Simon Taylor Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Staggering. https://next.ft.com/content/b171b607-b65e-3377-b5f4-f3a50e75bca5 Here's a highlight: Gross mortgage borrowing jumped 38 per cent year-on-year in January to £13.6bn, according to data from the BBA. That’s the highest since mid-2008. Something happened in mid-2008, anyone remember? Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics says: Looking ahead, we expect approvals to remain on an upward trend. Consumer confidence is high, real income gains remain strong and mortgage rates are set to fall again in response to the decline in wholesale funding costs. New buyer enquiries at estate agents have been rising quickly and point to mortgage approvals rising by a further 5% over the next three months. With the active supply of homes on the market close to record lows, house prices look set for very strong gains. Perhaps we're the one marching out of step? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If you lend it, they will come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Staggering. https://next.ft.com/content/b171b607-b65e-3377-b5f4-f3a50e75bca5 Here's a highlight: Gross mortgage borrowing jumped 38 per cent year-on-year in January to £13.6bn, according to data from the BBA. That’s the highest since mid-2008. Something happened in mid-2008, anyone remember? Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics says: Looking ahead, we expect approvals to remain on an upward trend. Consumer confidence is high, real income gains remain strong and mortgage rates are set to fall again in response to the decline in wholesale funding costs. New buyer enquiries at estate agents have been rising quickly and point to mortgage approvals rising by a further 5% over the next three months. With the active supply of homes on the market close to record lows, house prices look set for very strong gains. Perhaps we're the one marching out of step? It suggests it`s down to BTL jumping in before the SDLT rise.2008 could well be right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Perhaps we're the one marching out of step? HPC won't happen until the next credit crunch. Near or far, I have no idea. Pay up, leave, or cheat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streamingfreedom Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HPC won't happen until the next credit crunch. Near or far, I have no idea. Pay up, leave, or cheat. I think you've got it spot on. It's hard to believe the money is there to keep blowing the bubble but it is... until it isn't because of a credit crunch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Consumers are confident? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Consumers are confident? Plastic fantastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 (edited) HPC won't happen until the next credit crunch. Near or far, I have no idea. Pay up, leave, or cheat. There will be no credit crunch, the banks are funded by the QE magix printing press. The banking system dies in 2007...something else will need to happen. A government collapse, or a monetary cpollapse, a dollar collapse, 2% IRs in the US, war, famine, small nucleur device in London. Edited February 24, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 38%....that seems an awful lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HPC won't happen until the next credit crunch. Near or far, I have no idea. Pay up, leave, or cheat. If this credit cycle is another 16 or so years (2 x biz cycles a la haldane) then far seems like a reasonable bet (with 1 recession betwixt) With the active supply of homes on the market close to record lows, house prices look set for very strong gains. Supply problem. Who knew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 (edited) If this credit cycle is another 16 or so years (2 x biz cycles a la haldane) then far seems like a reasonable bet (with 1 recession betwixt) Supply problem. Who knew. Yes, there was absolutely no supply in Ireland and Spain as prices went to the stars......there is no glut of new build flats in London ( the one thing driving prices now ). Stupidity problem more like. Edited February 24, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 (edited) Supply problem. Who knew. It's only a supply problem when you allow BTLers to leverage themselves tenfold buying up as much as they can with easy credit, whilst underpinning prices with taxpayer-backed schemes. Edited February 24, 2016 by Eddie_George Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If this credit cycle is another 16 or so years (2 x biz cycles a la haldane) then far seems like a reasonable bet (with 1 recession betwixt) Supply problem. Who knew. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/208547-house-price-rises-caused-by-lack-of-houses-utter-tosh/ We all knew it wasnt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's only a supply problem when you allow BTLers to leverage themselves tenfold buying up as much as they can with easy credit whilst underpinning prices with taxpayer-backed schemes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Taylor Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 If this credit cycle is another 16 or so years (2 x biz cycles a la haldane) then far seems like a reasonable bet (with 1 recession betwixt) Supply problem. Who knew. Yes, I read that line and considered quoting it but thought it might help things veer off-topic. Looks like The Count took the bait... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 With the HTB wedge firmly rammed I wouldn't be surprised to see HTB 40% in the rest of the country and much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 To make the same return today at ultra low interest rates.....lenders have to lend four times as much money. House costing £100k......now therefore cost in excess of £400k..........wages are stagnant and not as secure with declining perks such as good final salary pensions, job security.....what we have is self employment, contract work, Zero or low hours guarantee contract like six hours a week......rolling contracts etc, etc.......a long-term debt means a long-term way of paying that debt.....when it rarely exists today.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Mid 2008.... Samuel Tombs... Oh Dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Next credit crunch is almost upon us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Next credit crunch is almost upon us. ......when values take a downturn, available credit will take a downturn....confidence is key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If you lend it, they will come.++++++1The primary reason for House Price Inflation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 ++++++1 The primary reason for House Price Inflation No debt = No inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Next credit crunch is almost upon us. Care to elaborate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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