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Brexit Referendum Poll - In Or Out?


warpig
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It's a good speech, but hardly "Hungary on a war footing".

This is how things used to be. Since the 1970's and stretching back to the beginning of time countries have had borders and control over who/what came over them.

It's hardly some radical right wing ideology is it.

As does the US made up of 50 states. Each state doesn't have border controls as they would if they were 50 seperate countries, they understand that the economic and political benefits of being part of a bigger entity is worth it. Just imagine how much influence and power each US state would have in the world compared with what they now have if they all did what the Brexit camp are suggesting the UK does.

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Just reading through to page 3 and this rings true...

Best case outcome is little to no change in situation for the UK, worst case bears not thinking about. We have a border dispute with Spain who's vote will be needed to pass treaty change and any number of others crave the UK's finance sector.

If it doesn't go well, why would Northern Ireland or Scotland remain part of the UK.

With regards to democracy, if people didn't vote Eurosceptics into the EU parliament maybe it would be more representative.

A friend of mine wrote this to me a few weeks back and I think he makes some good points. Feel free to pick it pieces :)

"I don't like the EU as it is today. It's undemocratic and corrupt, the best bits about it are being ruined and, like the Labour Party says, it needs reforming in favour of workers, but I can't see how that would happen.

And, Boris Johnson said recently: "If the Leave side wins, it will indeed be necessary to negotiate a large number of trade deals at great speed. But why should that be impossible? We have become so used to Nanny in Brussels that we have become infantilised, incapable of imagining an independent future."

Clueless.

The kind of "jolly hockey sticks" attitude you see from managers who think because they don't know anything about it, it must be easy. Trade deals consist of thousands of pages of minute detail. This does not happen just with a "can-do" attitude and optimism! They can take years to negotiate, and still be a pile of crap.

The "leave" group is probably strategically correct not to go into detail about what a Brexit would look like. Because if you think about the details, they're horrifying.

I can see at least 8 practical problems that could lead to carnage.

Problem 1: We have a limited number of trade negotiators. We will have many, many deals to negotiate. Unless you're negotiating the same deal, it's just not practical to try and negotiate them all in parallel. This means either delay, or cheating.

Problem 2: Anything done at great speed will contain potentially devastating mistakes and short-cuts. The mostly likely short-cut taken will be to copy and paste entire sections from existing trade-deals, many of which themselves are dodgy.

Problem 3: Since we're in a hurry and under pressure, other negotiating partners will assume we'd sign anything. And they might well be right. This puts us at a huge disadvantage in negotiations.

Problem 4: more different rules for dealing with different countries is a huge burden on business, especially small businesses who trade with Europe but who cannot keep up with what's bound to be a huge number of drastic changes over a short period of time.

Problem 5: the number of trade deals, their apparent urgency and MPs' inexperience with/reluctance to read trade deals means that most deals will be put through with minimal scrutiny, with again, potentially devastating consequences. It's a classic case of "We must do something. This is something. Therefore we must do it". And of course, anyone against any trade deal would be accused of being "unpatriotic" or "anti-trade".

Problem 6: If trade deals are copy/pasted, what will the template be? Given the Government is so keen on TTIP, why not rip bits out of that? Who would bet against it? The danger to institutions like the NHS from malign or incompetent legislation is immense.

Problem 7: even when the Government wasn't under pressure it's shown a great willingness to sell off the family silver. What would happen if it was under pressure with a greedy negotiating partner backed up by threats of legal action and persuasive lobbyists? We know from TTIP that consumer champions are let nowhere near trade deals while they're being written, but corporate lobbyists are given the red carpet treatment and the chance to "contribute".

Problem 8: where there's chaos, there's opportunists. Can you imagine the highly skilled lobbyists from banks and corporations being able to resist being able to meddle in a pool of trade agreements that no one is scrutinising? It's a corporate wet dream. They wouldn't even need TTIP. And the Government might even be grateful that they were getting all this free "support" to speed things up.

Now picture all of the above while dealing with a referendum in Scotland and with Boris Johnson in charge.

As I said, I can't see this being anything but carnage.

Boris said "we have become infantilised, incapable of imagining an independent future".

Boris, we can imagine it, but we shouldn't let nationalistic pride blind us to the fact that incompetence, greed and malice will find a way to make life worse for the little guy, and that everything we know about how the system works indicates that it will not go well for the British people.

But hey, politicians, civil servants, consultants, lobbyists, corporations and bankers will undoubtedly make out like bandits."

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Britain could BENEFIT by leaving the EU, says Barclays: Bank believes worst effects of a Brexit would be felt in Europe

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3421977/Britain-BENEFIT-leaving-EU-says-Barclays-Bank-believes-worst-effects-Brexit-felt-Europe.html

I think it is a relative benefit. What happened to Lebanon and Turkey etc when Syria collapsed. Your quote says to me that if your fear is mass migration vote in. If European wealth moves to the UK we may not expect an HPC!

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California is the 5th largest economy in the world. Imagine if they broke away because they were fed up of supporting the poorer states and economic migrants flooded their state and put pressure on their infrastructure. Where's the economic and political benefits to stay in the union? It's clear there's a benefit for the smaller states and far less (if any) benefit to the larger states.

Thanks for enforcing my point of view.

As does the US made up of 50 states. Each state doesn't have border controls as they would if they were 50 seperate countries, they understand that the economic and political benefits of being part of a bigger entity is worth it. Just imagine how much influence and power each US state would have in the world compared with what they now have if they all did what the Brexit camp are suggesting the UK does.

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There's no dispute with Spain anymore than there's a dispute with the Falkland Islands, which was resolved in 1982.

The EU is collapsing, politically, socially and economically. We can benefit tremendously by presenting Britain as an independent state outside of the EU's reach. The best situation is we flourish whilst others sink, the worst case scenario is we reclaim our borders, sovereignty and British self worth whilst the world heads further in to a depression, but at least we can make our own decisions for the British population.

Just reading through to page 3 and this rings true...

Best case outcome is little to no change in situation for the UK, worst case bears not thinking about. We have a border dispute with Spain who's vote will be needed to pass treaty change and any number of others crave the UK's finance sector.

If it doesn't go well, why would Northern Ireland or Scotland remain part of the UK.

With regards to democracy, if people didn't vote Eurosceptics into the EU parliament maybe it would be more representative.

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My fear is not being able to control our future and that includes laws, benefits, immigration and our military.

Then you're reading it backwards. This is far bigger than house prices, this is about your children's right to control their own future. If you think that's less important then house prices, then you're unhinged.

I think it is a relative benefit. What happened to Lebanon and Turkey etc when Syria collapsed. Your quote says to me that if your fear is mass migration vote in. If European wealth moves to the UK we may not expect an HPC!

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Interesting then that in countries such as Spain and Greece where youth unemployment is highest that young people are turning towards left leaning politics and away from fascism.

It would be more correct to say that they are turning extreme.

As happened in the Weimar Republic, the centre ground of politics emptied, everybody voted for either the Red Front or the Nazis.

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There's no dispute with Spain anymore than there's a dispute with the Falkland Islands, which was resolved in 1982.

The EU is collapsing, politically, socially and economically. We can benefit tremendously by presenting Britain as an independent state outside of the EU's reach. The best situation is we flourish whilst others sink, the worst case scenario is we reclaim our borders, sovereignty and British self worth whilst the world heads further in to a depression, but at least we can make our own decisions for the British population.

Please explain this then, although not a publication I read or endorse;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/656327/Spain-threatens-Gibraltar-collapse-border-shutdown-threat-Brexit-European-Referendum

"Spain has used the possibility of a Brexit to escalate their long-standing anger over the disputed peninsula with a stunning threat to cut the territory adrift."

Also, Spanish ships accused of 'violating' Gibraltar's territory - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33842868

I think you have totally underestimated the worst case scenario. Which is a divided, and isolated country paying over the odds for access to the EU which is significantly larger and would have to increase military spending due to the loss and proximity to its former biggest contributor the UK. Trade with the US, China and Canada could be disrupted and the collapse of NATO in some reports is also likely.

The most realistic best case is actually not much different to now but probably much more expensive and with less influence.

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What's your point exactly? These incursions happen whilst both countries are members of the EU. Spain and Britain have been arguing about the land for as long as I've been born, so what will change if we leave the EU? Nothing.

You missed an important point in the express article I'm ashamed to have read. If they close the border they'll put 10,000 Spaniards out of work. Do you really think they'll do this or is it more likely it's yet more saber rattling?

"Spain is Gibralator's only land access to Europe and more than 10,000 people make the crossing daily from Spain to work."

I think you've overlooked the most important aspect of BREXIT, independence and free will. We're already paying over the odds to be a member of the EU (£55 million/day less the rebate), in fact we're paying more than virtually any other country and for what? To be told how our courts must act, how many fish in our own territorial waters we're allowed to fish and how many economic migrants (not refugees I might add) we must let in. Who the majority have no respect for any country they've crossed to reach us. Their culture is incompatible with ours and when they arrive in such huge numbers, they'll bind together and refuse to integrate. This isn't a future I want for my children, is this what you want for yours?

We're not isolated, where do you get this stuff from... If you mean we're surrounded by water geographically, then I guess I'll have to concede that point! By the way, they need us more than we need them. We are a nuclear power and that will be a significant dent to the EU nuclear deterrent. If France go as well, then they'll have no nuclear deterrent. We could also use our EU contributions to rebuild our armed forces, you're not thinking this through.

We will always trade with the US, China, Canada (common wealth after all!) and the EU. They need our stuff, the world is symbiotic and all that happens is we will renegotiate with each state. Why are you so fearful? NATO won't collapse, your claim is baseless.

Think positive, think British.

Please explain this then, although not a publication I read or endorse;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/656327/Spain-threatens-Gibraltar-collapse-border-shutdown-threat-Brexit-European-Referendum

"Spain has used the possibility of a Brexit to escalate their long-standing anger over the disputed peninsula with a stunning threat to cut the territory adrift."

Also, Spanish ships accused of 'violating' Gibraltar's territory - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33842868

I think you have totally underestimated the worst case scenario. Which is a divided, and isolated country paying over the odds for access to the EU which is significantly larger and would have to increase military spending due to the loss and proximity to its former biggest contributor the UK. Trade with the US, China and Canada could be disrupted and the collapse of NATO in some reports is also likely.

The most realistic best case is actually not much different to now but probably much more expensive and with less influence.

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Just to add to my previous post - The worst case scenario is we stay in the EU and we crash and burn with the rest of the EU member states. A point you're not prepared to acknowledge is, the EU is collapsing! It's monetarily structurally unsound, because it has member state bond markets which is simply untenable. Not only that but the cultural diversity across the member states means resentment is building between the more successful member states and the less successful states. Ultimately in the US, California and Washington and Texas probably don't mind supporting Alabama, but zee Germans hate supporting Greece. As this economic crisis progresses, the EU is going to tear itself apart. The EU is a busted flush, stick a fork in it.

I think you have totally underestimated the worst case scenario.

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All my claims have some merit unlike much of the Out campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194226/Brexit-could-threaten-the-Nato-alliance-says-top-US-general.html

California is bankrupt. Essentialy the Germans can't let go of Greece without bankrupting itself and if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not.

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All my claims have some merit unlike much of the Out campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194226/Brexit-could-threaten-the-Nato-alliance-says-top-US-general.html

California is bankrupt. Essentialy the Germans can't let go of Greece without bankrupting itself and if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not.

Top US general says....

Lt. Gen. Frederick "Ben" Hodges took command of U.S. Army Europe during a ceremony Wednesday in Wiesbaden, Germany.
Hodges succeeds Lt. Gen. Donald Campbell, who is retiring.
Hodges most recently commanded NATO's Allied Land Command in Izmir, Turkey.
The top U.S. general in Europe praised both Hodges and Campbell for their leadership.

I love the EU and NATO. :lol:

Hodges, a 1980 West Point graduate, said Army Europe will "continue to be ready, reliable" and "we will continue to be prepared to win in a complex world."
Wednesday's change of command follows remarks by Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno, who is visiting troops in Germany, about the service's footprint in Europe.
Speaking to German media, Odierno said the Army has no plans to withdraw any more troops from the country, Stars and Stripes reported.

Slurp, kissey, kissey, slurp, tongue flick!

Source :- http://www.armytimes.com/story/military/2014/11/05/new-commander-takes-over-at-us-army-europe/18533229/

From your own link....

Lt-Gen Hodges told the BBC that Russian aggression in Ukraine and its intervention in Syria had threatened Europe's security.
Russia had "weaponised" the migrant crisis by forcing tens of thousands of people to flee to Europe, he said.

He said, he said. What! ? :lol:

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As does the US made up of 50 states. Each state doesn't have border controls as they would if they were 50 seperate countries, they understand that the economic and political benefits of being part of a bigger entity is worth it. Just imagine how much influence and power each US state would have in the world compared with what they now have if they all did what the Brexit camp are suggesting the UK does.

Elephant alert! US is a democracy and the EU is a bureaucracy...

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"A vote to leave the EU `could` threaten the Nato alliance at a time of Russian aggression in the east, the head of the US Army in Europe has warned."

The operative word is `could` and this is just one person and you've taken it as fact and twisted `could` in to `likely.` That's called bait and switch.

" if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not."

Can I point something out to you, if there's no EU, there's no policy because the EU is dead, much like the passengers of the titanic if they followed similar advice.

All my claims have some merit unlike much of the Out campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194226/Brexit-could-threaten-the-Nato-alliance-says-top-US-general.html

California is bankrupt. Essentialy the Germans can't let go of Greece without bankrupting itself and if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not.

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All my claims have some merit unlike much of the Out campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194226/Brexit-could-threaten-the-Nato-alliance-says-top-US-general.html

California is bankrupt. Essentialy the Germans can't let go of Greece without bankrupting itself and if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not.

All my claims have some merit unlike much of the Out campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12194226/Brexit-could-threaten-the-Nato-alliance-says-top-US-general.html

California is bankrupt. Essentialy the Germans can't let go of Greece without bankrupting itself and if the EU collapsed the UK would be best served inside so we can have a say on policy which will impact us whether we like it or not.

"COULD" it`s the same for both camps ...it`s ALL speculation its just some like to present it as fact no one has a crystal ball that works

Sovereignty and democratically elected leaders is the only facts you can garner from a brexit point of view from a stay point we just carry on being ruled by unelected bureaucrats

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So we can have a say on policy to best prevent or prepare for whatever happens. If Europe collapses Brexit will be yesterday's news. If we are helping look out for icebergs we might just be OK.

Who`s this WE you talk about ?

The UK has one vote on what the unelected of the european commission decides to put on the table

If the WE you talk about is referring to the UK electorate you could not be further from the truth

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