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ReluctantMover

Obr Forecast Of Residential Property Transactions Mar 16

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http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2016/

And the impact of the budget is covered on the Other tab on this spreadsheet

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-fiscal-tables-march-2016/

Of note

Capital Gains Tax: reduce basic rate to 10% and main rate to 20%

excluding residential property and carried interest

Receipts Capital gains tax -60 -90 -145 -160 -170 Receipts Income tax -90 -590 -510 -560 -620 Receipts Stamp duty land tax 45 50 50 50 55 Total -105 -630 -605 -670 -735

Table 1.16 of the

Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary economy tables - March 2016 (http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-economy-tables-march-2016/)

forecasts residential property transactions out to 2020 (in ,000s)

2016 1266 2017 1276 2018 1292 2019 1299 2020 1308

Table 2.6 of the

Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables - March 2016 (http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-fiscal-tables-march-2016/)

shows SDLT forecast receipts

2.6 Stamp duty land tax: Receipts by sector £ billion Outturn Forecast 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 SDLT from residential property 7.5 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 SDLT from non-residential property 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 Annual tax on enveloped dwellings (ATED) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total SDLT1 10.9 10.7 12.9 14.2 15.2 16.3

17.4

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apologies for formatting!

CGT changes expected to cost lots (£60m, £90m, £145m, £160m £170m in the next years)

Income tax falls (as a result of people making gains rather than income?) to cost lots

Stamp duty to make a bit over the term

Net cost over the period to 2020 is £2,745 billion

Resi sales to stay flat over the term

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apologies for formatting!

CGT changes expected to cost lots (£60m, £90m, £145m, £160m £170m in the next years)

Income tax falls (as a result of people making gains rather than income?) to cost lots

Stamp duty to make a bit over the term

Net cost over the period to 2020 is £2,745 billion

Resi sales to stay flat over the term

Although it looks like total Capital Gains Tax receipts (including from residential property) are forecast to increase over the same period, moving from £5.6 billion in 2014-15 to £7 billion in 2015-16, £7 billion in 2016-17, £6.9 billion in 2017-18, £7.5 billion in 2018-19, £9.2 billion in 2019-20 and £8.9 billion in 2020-21.

Total Stamp Duty Land Tax receipts (including to owner occupiers) also forecast to go up by a fair amount over that timeframe, from £10.9 billion in 2014-15 to £10.7 billion in 2015-16, £12.9 billion in 2016-17, £14.2 billion in 2017-18, £15.2 billion in 2018-19, £16.3 billion in 2019-20 and £17.4 billion in 2020-21.

(See Receipts 2.8)

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What formatting?

tumblr_lstbslosfm1qd5bcwo1_500.gif

:-)

Forecast is for pretty flat sales volumes forecast, more sdlt, and more cgt. I can't see specific data in the obr forecast for sales of resi prop other than PPR.

One interpretation of more sdlt from pretty flat sales volume points to a combination of higher prices / higher tax per transaction from buyers of 'second' homes. IIRC the obr said budget 2015 wouldn't have much effect on the housing market.

It is certain btl sales will be brought about by c24 but isn't the obr still sticking with the line that the effect on the market overall will be minimal?

Will the arrival of the first tax bill post c24 be the thing that causes most btlers to realise what it means to them? Will that prove basing it's forecasts on minimal effect to the housing market to be wrong? Or is it that the number of properties affected and (to show that a novice poster like me has paid attention) the number of landlords waiting for the gutting table is very low?

The obr doesn't have a crystal ball and there is no reason that it's current forecast is accurate, but it is a big input into government / council / lender planning isn't it? How independent is it really?

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