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stuckin2up2down

I'm Tempted To Sell Now

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I bought my tiny house 4 years ago in Bristol. I don't love it and want to move to something else, but I did buy it for cash.

Bristol seems very bubbly at the moment, but things are still selling quickly.

I'm thinking about selling, moving somewhere in south wales for half the price and investing my money somewhere. They have to crash soon.

Anyone else toying with this?

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I'd do some maths around house prices, salary saved pm, and travel costs to work. And some emotional logical thinking around where you want to live.

If it was a cheap place (relative to earnings), near to work, and OK (even if not loved) then I'd consider staying while piling salary into investments. For me, I'd have to be looking at chunky financial gains (relative to years-savings) or emotional benefits before I considered the hassle and costs of selling and moving - and then commuting.

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Great.

Sell.

Leave.

If you're looking for justifications for you decision from an open internet forum then you perhaps should think twice before tying your shoe laces never mind selling your house.

Can anyone smell trolls ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Er, what's troll-esque about the OP?

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Er, what's troll-esque about the OP?

Look at me...iv'e made lots of money in Bristol.

My troll sense may be malfunctioning though, i've been wrong most of the time :lol:

Actually, thinking about it....where have the trolls gone ?

Are they too busy being right and spending their free wealth ?

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Sell to move to another country whilst things sort themselves here would be a good bet.

America?

Im with you on that, sell. Leave. I personally dont see much future in the UK especially for your childrne if you have any.

not sure America would be my choice tho.

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Flog the house, move to cash, bonds and gold. flog those in 6 months. Go all in on shares in 12 months time.

Enjoy your first million £

This is not advice.

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I bought my tiny house 4 years ago in Bristol. I don't love it and want to move to something else, but I did buy it for cash.

Bristol seems very bubbly at the moment, but things are still selling quickly.

I'm thinking about selling, moving somewhere in south wales for half the price and investing my money somewhere. They have to crash soon.

Anyone else toying with this?

Whack it up for sale with an outrageously inflated price - you might get some idiot willing to pay.

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Forget selling, I'd be looking to buy more if I was you. Build yourself a nice little property empire, make young people your money work for you you'll be able to retire in twenty years the houses will have been paid off and you can sit back and watch the rent roll in. FREEmoney!!

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Market timing is usually seen as a tricky proposition with any asset. Not sure I'd want to do that with something as fundamental as your home. The only time I'd consider it would be if other factors were forcing a sale anyway. My goal is to pay down mortgage ASAP and only trade up using cash on a decent 50% drop in the market at some point in the future.

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I'd do some maths around house prices, salary saved pm, and travel costs to work. And some emotional logical thinking around where you want to live.

If it was a cheap place (relative to earnings), near to work, and OK (even if not loved) then I'd consider staying while piling salary into investments. For me, I'd have to be looking at chunky financial gains (relative to years-savings) or emotional benefits before I considered the hassle and costs of selling and moving - and then commuting.

It's seeing how much and how quickly houses down the road have sold for over the last few months. That and I hate my anti social neighbour and the boiler looks like its on its way out.

I'm very tempted as this could be the year they do crash and I only ever bought this little house to hedge my bets.

That said I haven't even had my house valued, not sure EA are desperate for houses but they do flier often. I am a bit uneasy about risking my home, but this crazyness can't go on for much longer.

Its a house ripe to be extended and converted, so I'm tempted to put it up for a ridiculous amount and see if I can catch a boomer.

How is this even remotely trolling? I thought this site was built on STR people?

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If you'd bought in London 5 years ago and made a couple of hundred grand i could understand, surely a small house in Bristol has made you not much more than 60K.

In which case i'd suggest you think like someone from 1996 and realise houses are for living in.

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This is fundamentally wrong 12yearwait. Buying is a sunk cost. If you bought for £0.5m in London and could sell now for £1m, you don't sell now because you've made £0.5m. You sell because you are about to lose £0.25m or £0.5m or whatever.

Even if you'd have to sell for less than you bought for, selling could be wise. It's a difficult decision (transaction costs, timing, renting, opportunity costs, personal factors, stress and inconvenience...), but insofar as you think about prices and bubbles, think about what will happen in the future, not what happened in the past.

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This is fundamentally wrong 12yearwait. Buying is a sunk cost. If you bought for £0.5m in London and could sell now for £1m, you don't sell now because you've made £0.5m. You sell because you are about to lose £0.25m or £0.5m or whatever.

Even if you'd have to sell for less than you bought for, selling could be wise. It's a difficult decision (transaction costs, timing, renting, opportunity costs, personal factors, stress and inconvenience...), but insofar as you think about prices and bubbles, think about what will happen in the future, not what happened in the past.

He's implying about getting out of the rat race, if one had made 500K sometimes you've just got to cut and run, as no one really knows what will happen to the housing market in the short to mid term due to govt and central bank manipulation hence how could you know you're about to win or lose big.

Point i was making is a small house in Bristol will hardly likely have set him up for life to be playing the jump in and out of the property market game. Risky strategy for what is a rather lot of hassle.

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This is fundamentally wrong 12yearwait. Buying is a sunk cost. If you bought for £0.5m in London and could sell now for £1m, you don't sell now because you've made £0.5m. You sell because you are about to lose £0.25m or £0.5m or whatever.

Even if you'd have to sell for less than you bought for, selling could be wise. It's a difficult decision (transaction costs, timing, renting, opportunity costs, personal factors, stress and inconvenience...), but insofar as you think about prices and bubbles, think about what will happen in the future, not what happened in the past.

High prices should bring out more sellers, but this has not been occurring so much.... with inventory on market scraping lows.

Mix of forever HPI thinking, low rates, and perhaps some concern about safety of huge HPI gainz in the bank.

Although I'm not so worried about savings I've put together. Always take saving in the bank vs alternative at buying at these prices). Banks have shrunk balance sheets, and much better positioned to take HPC now, than in 2008. Yet many, including those on HPC, don't see it that way.

Very few owners get out at peak prices. Values set at the margin.

When the volume of credit is large, investors can perceive vast sums of money and value when in fact there are only repayment contracts. [..]When the market turns down, the dynamic goes into reverse. Only a very few owners of a collapsing financial asset trade it for money at 90 percent of peak value. Some others may get out at 80 percent, 50 percent or 30 percent of peak value. In each case, sellers are simply transforming the remaining future value losses to someone else. In a bear market, the vast, vast majority does nothing and gets stuck holding assets with low or pre-existant valuations. You see - the investor never really had a million pounds from his £1m stock market portfolio. The idea that it had a certain financial value as in his head and the heads of others who agreed. When the point of agreement changed, so did the value. Poof! Gone in a flash of aggregated neurons. This is exactly what happens to most investment assets in a period of deflation.

One reason I believe so few sellers, is because so many owners/investors have been caught up in the dream of forever HPI to impossible levels... lapping it up.

Even here there are hpcers who have been claiming, up until recently anyway, that it's going to be a new HPI champagne ripple (Buy Now or Miss Out because Massive New HPI Wave coming'), and following the 'logic' some of the most committed HPI Gurus around.

Daily Mail

8 September 2014

Average UK house price to hit £780,000 by 2040, says leading think tank

Kilo Charlie, My World, 9 hours ago

We purchased a property in 1983 for £72,000.........today it's worth £650,000 plus. It's certainly possible and quite likely.

Sam, Bucks, 3 hours ago

Bought house in ,74 for 16k added extention about £8k now valued at £480k you do the maths?

We - but with Stamp Duty hike for BTLers from 1 April 2016, and C24, and other ratcheting that's been going on for quite some time, - exits becoming narrower, against a mindset of forever HPI. Together with tightening in money-flows from China and Russia and changing conditions of some of the oil countries... I'm very comfortable waiting for real HPC.

All the anti-STRs can't offer us excuses if we have significant drops in housing values ahead.

It's been tinfoil-hat extremes on hpc for a few weeks. I argue the banks want the HPC, for profitable fresh lending, against £Trillions in equity on the owner side, that's not making banks much money. Carney has said it's not really the banks carry the risks, and all stress-tested to survive big HPC and a big stock market crash.

What annoys many people is rachman - like many in London - are literally lottery winners. (Being given £1-1.5 million pounds fir nothing can most definitely be classed as a lottery win)

And are not even cashing it in !!

There is also the belief that they are somehow deserving of it - which is ********.

Everyone goes on about "banksters" screwing people over all the time, IME it's largely the bankers getting blamed when you read other forums or newspapers or just talk to people IRL. As I see it Venger is just trying to even up the scorecard to something a bit more accurate i.e. that both parties are to blame and both should have to face the consequences. That the banks got bailed out is done and dusted, would that it had gone another way but there is no changing that now only arguing for it not to happen again. I think to call it a conspiracy is probably a bit much though, I doubt there was a lot of sitting around with fat cigars and white cats planning the whole thing, it seems more like an emergent consequence of a poorly constructed system that incentivised all of the wrong kinds of behaviour from the people involved in it on both sides (said people being basically interchangeable, if we replayed the whole thing with the borrowers and lenders switching roles I doubt we'd be anywhere different).

A big-boy done it and ran away.

You have to be a pretty senior banker to have benefited as much from the Potempkin economy as a middle-class London home owner, but no-one wants to talk about that.

A lot of bankers did benefit, it's just that plenty of other people also benefited and benefited more in many cases.

There are plenty of people who have made more through the housing bubble than they have ever earned in their lives. For landlords and London homeowners or anyone with an inheritance the amounts are similar to lottery wins - hundreds of thousands or millions - largely untaxed.

Those people wanted the banks to inflate the bubble, and they wanted the bailout. They may even be the reason there was a bailout, but none ever holds them responsible.

People love to blame banks for what happened, but millions of people were complicit. Most obviously the banks didn't get any criticism when the damage was actually happening. They only get blamed for stopping it.

Even now the British middle aged middle classes are clamouring to go back to the days when the crisis was still looming, so they can play at being property developers.

Well many have danced into BTL forever HPI people-farming, outbidding FTBs, embracing the 'facts' of "Generation Rent Forever" with all lessons from 2008 forgotten. Now they can eat a market looking at C24 and higher stamp duty for BTLers, and tightening monetary policy. One paper I read the other night suggested just the end of US QE (back in mid 2015 as I recall it) was equivalent tightening of 11 x .25% base rate rises in US. Then we recently had such a rise too.

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I bought my tiny house 4 years ago in Bristol. I don't love it and want to move to something else, but I did buy it for cash.

Bristol seems very bubbly at the moment, but things are still selling quickly.

I'm thinking about selling, moving somewhere in south wales for half the price and investing my money somewhere. They have to crash soon.

Anyone else toying with this?

Bristol is nuts.

My soon to be ex wife and I sold the family home and she bid up a 2 bed house in Horfield by £46k more than the asking price, suffice to say I am looking in Easton and have an offer accepted on a 2 bed wreck for £130k, so I have read this thread with interest and am going to the Hollis Morgan auction tomorrow on Pembroke Road to see if I can grab a bargain, personally I want Lot 3, am toying with the idea of Wales / Peurto Rico etc but have kids here - blum! --- Give me a shout if you're looking for a quick sale icutts@hotmail.com

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