Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

PricedOutNative

Brexit Opportunities

Recommended Posts

If we were to not leave the EU which would be the growth areas in the UK?

I could imagine an even bigger boom in HMO landlords.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's an interesting question. I think it's very clear that being in the EU helps those in the top 1% in society, and because they already have such a large percentage of income and wealth, their gain shows up as an overall gain for the country, even though many, if not most, people are worse off as wages are suppressed and asset prices are increased. I think the idea was that the 1% would be paying more in taxes, and those taxes could be redistributed to better the lives of everyone else, but the taxes seem to fall more on the top 50%, while the 1% can afford to hire smart tax accountants. On a day to day basis, is it really such a boon to the average UK citizen if they have three hand car washes to choose from in a five mile radius of their house, rather than a couple of do-it-yourself spray car washes as they have in other countries?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen car washes done by burds using just their, erm, sponges of nature!

Guess you have to be in the 1% to afford that :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't really imagine very much changing which ever way the vote goes.

I guess the obvious places to look are where the UK might (hypothetically) change relationship with the Europeans.

For example, fisheries. If we stop the Europeans fishing our waters we might see an increase in that sector again (I appreciate it's reciprocal but I believe the UK has some of the richest fishing grounds in Europe).

The tax payer would stop having to pay into European projects and subsidy schemes so the government might save some of it's annual budget each year. It would be nice if this was returned to the tax payer (lower taxes), but could also help increase funding to healthcare, schools or infrastructure investments.

Just a couple of ideas.. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sterling will crash (even more) if the UK votes for Brexit. Sterling will probably continue to weaken until the vote happens.

Massive opportunity there for currency traders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Border guards, customs officers, and an absolute army of civil servants!

I cannot see much positive about any exit. Certainly not in terms of financial opportunity. Well, there is always gold. And the dollar - and pretty much any currency that isn't the GBP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The tax payer would stop having to pay into European projects and subsidy schemes so the government might save some of it's annual budget each year. It would be nice if this was returned to the tax payer (lower taxes), but could also help increase funding to healthcare, schools or infrastructure investments.

Just a couple of ideas.. :)

I've just had a sniff around the web and find that the EU costs us £8.5bn. It's stuff all compared to the £760bn of government spend. Not a cat in hell's chance of getting it back! Besides, the costs of going it alone will eat up any saving.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just had a sniff around the web and find that the EU costs us £8.5bn. It's stuff all compared to the £760bn of government spend. Not a cat in hell's chance of getting it back! Besides, the costs of going it alone will eat up any saving.

I think UKIP put the cost at closer to £170bn in their analysis.

Whatever the actual scale.. the point is there's a saving to the tax payer which could be re-appropriated. Where ever those funds go would be a "growth area" as a result of leaving, per the OP's question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think UKIP put the cost at closer to £170bn in their analysis.

I realise UKIP have a vested interest in upping the figure - but that's a bit of a piss take. It would make it not far off 25% of *all* government expenditure. Did they really manage to keep a straight face?

I pulled figs from here - which seems reasonably impartial https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I realise UKIP have a vested interest in upping the figure - but that's a bit of a piss take. It would make it not far off 25% of *all* government expenditure. Did they really manage to keep a straight face?

I pulled figs from here - which seems reasonably impartial https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Fair point.. I think UKIP were making a case for total economic costs rather than just membership costs. I'm happy to agree the figure is probably closer to yours than mine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anything we could sell around the world that we can't already through being in the EU? I imagine we're stuffed either way as our wage costs are so much higher than say China or India.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anything we could sell around the world that we can't already through being in the EU? I imagine we're stuffed either way as our wage costs are so much higher than say China or India.

I don't see how it makes any difference at all to trade. We negotiate new trade agreements as a single country nad bring these into force coevally with withdrawing from each treaty we are in as a member of the EU.

The only people I can see being totally stuffed by Brexit are the Germans who will find themselves picking up the whole tab for the great circus. Auf Wiedersehen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the scaremongers are to be believed, we wont be able to trade with anyone ever again.

Given that we currently import far more than we export, this must be a massive boon since we will have to make everything ourselves.

I am going big on Somerset brie and British wines.

(Also thinking about setting up an inflatable dinghy shop in Calais)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the scaremongers are to be believed, we wont be able to trade with anyone ever again.

Given that we currently import far more than we export, this must be a massive boon since we will have to make everything ourselves.

I am going big on Somerset brie and British wines.

(Also thinking about setting up an inflatable dinghy shop in Calais)

I had a long debate with somebody a few years ago on a football forum as I oculd not understand why he was against our leaving the EU as he was the sort of person who I would have though wanted out; it was a good old-fashioned dialectic.

As we went through the various reasons and I explained why things weren't problems or not the problems that he though they were I eventually drilled down to the real reason he didn't want to leave; and he agreed that that was the case.

He thought that if we left the EU then they would punish us for leaving by blocking all of their markets to us and so cripple our economy. That I pointed out (and he didn't disagree) that we imported more from them then we exported to them so doing this would hurt them way more than us didn't matter. He was absolutely convinced that this would happen and for fear of that he wasn't prepared to leave.

Hence Cameron et al playing upon fear as their campaign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a long debate with somebody a few years ago on a football forum as I oculd not understand why he was against our leaving the EU as he was the sort of person who I would have though wanted out; it was a good old-fashioned dialectic.

As we went through the various reasons and I explained why things weren't problems or not the problems that he though they were I eventually drilled down to the real reason he didn't want to leave; and he agreed that that was the case.

He thought that if we left the EU then they would punish us for leaving by blocking all of their markets to us and so cripple our economy. That I pointed out (and he didn't disagree) that we imported more from them then we exported to them so doing this would hurt them way more than us didn't matter. He was absolutely convinced that this would happen and for fear of that he wasn't prepared to leave.

Hence Cameron et al playing upon fear as their campaign.

Well in £ terms we import more than we export, yes. Far more.

But in %age terms, we export a far, far higher % of gdp than the EU exports to us as a % of their GDP. Ergo it will theoretically hurt us more and we will be under more pressure than them to negotiate trade deals (theoretically ).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess HPCers should really be pro Europe.

If we had closer monetary union at the time of the crash we would have done an Ireland.. we wouldn't have been able to print, Merkel et al would be imposing severe austerity on us, and house prices would have crashed significantly.

That's perhaps the best reason for getting more deeply integrated with Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a long debate with somebody a few years ago on a football forum as I oculd not understand why he was against our leaving the EU as he was the sort of person who I would have though wanted out; it was a good old-fashioned dialectic.

As we went through the various reasons and I explained why things weren't problems or not the problems that he though they were I eventually drilled down to the real reason he didn't want to leave; and he agreed that that was the case.

He thought that if we left the EU then they would punish us for leaving by blocking all of their markets to us and so cripple our economy. That I pointed out (and he didn't disagree) that we imported more from them then we exported to them so doing this would hurt them way more than us didn't matter. He was absolutely convinced that this would happen and for fear of that he wasn't prepared to leave.

Hence Cameron et al playing upon fear as their campaign.

Two points.

While the absolute value of imports may be greater for the UK from a domestic perspective, it's a bit different when fraction of export trade is considered. The % of EU exports heading to Blighty is small - and, of course, even smaller when considered as a % of total trade including internal. It's far worse for UK.

Secondly, I there is reason to think the rump EU may be less than helpful in post Brexit negotiations. There are political reasons why they may not want to see the Quitters aided. And, as exports to UK are trivial, they can pretty much do as they please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at things from my own self interest perspective I'm applying for Italian citizenship on the basis that I will have dual EU and UK nationality and should I wish to live somewhere in Europe in the near future I will still be eligible for the freedom that the EU confers to travel and live within Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two points.

While the absolute value of imports may be greater for the UK from a domestic perspective, it's a bit different when fraction of export trade is considered. The % of EU exports heading to Blighty is small - and, of course, even smaller when considered as a % of total trade including internal. It's far worse for UK.

Secondly, I there is reason to think the rump EU may be less than helpful in post Brexit negotiations. There are political reasons why they may not want to see the Quitters aided. And, as exports to UK are trivial, they can pretty much do as they please.

This.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   34 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.