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The12YearWait

Net Migration To The Uk Was 323,000

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Estimated net migration to the UK was 323,000 in the year to September 2015, figures published by the Office for National Statistics show.

That represents an increase of 31,000 on the same period in 2014/15 - but is down slightly on the record figure of 336,000 for the year to June 2015.

The figures show 165,000 EU citizens came to the UK for work reasons.

Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35658731

Seen many topics about immigration not being related to HPI, but at what point does it become an issue?

This is almost the equivalent of adding the entire population of Hampshire (3rd most populated county) to the country every 5 years.

Edited by The12YearWait

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For sure it's a local overcrowding issue. All those extra adults requiring immediate housing. If the increase in population was through indigenous births they would be living in their parents' home for the next 20/30/40 years.

Edited by billybong

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Good to see the Conservatives with their moronic leader Cameron (Camoron) are continuing the destructive work of previous governments.

This is a betrayal of duty. They are deliberately destroying the country to pursue a misguided policy.

There will be a reckoning at some point.

Edited by Errol

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Thing is the vast majority of these will be in England most notably Southern England where there is minimal building and the house price situation is far worse.

In Northern England where i currently am a nice house to rent can be on the market for some months and you can negotiate a deal, in the south the same place would be snapped up in hours, this must show some kind of shortage.

Edited by The12YearWait

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Privatise and subdivide the housing stock. Fill those garrets and tenements to bursting with Third World immigrants.

Tory boy rentier/slumlord paradise.

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It would be relevant if there are any charts that show that immigration levels have any real correlation with house prices. I'd specifically like to see the one that shows all the immigrants leaving in 2007 (when house prices went down) before coming back the next year (boosting house prices again).

If we cut HtB and all the easy credit (and other govt backed schemes that are propping up prices tomorrow) but kept all the immigrants - are we saying that house prices would remain pretty much the same?

Edited by repetitive bleats

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Thing is the vast majority of these will be in England most notably Southern England where there is minimal building and the house price situation is far worse.

In Northern England where i currently am a nice house to rent can be on the market for some months and you can negotiate a deal, in the south the same place would be snapped up in hours, this must show some kind of shortage.

Even in South East England, it's only certain types of houses that are in high demand, i.e. small flats or houses that can be packed full of sharers. Nicer houses to rent (i.e places for upper-middle class families) are really not that expensive and there isn't a huge demand.

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Estimated net migration to the UK was 323,000 in the year to September 2015, figures published by the Office for National Statistics show.

That represents an increase of 31,000 on the same period in 2014/15 - but is down slightly on the record figure of 336,000 for the year to June 2015.

The figures show 165,000 EU citizens came to the UK for work reasons.

Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35658731

Seen many topics about immigration not being related to HPI, but at what point does it become an issue?

This is almost the equivalent of adding the entire population of Hampshire (3rd most populated county) to the country every 5 years.

Net migration does affect HPI. Not as much as low IR and easy lending, but it still affects HPI.

You could probably write a mathematical proof, I don't have the time myself but we can theorise the follwing:

In a given nation with strict zoning laws (greenbelt) and a given population all living in properties, it follows that

-Construction is limited and controlled to benefit nature reserves, farm land, condensed cities

-Enough houses are built to manage a slow but growing total fertility rate

-Houses are bought by means of mortgages at x3.5 income

-There are jobs that pay an average of x money, there is a small amount of unemployment.

So the cost of houses are derived from the ability of newer generations to purchase at 3.5x income in an almost volume fixed housing market.

If you introduce +1 immigrants, that immigrant will need food, shelter and a job. The advantage of the immigrant is that he can compete on wage, as s/he comes from a less economically wealthy nation.

The result on houses and incomes is:

- More competition for the n of jobs

- More competition for the n of houses

The distortion is too fold

so

if you can make an equation and plug in numbers try it with +300000

The price of a house has gone up by a fraction

The average wage has decrease by a fraction,

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Guest eight

What is the figure for numbers arriving and the numbers that have left?

It would be relevant if there are any charts that show that immigration levels have any real correlation with house prices. I'd specifically like to see the one that shows all the immigrants leaving in 2007 (when house prices went down) before coming back the next year (boosting house prices again).

I've met a lot of EU immigrants in my time. I don't know of one that has ever left.

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I've met a lot of EU immigrants in my time. I don't know of one that has ever left.

...people come and go.....a net figure only part of the picture, lots of UK nationals migrate to other places. ;)

Would be good to see the last ten or fifteen years of exits and entries that we know about/ have confirmed figures for.

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FOUND IT

https://core.ac.uk/download/files/153/6857964.pdf

There is a growing body of literature looking at the e§ect of immigration on house prices in di§erent countries. This is an important dimension of the economic e§ects of immigration given the large weight that housing consumption has on the household budget. This article contributes to the immigration literature by estimating the e§ect of immigration on house prices in the UK and highlighting the channels through which this e§ect takes place. Using data on immigration and house prices for 159 local authorities in England and Wales, I Önd that immigration has a negative e§ect on house prices. An ináow of immigrants equal to 1% of the local population reduces house prices by 1:6%. A simple theoretical model and my empirical estimates on native population growth and mobility suggest that one explanation for this negative e§ect is the mobility response of natives. The estimates show that an immigrant ináow equal to 1% of the local population leads to a native outáow equal to 0:849% of the local population and increases the native out-migration rate by 0:132 percentage points. 18 Looking at the wage distribution of the local population, I Önd that local areas with high immigration tend to be at the bottom of the wage distribution. This is mostly due to the fact that natives have lower wages in high immigration cities. This Önding can be explained by two factors. First, there is some evidence that immigration has a negative e§ect on native natives at the lower end of the wage distribution. Second, natives who leave the city are at the top of the wage distribution. This generates a negative income e§ect on housing demand and pushes down house prices in local areas where immigrants cluster. Behind these overall e§ects, there are some important di§erences depending on the level of education of the local immigrant population. The negative e§ect of immigration on house prices is driven by areas where the share of immigrants with lower education is high. This is consistent with the intuition from the theoretical model which suggests that, in local areas where immigrants are more educated (and hence have higher wages), immigration exerts a positive income e§ect on housing demand which counteracts the negative income e§ect from native out-mobility.

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I've met a lot of EU immigrants in my time. I don't know of one that has ever left.

I knew a few who left from Greece (they retired to Thailand).They were running a massive fag smuggling operation with their Turkish friends who owned a few dozen kebab shops.The Turks didnt leave though they just run the fags themselves now.

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...people come and go.....a net figure only part of the picture, lots of UK nationals migrate to other places. ;)

Would be good to see the last ten or fifteen years of exits and entries that we know about/ have confirmed figures for.

Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving.

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If a immigrant augmented workforce is desirable, how come the UK, despite long working hours, Zero Hour Contracts, and explosion of overeas workers, seeing a record production gap in relation to other G7 nations?

The 2004 and onwards input of foreign workers was a just a short term boon and reached a point of diminishing returns, short circuiting and slowly imploding a worthwhile job market for the UK masses.

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Charts for UK net migration/immigration/emigration in the link below - 1975 to 2015.

From that net migration grew rapidly year after year from about 1997 then was pretty flat after 2007 until a small dip after the 2010 general election before picking up again to set fresh records.

It also allows you to set up your own charts for different regions - EU/Commonwealth etc.

Numbers based on ONS statistics.

Edited by billybong

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There is a large section of society that benefit from migration, namely big business, and there are very many others that have reason to believe they do not, those who believe they are in competition for resources such as shelter, health, schooling, space etc....they also think a bigger pool of competition of labour drags down wages, creates conjestion......it is only now that the state seem to think that the advantages of uncontrolled immigration and the support that many low skilled migrants require is not as great as it once was, worth paying for....needs of others also create jobs......a fine-tuned balancing act....all big changes affect different people in different ways, both for the good and not so good. ;)

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Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving.

Yes, so we could have 2 million leaving and 2 million 323 thousand arriving.........I want to know how many are leaving each year for the last ten years and how many are arriving every year over the last ten years.....

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An ináow of immigrants equal to 1% of the local population reduces house prices by 1:6%. A simple theoretical model and my empirical estimates on native population growth and mobility suggest that one explanation for this negative e§ect is the mobility response of natives. The estimates show that an immigrant ináow equal to 1% of the local population leads to a native outáow equal to 0:849% of the local population and increases the native out-migration rate by 0:132 percentage points.

It doesn't seem to consider what happens to house prices where the higher paid "native outflow" goes to.

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