Beyond that its less certain, my best guess is that buy to let will continue to buy because it is ignorant by its very nature. It will take until the other changes start to be felt for a significant enough proportion of BTL to make a difference to start selling.

So I think quiet for a year and then some fantasy asking prices for some buy to let. Some of them will sell to other BTL people who still haven't worked it out, and some will just sit on the market.

The changes are phased in, BTL people are ignorant, so I think we're at a plateau in prices on low volume for at least a year followed by the start of declines at the lower end of the market where BTL is most prevalent. 2 bed new builds first is my guess.

Beyond that Ive no idea, it would be nice for the falls to get some momentum but some government tinkering might come along if they lose their nerve.

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In most parts of the UK it does make sense when the rent covers the mortgage and prices are rising by 10% per year and in many areas the house earns more every year than its owner!

Fair enough.....but if they are renting it out where are they living?.....with parents or friends? renting themselves? or renting from a lender when could if played their cards right be completely debt free with more cash and better choices.....

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When it comes to Wales (probably the same for most of the north of England to )

A 10% fall from today's prices will result in the bottom end of the market being well within the reach of anyone with a full time job and the required deposit in a few years time

Median salary for Wales last year was £19k in four years time that will be equal to national minimum wage

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Brexit or fear of it will lead to rapid inflation of everyday food and essentials as the pound crashes. The BOE will be forced into raising interest rates sooner and higher than expected. BTL owners will be facing mortgage repayments which are higher than achievable rents for the first time. That is when the fun starts. I don't think this situation is as far away as some people think.

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Brexit or fear of it will lead to rapid inflation of everyday food and essentials as the pound crashes. The BOE will be forced into raising interest rates sooner and higher than expected. BTL owners will be facing mortgage repayments which are higher than achievable rents for the first time. That is when the fun starts. I don't think this situation is as far away as some people think.

Anyone looking to rent now should certainly try to rent a property bought outright with old money as these landlords will be far less likely to raise the rent until they see a long-term trend.

I am sure that most IO BTLers knee-jerk response to cover increased costs will be to raise the rent and, while they will find this is not a solution and will be met with voids, it will cause a lot of hiatus for their unfortunate current tenant(s).

Edited by LiveinHope

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Anyone looking to rent now should certainly try to rent a property bought outright with old money as these landlords will be far less likely to raise the rent until they see a long-term trend.

I am sure that most IO BTLers knee-jerk response to cover increased costs will be to raise the rent and, while they will find this is not a solution and will be met with voids, it will cause a lot of hiatus for their unfortunate current tenant(s).

Not bad advice that....do a status check on landlord before risking your rent.

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