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200p

House Price Bull Bear Indication, Flashing A Potential Buy Signal

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Can this signal be wrong this time? I created this in 2012, and we are approaching a decisive breakout, with this simple mechanical system. I believe the EU referendum will make HPI clear that £200K area decisively. In or Out?

houseprice%2Btrader.PNG

^Bear Bull Indicator

House%2Bprices.png

^Latest chart

Edited by 200p

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Yeah, they keep changing the rules which changes the balance of the equation, htb low rates, MMR. Then BTL stamp duty, phasing out tax relief. Public spending cuts etc

Basically the government are running around the pitch with a wobbling set of goal posts made out of rubber.

It will not end well and you cannot predict the outcome by looking at what has happened in the past.

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Can this signal be wrong this time? I created this in 2012, and we are approaching a decisive breakout, with this simple mechanical system. I believe the EU referendum will make HPI clear that £200K area decisively. In or Out?

^Latest chart

A problem with technical analysis summarised in one post. Or you could be right. Maybe tomorrow they'll just give everyone and his dog lots of free money to buy a house and no interest to pay forever. That's the way things are going...

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Do it then and let us know how you get on.

Buy Now. Buy Anything.

Fook it; Buy Everything.

Buy Everything. Then just rent it all the hell out. BOOM!

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Definition of troll: (n) (pejorative) one who thinks house prices are going to rise

More like one who thinks that house prices are going to fall and posts the opposite to bolster confidence.

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OP you would be better off using your "sell" signal, 2 yr nominal low, as a "buy" signal.

But a much simpler approach, assuming one wants to buy a home and can get a mortgage/has cash, is to simply wait for a recession and unemployment volatility spike.

Hence 2009/10 was the optimum period exactly as it was it prior recessions

It really is that simple

Unfortunately if you made that point in 2009/10 you would ne labelled a troll, estate agent, spawn of the devil, socialist etc etc by the very people who are always wrong about everything

Edited by R K

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Thanks for the replies.... everyone, no system's perfect and it is tempting to tweak systems to fit the data. The trick is to be unemotional and reduce your risk to approaching 0 - there are still false signals, which is why I tend to pay attention to major round numbers to act like stop loss bases. I don't have liquid funds to go out and buy a average house in the UK with cash and make that trade work out. A similar system "could" be used to trade anything else however. Do your own research of course. I am not a property investor and don't ever plan to buy investment property, and have scrimped and saved for over 7 years to put down a deposit to buy a house, and I drive a 10 year old car.

If house prices continue to go up I just have to shrug my shoulders and say, well that's that. If people want to play that game, (and borrow a lot of money) they can do so.

The UK house builder index chart is this:

1.png

Constituents of the NMX3720 http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/constituents-indices.html?index=NMX&industrySector=3720&page=1

Perhaps when shares magazines start producing Landlord supportive front cover stories it's time to step aside and wait a bit for market confirmation of direction.

160321-1008.jpg

Edited by 200p

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