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Economic Analysis Of Brexit - Woodford Funds / Capital Economics

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8.4. Summary: Small property downsides, small consumption upsides

It seems clear that the City is the part of the British property market that has most to lose if the United

Kingdom opts to leave the European Union. It is certainly possible to tell a story in which the damage

done could be considerable but the role of the financial services sector in holding up the property

market is probably overstated, leading us to believe that any negative impacts will be small, certainly

at a macroeconomic level.

We anticipate that the impacts on the property market overall and on aggregate consumption in the

economy will be limited. In the case of the latter, they may well be positive due to beneficial effects from

independent policymaking on immigration, trade and regulation, as well as savings to the exchequer

(which may then be disbursed in the form of lower taxes).

Ultimately the issue is likely to hinge crucially on the terms that the United Kingdom can negotiate in

the event that it does decide to leave. In turn, that may well depend on how the government’s attempts

to negotiate European Union reform are received over the next few months and how fearful leaders on

the continent are that if Britain was to vote to leave that could set an unwelcome precedent for others.

see link page 30/section 8.

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   102 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

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