Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
R K

Nassim Taleb Boe Flagship Seminar 18Feb 4.15Pm Link

Recommended Posts

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/onebank/seminars/180216.aspx

One Bank Flagship Seminar by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics

The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part – Detecting Fragility – presents heuristics to detect fragility in portfolios. Fragility is shown to be ‘anything that is harmed by volatility’. The good news is that while (tail) risk is not measurable, fragility is.

All places for this event have now been allocated.

View the webcast live here from 4:15pm on Thursday 18 February 2016

Join the conversation, use the Twitter Hashtag for this event: #BoETaleb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

nice find, looks interesting, not the sort of person you would expect the BOE to be entertaining.

I hope they record it, as I'll be at work then :(

Why wouldn't they have a well known writer on economics along to talk?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All the people spouting all the chartist guff like "head and shoulders" and "elliot wave" should read Fooled by Randomness ... because they have been.

Edited by goldbug9999

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching now but you can't see his slides which sucks a bit.

It does. Probably helps if youve read Anti-fragile

Link in OP or starts at 1hr 20m or so in here with intro from haldane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why wouldn't they have a well known writer on economics along to talk?

Bankophobia

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It does. Probably helps if youve read Anti-fragile

Link in OP or starts at 1hr 20m or so in here with intro from haldane.

I've only read the black swan so will have to get a copy of anti-fragile. He has always pointed out the problems with normal distributions, so the fat tails and highlighting the poor understanding of stats was along these same lines. Was an interesting lecture nevertheless.

Edited by renting til I die

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've only read the black swan so will have to get a copy of anti-fragile. He has always pointed out the problems with normal distributions, so the fat tails and highlighting the poor understanding of stats was along these same lines. Was an interesting lecture nevertheless.

I can recommend it. My favourite. Same themes with more mathematical underpinnings and wider application and pulled the whole thing together for me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   94 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.