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The Knimbies who say No

Land Registry H P I Feb 2016

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Thanks to rantnrave on the London thread for highlighting the latest release, linked here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511386/Land-Registry-February-HPI-2016.pdf

This month's edition the NW is cited as having the greatest monthly change (a rise) in prices, at an eye-catching 1.8% month on month. Here are the constituent regional authorities/metropolitan districts from the Land Registry intervactive website, with their monthly price changes:


Counties and authorities

-------------------------------
Blackburn with Darwen +1.1%
Cheshire East -0.1%
Cheshire West and Chester +0.4%
Cumbria -0.6%
Greater Manchester 0.0%
Halton -1.1%
Lancashire 0.2%
Merseyside 0.7%
Warrington 0.4%

Anyone see a problem here...?

Boroughs within Greater Manchester and Merseyside authorities listed above:

------------
Greater Manchester:
Bolton -0.7%
Bury 0.0%
Manchester +0.1%
Oldham +0.7%
Rochdale +0.3%
Salford +1.2%
Stockport -0.2%
Tameside -0.6%
Trafford +0.1%
Wigan +0.3%

Merseyside
Knowsley +0.7%
Liverpool +0.1%
Sefton +1.5%
St Helens +1.2%
Wirral +0.2%

The only areas which register 1% rises or more month-on-month are Blackburn and Darwen (1.1%) Salford and St Helens (both 1.2%), and Sefton (1.5%). All are below the supposed average of 1.8% for the region.

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/

Any ideas what explains this? Huge seasonal adjustment?

EDIT: authority/borough data is presented as a four month rolling average, not a straight monthly change. So not comparable. They might mention that on the tables tbh, not very clear.

Edited by The Knimbies who say No

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Thanks to rantnrave on the London thread for highlighting the latest release, linked here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511386/Land-Registry-February-HPI-2016.pdf

This month's edition the NW is cited as having the greatest monthly change (a rise) in prices, at an eye-catching 1.8% month on month. Here are the constituent regional authorities/metropolitan districts from the Land Registry intervactive website, with their monthly price changes:

Counties and authorities

-------------------------------

Blackburn with Darwen +1.1%

Cheshire East -0.1%

Cheshire West and Chester +0.4%

Cumbria -0.6%

Greater Manchester 0.0%

Halton -1.1%

Lancashire 0.2%

Merseyside 0.7%

Warrington 0.4%

Anyone see a problem here...?

Boroughs within Greater Manchester and Merseyside authorities listed above:

------------

Greater Manchester:

Bolton -0.7%

Bury 0.0%

Manchester +0.1%

Oldham +0.7%

Rochdale +0.3%

Salford +1.2%

Stockport -0.2%

Tameside -0.6%

Trafford +0.1%

Wigan +0.3%

Merseyside

Knowsley +0.7%

Liverpool +0.1%

Sefton +1.5%

St Helens +1.2%

Wirral +0.2%

The only areas which register 1% rises or more month-on-month are Blackburn and Darwen (1.1%) Salford and St Helens (both 1.2%), and Sefton (1.5%). All are below the supposed average of 1.8% for the region.

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/

Any ideas what explains this? Huge seasonal adjustment?

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

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I've asked them on the Twittersphere.

There may be a good explanation. Despite Free Trader's Herculean efforts over the past years, I remain regularly mystified regarding the various adjustments that take place to various HPI datasets.

In my mind is the thread from ages ago when Free Trader highlighted the various 'high value' transactions being decimal points in the wrong place, commercial property or other obvious errors that should have been easily picked up. It'll be just my luck that they've done this properly and I'll look like an **** on Twitter. Again.

Edited by The Knimbies who say No

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Guest BillyNI

That's a really interesting read. If you look at the number of sales in a given price range you'll see that the margins are decreasing at the top and the bottom. So less cheap houses (or rather houses cheaply priced) selling, less expensive houses selling. Is this decrease at the margins indicative of anything*? I would expect a decrease at the lower end but not a commensurate one at the upper end.

*avoid the obvious sarcasm.

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That's a really interesting read. If you look at the number of sales in a given price range you'll see that the margins are decreasing at the top and the bottom. So less cheap houses (or rather houses cheaply priced) selling, less expensive houses selling. Is this decrease at the margins indicative of anything*? I would expect a decrease at the lower end but not a commensurate one at the upper end.

*avoid the obvious sarcasm.

You know, I hadn't even got as far as reading the actual report. Good to know someone is!

Will be keen to see how sales volumes change in the next few editions as BTL investors get in before the SDLT hike.

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Along the same lines a monthly fall seems strange as the falls of -0.1%, -0.3% and -1.2% in Wales, West Midlands and the North East presumably outweigh the rises - of 0.6% to 1.8% - in the south east, London and the five other regions.

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The towns of Slough, Luton and Reading, once sat like venereal sores around the anulus of the M25, have now gone double bubble-mad.

The figures showed that annual price growth in London is running at 13.5%, more than double the national average, with the typical price of a property in the capital now £530,368.

However, several towns and areas notched up stronger growth than that: Slough in Berkshire topped the table with a 19% annual increase, lifting the typical price-tag to around £236,000. In Luton in Bedfordshire, property values are up 17% on a year earlier, taking the average to £169,000, while in Reading, also in Berkshire, prices are up 14.6% in a year, with the typical price there now £270,000.
The figures provide fresh evidence that buyers priced out of London are switching their attention to more affordable areas within commuting distance. Another area which has seen an influx of Londoners looking for cheaper property options is the Essex borough of Thurrock, which includes the towns of Grays, Tilbury and Purfleet. The rate of annual price growth in Thurrock in February stood at 17.2%, with the average price there said to be around £194,000.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/mar/30/property-prices-skyrocket-towns-near-london

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Thanks to rantnrave on the London thread for highlighting the latest release, linked here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511386/Land-Registry-February-HPI-2016.pdf

The trend in the repossessions is astonishing. With only 356 in December 2015 were that rate to persist through 2016 we'd be at an annual repossession volume of about 4,000 homes. Not since 1980 has the total for a year been that low. When considered as a percentage of the stock of mortgages you need to go back to 1973 to get to a point where the level was so low (DCLG Live table 1300)

What's driving this? Is it just ZIRP or are there technical changes to how lenders are regaining control of the asset which means that where things go sour it is not showing up in the repossession statistics?

Edited by Idlewild

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The trend in the repossessions is astonishing. With only 356 in December 2015 were that rate to persist through 2016 we'd be at an annual repossession volume of about 4,000 homes. Not since 1980 has the total for a year been that low. When considered as a percentage of the stock of mortgages you need to go back to 1973 to get to a point where the level was so low (DCLG Live table 1300)

What's driving this? Is it just ZIRP or are there technical changes to how lenders are regaining control of the asset which means that where things go sour it is not showing up in the repossession statistics?

The trend is as you say- astonishing, and one suspects some measures at play to keep things sweet- iirc assets were passed between (wholly owned) companies in the case of at least one bank, but not sure what happened from there. ZIRP must be allowing nonperforming loans, or those in arrears to catch up and rectify themselves in many instances.

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Interesting comments on the Guardian article linked above, although many are blaming out of control immigration for high house prices, which makes sense to an extent, but doesn't really explain why Germany and France have much lower (reasonable) annual increase in house prices even though their populations are growing much quicker than ours... Can anyone explain why?

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The trend is as you say- astonishing, and one suspects some measures at play to keep things sweet- iirc assets were passed between (wholly owned) companies in the case of at least one bank, but not sure what happened from there. ZIRP must be allowing nonperforming loans, or those in arrears to catch up and rectify themselves in many instances.

I remember this one (from 2011)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8546531/Cash-strapped-families-switch-60bn-worth-of-mortgages-to-interest-only.html

Plus I suspect more mortgage terms are being extended past retirement age to reduce monthly payments. My neighbour lost his job and he said RBS were very good about it. They extended his mortgage to age 73. By the end of 2014 34% of all mortgages were extended beyond age 65. Though obviously that might partly reflect longer mortgage terms in general.

https://www.cml.org.uk/news/news-and-views/725/

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