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classixuk

Keep Yer Chin Up Folks!

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It's only 2 days until the shortest day of the year, and alas the great HPC of 2005 didn't perform as expected for most of us.

Bulls continue to taunt us with headlines prediciting further rises and a few of our own have gone AWOL over the past year.

So here I am, the ghost of Christmas past with a special message of hope for you all. Please remember, if it looks like a crash, smells like a crash, sounds like a crash and feels like a crash...then it's a crash!

Here you go. The stories you are about to read have actually happened. No predictions, VI spin, or bull taunts necessary. Hope you find them as comforting as I did.

Read about a previous crash that involved huge amounts of debt

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Very honest of you ClassixUK.

You have my vote for 'honest bear of the day' :)

And I whole heartedly agree - if it looks like a crash, smells like a crash, sounds like a crash, then it is a crash.

It will be bloody obvious when and if it starts - trying to pretend somethings happening, when its not, just makes people look stupid - emperors new clothes and all that. Most bears have lost their marbles and credibility a long time ago as a result of this.

Just keep yer feet on the ground and get real !

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Guest Bart of Darkness
It will be bloody obvious when and if it starts

So obvious in fact that there are many people who deny/don't know that there was a crash in 1989-94.

Wait for the average "man in the street" to cotton on and you could be waiting a very long time.

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So obvious in fact that there are many people who deny/don't know that there was a crash in 1989-94.

Wait for the average "man in the street" to cotton on and you could be waiting a very long time.

Thats because, apart from London and its suburbs, there wasn't really a crash - prices dropped by less than 10%, the rest was inflation rating. Most people saw prices stagnate and didn't really relate to the 'real' value of money - you can call this stupid if you like ! This was because sellers just didn't want to drop the price, and just sat and waited.

Evenutally, people realised that their wages had gone up significantly and suddenly mortgages were 'cheap' and off we went again.

My recollection of the last crash, were that all the stories of Neg Eq came out of the South East.

If history repeats itself then prices are most likely to stagnate - although this time they would have to stagnate a very long time. But whilst the economy is stable and IRs are stable, then stagnate they will.

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How familiar does this sound?

In the late 1920s, it seemed as if everybody was in the stock market...Why not? Stock prices just kept going up and up, making your original investment more and more valuable. And here was the best part - you didn't need a lot of money to get into the market. You could buy "on margin".

First you borrow the money to buy the stock (interest rates were a phenomenally low 3 1/2%). Then you put up the stock as collateral for your loan. Simple, easy money -- if stock prices go up, you collect your dividends. If the price dips, you raise a little cash to cover your loss and wait for the market to rise again. In 1929, so many people were buying on margin that they had run up a debt of six billion dollars.

Spooky or what?

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We've had a lot of admissions to the local insane asylum over the last year.

It started in January 05. Mr X, the owner of a large brick and flint detached cottage style property was reported to his doctor by, of all people, his wife.

She believed that he had sold their house while the balance of his mind was disturbed. The property went on the market in January 04 priced at 565k - at the time this was very much in line with 'the market'. After a year of no offers Mr X - anxious to get things moving and get on with his retirement - accepted an offer for £469k. Land Registry figures show this is what the property sold for. It being Mr X's second marriage, the house was in his name only. His wife, deeply distressed, feeling a mixture of pity and anger towards her husband went and had a chat with the family doctor.

To be fair, he took the only reasonable action he could - he had Mr X sectioned.

Later in the year two local property developers suffered the same fate. A block of flats they finished proved difficult to sell at the asking price of £255k. After 6 months they managed to sell one of the eight for £255k but then they dropped the price progressively and sold the fourth one for £215k. A local carpentry sub-contractor, who had not been paid everything he was owed, wrote to the local paper saying that the developers were mad - 'why would anyone drop the prices of their properties in what was clearly a rising market?' He said, 'every survey I have read - from Hometrack to the RICS to Rightmove to Halifax and the Nationwide - says prices are rising - yet these fools are dropping their prices, As a result, people are suspicious that there is something wrong with the flats and are not buying them. It looks like I am never going to get the money I am owed!'

Four of the flats remain unsold and the developers have both been sectioned at the instigitation of their wives 'for their own good and to protect their business interests when they were clearly no longer fit to do so themselves.'

Now, other developers who have completed properties they cannot sell, sit nervously wondering what their fate will be. They too, it is rumoured, want to drop prices to get some properties sold but are masking the price drops by offering incentives like 'mortgage paid for year, stamp duty paid, etc. etc.' However, there are still those breaking ranks. I visited the flats opposite Crowthorne station recently posing as a potential buyer and the woman in the sales office let her guard down and offered me an immediate 15% discount - before I had even discussed the price.

I reported her to her employers the next day. The men with white coats came later in the day to sort the problem out.

Anyone who attempts to buck the rising property market must be prepared to pay a heavy price.

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Thats because, apart from London and its suburbs, there wasn't really a crash - prices dropped by less than 10%, the rest was inflation rating. Most people saw prices stagnate and didn't really relate to the 'real' value of money - you can call this stupid if you like ! This was because sellers just didn't want to drop the price, and just sat and waited.

Evenutally, people realised that their wages had gone up significantly and suddenly mortgages were 'cheap' and off we went again.

My recollection of the last crash, were that all the stories of Neg Eq came out of the South East.

If history repeats itself then prices are most likely to stagnate - although this time they would have to stagnate a very long time. But whilst the economy is stable and IRs are stable, then stagnate they will.

Yes that's my memory. A few people were badly burned but that was almost always associated with the loss of employment or business or high interest rate payments (poor budgeting). Everyone else simply didn't move for a while including my parents who tried to sell in 94, gave up for 4 years, and then rode the crest.

If the economy goes down the pan, how sure are you that YOU will be able to afford all this cheap housing that's about to arrive...

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IMupNorth

Thats because, apart from London and its suburbs, there wasn't really a crash - prices dropped by less than 10%, the rest was inflation.

Simply not true I'm afraid.

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We've had a lot of admissions to the local insane asylum over the last year.

It started in January 05. Mr X, the owner of a large brick and flint detached cottage style property was reported to his doctor by, of all people, his wife.

She believed that he had sold their house while the balance of his mind was disturbed. The property went on the market in January 04 priced at 565k - at the time this was very much in line with 'the market'. After a year of no offers Mr X - anxious to get things moving and get on with his retirement - accepted an offer for £469k. Land Registry figures show this is what the property sold for. It being Mr X's second marriage, the house was in his name only. His wife, deeply distressed, feeling a mixture of pity and anger towards her husband went and had a chat with the family doctor.

To be fair, he took the only reasonable action he could - he had Mr X sectioned.

Later in the year two local property developers suffered the same fate. A block of flats they finished proved difficult to sell at the asking price of £255k. After 6 months they managed to sell one of the eight for £255k but then they dropped the price progressively and sold the fourth one for £215k. A local carpentry sub-contractor, who had not been paid everything he was owed, wrote to the local paper saying that the developers were mad - 'why would anyone drop the prices of their properties in what was clearly a rising market?' He said, 'every survey I have read - from Hometrack to the RICS to Rightmove to Halifax and the Nationwide - says prices are rising - yet these fools are dropping their prices, As a result, people are suspicious that there is something wrong with the flats and are not buying them. It looks like I am never going to get the money I am owed!'

Four of the flats remain unsold and the developers have both been sectioned at the instigitation of their wives 'for their own good and to protect their business interests when they were clearly no longer fit to do so themselves.'

Now, other developers who have completed properties they cannot sell, sit nervously wondering what their fate will be. They too, it is rumoured, want to drop prices to get some properties sold but are masking the price drops by offering incentives like 'mortgage paid for year, stamp duty paid, etc. etc.' However, there are still those breaking ranks. I visited the flats opposite Crowthorne station recently posing as a potential buyer and the woman in the sales office let her guard down and offered me an immediate 15% discount - before I had even discussed the price.

I reported her to her employers the next day. The men with white coats came later in the day to sort the problem out.

Anyone who attempts to buck the rising property market must be prepared to pay a heavy price.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Excellent!

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Of course it depends where you live as to when things went negative, in my case our area is YOY +0.4% and as such I didn't expect 2005 to adopt crash conditions.

The last vestiges of HPI are being rung out of the system, Burnley being a prime example of such a phenomenon. No place however depressing, has now become the haunt of the capital appreciation seekers. I'm not picking on Burnley persay, just using it as an example of a low wage, low expectation, mill town displaying all the ills of an economy in decline, known for it's racial riots, yet was being vaunted as the next property hotspot in 2005.

All the economic indicators are suggesting there are hard times ahead, higher unemployment, higher debt, lower spending because of all that debt, higher energy costs, more stealth taxes, depreciating currency, rising cost of living due to inflaton, albeit the latter being hidden by the use of smoke and mirrors. So what exactly is going to prop/ drive up the value of an already over priced asset based on the valuation relative to its cost to produce? Not sure of the exact wording but as Mervyn King head of the BOE said "debt is real where as house prices are a matter of opinion"

So when hard proof starts slipping away to support rising house prices, those who earn their corn in the housing market start bombarding the public with "articles based on beliefs" that prices will go up, interest rates will go down [a sure sign the economy is on it's knees as apposed to being on the up] Pointing to miniscule bear market rallies caused by the ill informed, plus dupped inexperianced FTB'ers as proof positive that the market is on the turn. But that's exactly what they did last time, pump the press with tales of jam tomorrow, VI Spin During The Last Correction They appealed to those human traits GREED and FEAR in exhorting people to sit tight on their overpriced asset or jump on board or miss out . From here on in they have nothing left in their armoury other than the Mind Games they employ to dupe the gullable............oh and endless re runs of Location Locatio Location, Property Ladder, Trading Up, Homes under the Hammer....

Edited by Catch22

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IMupNorth

Thats because, apart from London and its suburbs, there wasn't really a crash - prices dropped by less than 10%, the rest was inflation.

Simply not true I'm afraid.

Oh go on then OnlyMe - draw me a graph of Yorkshires price's inflation adjusted from 1980 - 2000 and prove it to me ?!

And if you've got time, do a few more regions aswell.

Thanks, mate. :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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