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No End To Boom - Nationwide Up 0.8% In March

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Wouldn't have thought the BTL deadline would be making that much of an impact, but of course it probably does higher up the chain.....one boomer buying BTL releases cash for a chain of may be six house purchases. It is slowing a bit now, but it might be an Easter thing.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Surely its 3-6 months before it starts to even slow down?

The market is the proverbial super tanker that can't change direction on a sixpence. We had some ridiculous forecasts of an imminent crash at the New Year, the market doesn't work like that. And I say that now as a renter.

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London's First Time Buyer Price/Earnings ratio went above 10 in Q4 2015 and remains at 10.1 in Q1 2016.

The FTB P/E ratio for Nationwide's 'Outer Met' area (Outer London) continues to climb and has now risen above 7 for the first time (7.1 to be exact).

Nwide_London_FTB_ratio_Q1_2016.gif

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Once again, London skewing the average. Why don't they tell us the median house price?

And low sales volumes, meaning only the very best houses in each category make the index. In a normal market the pigs that fester on the market for years would sell and the market would take these into account too.

Edit. perhaps with this boomlet the pigs are selling too and I am wrong.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Well the market might be acting like a supertanker in terms of prices, but in terms of stock levels I've personally never seen such a rapid and dramatic shift... now down 50% in less than 2 years in my area.

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From the report:

RICS_SurveyorStocks.gif

It's quite amazing what high/rising interest rates can do to the stock of properties for sale. Visa versa applies.

If central banks make interest rates negative, then this chart could turn negative as there become waiting lists to buy property.

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That chart says it all and I cannot see a stop to this madness until many more houses are built but with an ever increasing population its all a bit depressing really

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That chart says it all and I cannot see a stop to this madness until many more houses are built but with an ever increasing population its all a bit depressing really

What's setting the prices is not income but family wealth, Tony Blair style; foreign wealth; inherited money, untaxed adding insult to injury; deliberate supply manipulation and unfettered immigration providing fodder for the haves and their BTL portfolios. It's a Victorian style Market pretty much set up by Blair for the Blair family foundation.

Time to introduce land vale tax on second homes and BTL and of course punitive inheritance tax.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Depressing but not unexpected - I was bracing myself to see rises in the Halifax / Nationwide reports this month due to the pre-stamp duty rise mania. And of course these rises will then show up a few months down the line in the reports that show sold prices as they filter odwn to the land registry records. But I genuinely think from this point on we're going to see, if not falls, the start of a long stagnation - at least round my way (mid Essex). That's going to take time to show up in the monthly reports (once the monthly rises stop happening, the headlines will quote the 3 month rise, once the 3 month periods stop rising they'll trumpet the annual rises - it'g going to take a while for any stagnation to register with the public) but with BTL now being cracked down on I can't see local wages being able to purchase property at these prices.

The problem is I can't see anything to force the the BTL to sell either - at least for a few years until the nex tax changes start to bite - so I think we'll see stalemate. Unless of course there's a black swan out there somewhere...

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Depressing but not unexpected - I was bracing myself to see rises in the Halifax / Nationwide reports this month due to the pre-stamp duty rise mania. And of course these rises will then show up a few months down the line in the reports that show sold prices as they filter odwn to the land registry records. But I genuinely think from this point on we're going to see, if not falls, the start of a long stagnation - at least round my way (mid Essex). That's going to take time to show up in the monthly reports (once the monthly rises stop happening, the headlines will quote the 3 month rise, once the 3 month periods stop rising they'll trumpet the annual rises - it'g going to take a while for any stagnation to register with the public) but with BTL now being cracked down on I can't see local wages being able to purchase property at these prices.

The problem is I can't see anything to force the the BTL to sell either - at least for a few years until the nex tax changes start to bite - so I think we'll see stalemate. Unless of course there's a black swan out there somewhere...

And also mentioned by me property selling up a chain, not just that BTL that starts it off from a greedy boomer moaning about his 1% on deposit at the bank. One BTL can instigate a chain of several sales for months to come. Who knows the origin of my own sale may have been an anxious boomer four or five links down the chain who started the whole thing off with a BTL purchase. the fact I am renting could be just a pause in that chain.

It's like a biological cancer that spawns a dozen more sales. because boomers can't keep it zipped.

Edited by crashmonitor

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What's setting the prices is not income but family wealth, Tony Blair style; foreign wealth; inherited money, untaxed adding insult to injury; deliberate supply manipulation and unfettered immigration providing fodder for the haves and their BTL portfolios. It's a Victorian style Market pretty much set up by Blair for the Blair family foundation.

Time to introduce land vale tax on second homes and BTL and of course punitive inheritance tax.

Agree with every word but it's never going to happen, is it? Nor without a revolution, or total collapse.

A decade on Blair's legacy remains essentially unchallenged.

distribution_of_property_ownership.png

Edited by zugzwang

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