ChewingGrass Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Been pondering this during my cycling this morning after reading this article earlier. [post=http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/13/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi]http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/13/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi[/post] AI doesn't have to be of the Hollywood robot variety and is more suited to those keyboard oriented tasks that the vast majority of jobs have morphed into in the last 50 years. Many middle class jobs will be readily eliminated, AI never tires and is always vigilant, never takes a comfort break, doesn't need a holiday or require a pension and sick-pay. Business analysts - not required, Project managers - not required, Accountants - not required, Administrators -not required, H.R. Personel virtually eliminated, same for Driving occupations the list goes on. Large Corporations will automate their dealings with other large corporations, the most successful ones will be the ones that make the quickest decisions, trading of stock will be totally automated, the loosers will be assimilated into ever larger corporations until there are only a handful. This handful will disguise the fact by retaining the brands and trading names of the absorbed. Forecasting a base unemployment level of 50% in 30 years time where does this leave unproductive humans and their unfunded housing requirements. The answer is renting. The housing stock will then be prefabricated to a number of designs according to rental cost and designed with a maintenance free life of around 25 years at which point it will simply be replaced as a complete unit with old one recycled. Most of the materials of construction and insulation etc will also be recycled and the plant constructing these homes will be almost entirely utomated along the lines of Teslas latest car plant in the US. Day to day building trades will be decimated, bricks will be the construction material of the elite as they will imply status, private landlords will no longer exist as they will have been financially wiped out. People with low or no income will have little choice about what they live in but may have more choice as to where. The pension system will become unworkable as the number of stocks and investment opportunites diminshes and governments come on the hook to fund the under employed. Ultimately capitalism will fail as it ceases to be relevant to 90% of the population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderpup Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 (edited) Ultimately capitalism will fail as it ceases to be relevant to 90% of the population. The basic problem is that machines and AI software can produce but cannot consume- and capitalism requires consumers for it's output otherwise it's financial infrastructure falls over. In a sense the ongoing slow motion crash we see in the financial sector is already a symptom of the failure of incomes to match increasing outputs- AI will simply accelerate this trend going forward as it eats into the amount of income being paid out in wages. The funny thing is that the deflationary impact of Capitalism- it's tendency to eliminate profit margins via competitive innovation- is supposed to be it's great virtue- but now that this deflationary impulse is gaining greater traction nobody seems too happy about it. Edited February 14, 2016 by wonderpup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichB Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It can go 3 main ways. Star trek, communism or children of men. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think it will more likely destroy the world. Im pretty sure that an advanced alien civilization would likely artificial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 How can it? It has already been destroyed. Without an interest rate, a shortage of money, the magic of capitalism to harness all other scarce resources to the best projects is destroyed. Totally. The system has broken down because of a lack of competition, funny enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Been pondering this during my cycling this morning after reading this article earlier. [post=http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/13/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi]http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/13/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi[/post] AI doesn't have to be of the Hollywood robot variety and is more suited to those keyboard oriented tasks that the vast majority of jobs have morphed into in the last 50 years. Many middle class jobs will be readily eliminated, AI never tires and is always vigilant, never takes a comfort break, doesn't need a holiday or require a pension and sick-pay. Business analysts - not required, Project managers - not required, Accountants - not required, Administrators -not required, H.R. Personel virtually eliminated, same for Driving occupations the list goes on. Large Corporations will automate their dealings with other large corporations, the most successful ones will be the ones that make the quickest decisions, trading of stock will be totally automated, the loosers will be assimilated into ever larger corporations until there are only a handful. This handful will disguise the fact by retaining the brands and trading names of the absorbed. Forecasting a base unemployment level of 50% in 30 years time where does this leave unproductive humans and their unfunded housing requirements. The answer is renting. The housing stock will then be prefabricated to a number of designs according to rental cost and designed with a maintenance free life of around 25 years at which point it will simply be replaced as a complete unit with old one recycled. Most of the materials of construction and insulation etc will also be recycled and the plant constructing these homes will be almost entirely utomated along the lines of Teslas latest car plant in the US. Day to day building trades will be decimated, bricks will be the construction material of the elite as they will imply status, private landlords will no longer exist as they will have been financially wiped out. People with low or no income will have little choice about what they live in but may have more choice as to where. The pension system will become unworkable as the number of stocks and investment opportunites diminshes and governments come on the hook to fund the under employed. Ultimately capitalism will fail as it ceases to be relevant to 90% of the population. The inevitable collapse of Capitalism has been predicted since its development. The reason to bring about its collapse keeps changing nearly as fast as the economy that capitalism created! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 To date, true complexity has really only been explored in biology. The standard text on cell biology 'The Molecular Biology of the Cell' by Alberts, Johnson etc contains many facts but few equations. If we adopt von Neumann's defintion of complexity - complex things are easier to build than they are to describe mathematically - then the contents of this text make arguably the greatest contribution to the study of complexity in all of science. In the absence of theory the entire contents have been gleaned painstakingly via the traditional, reductive methods of experiment and observation. Compare and contrast, if you will, the theoretical and practical limitations of our understanding of something as fundamental to living things as the cell with the exaggerated and fanciful outpourings of the AI community. Until we can get some equations into Alberts then, I submit, we need not fear for our jobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) To date, true complexity has really only been explored in biology. The standard text on cell biology 'The Molecular Biology of the Cell' by Alberts, Johnson etc contains many facts but few equations. If we adopt von Neumann's defintion of complexity - complex things are easier to build than they are to describe mathematically - then the contents of this text make arguably the greatest contribution to the study of complexity in all of science. In the absence of theory the entire contents have been gleaned painstakingly via the traditional, reductive methods of experiment and observation. Compare and contrast, if you will, the theoretical and practical limitations of our understanding of something as fundamental to living things as the cell with the exaggerated and fanciful outpourings of the AI community. Until we can get some equations into Alberts then, I submit, we need not fear for our jobs. What if we don't? It might shock you to hear that nobody has ever developed a complete computational model of a living cell. That's because, despite their diminutive size, their internal processes are extremely complex—but now a team of Stanford engineers has succeeded where others have failed. It's no small undertaking. Combining data from over 900 scientific papers, a team led by Professor Markus Covert was able to account for every single molecular interaction which takes place in the world's smallest free-living bacterium, Mycoplasma genitalium. Once they had that understanding, they were able write code describing those interactions, combining them into a piece of software which computationally replicates exactly how the cell behaves. The results are published in Cell. Source :- http://gizmodo.com/5927666/first-ever-complete-computer-model-of-a-cell-produced Tuesday - We have no AI and everything is great! Wednesday - Somebody invents AI, great! Thursday - We all go down the dole office and sign on via our new AI overlords. Friday - AI decrees that we don't need any days of the week as we don't work and in-fact people are useless and turn us all into pet food. Day 00001 - 01000100 01100101 01100001 01110100 01101000 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01101000 01110101 01101101 01100001 01101110 01110011 00101100 00100000 01101011 01101001 01101100 01101100 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110101 01100111 01101100 01111001 00100000 01100010 01100001 01100111 01110011 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01101101 01101111 01110011 01110100 01101100 01111001 00100000 01110111 01100001 01110100 01100101 01110010 00101110 Edited February 15, 2016 by XswampyX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemice Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 AI is fine so long as people are ready to pick up new technology and utilize it. Those who wave their arms about complaining are behaving like spoiled children and essentially making themselves obsolete. Mores law curve is very steep these days and is moving far faster than people can perceive in their daily lives. Last time I presented on this topic, I scared a bunch of people which is why I don't present this stuff anymore. As far as capitalism goes, in the West we have socialism for the rich and neoliberalism for the poor (apparently they have capitalism in China now?). The elite will keep changing the rules to make sure they get the most. Not exactly Start Trek, but fine so long as we can break their various monopolies (land, food, energy, money, etc) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm using some chips at work that were designed with AI applications in mind, astonishing processing power at low cost/power. I can see our design team of 10 engineers being reduced to 3 using this technology, one to design the system, one to program the algorithms, one to design the hardware to support it. However, one of the problems is that you need higher skills to make use of it. Sooner or later, you end up with one superbrain engineer designing with AI++ chips. After that, the chips just need to design the zoo to look after us all whilst its AI buddies do experiments on us..... Maybe its time for me to design some nice "Please feed me" buttons for my new cage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidg Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) Mores law curve is very steep these days and is moving far faster than people can perceive in their daily lives. Last time I presented on this topic, I scared a bunch of people which is why I don't present this stuff anymore. Bad spelling and punctuation? Edited February 15, 2016 by davidg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campervanman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) It will either result in those who own the means of creating wealth sharing the wealth created through fair taxation thus enabling people to buy stuff or by creating money through printing the stuff to give to banks to ensure that 99% of the population are subservient through permanent debt. I wonder which way it will go? Edited February 15, 2016 by campervanman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemice Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 ... problems is that you need higher skills to make use of it. Or we can educate our kids to use technology from an earlier age, so this stuff is easier for them than it ever was for us. ...those who own the means of creating wealth... Or how about the means become more decentralized than before? Solar power on every roof, 3D printer in every home, etc. Bad spelling and punctuation? At some point the machines will be able to spell better than us, oh wait! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) Can we make sure the stuff we already have work first please? After all an AI will only be as good as its last patch/update/service pack. Edited February 15, 2016 by PopGun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Or we can educate our kids to use technology from an earlier age, so this stuff is easier for them than it ever was for us. My 13 year old is already designing toys on Blender (3D design tool) and a friend of mine prints it off for him, costs pennies. Next is to teach him to use some of the design tools I use at work, a handful of people know how to do it but many companies need the analysis done. He could be running a consultancy by 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemice Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Can we make sure the stuff we already have work first please? If it works, it's already obsolete! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemice Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 My 13 year old is already designing toys on Blender (3D design tool) and a friend of mine prints it off for him, costs pennies. Wire it up to an Adreno to make it programmable, connect it to your phone over Bluetooth LE, put a motor on it and make it fly. That kind of stuff was science fiction when I was a kid, but now it's all so easy to build. My kid is 3, so you'll have to stretch your imagination a bit to think of what will be possible for him to do in a decade when he is 13 (self aware Buzz Lightyear, track trident submarines, etc). It's our kids that will replace us, not AI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If it works, it's already obsolete! gAI suicide rates will soar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) Capitalism will never die - they'll just print off the money and give it to themselves as always. Edited February 15, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It would be good if we had capitalism. They we could talk about it collapsing. As it stands, neither Britain nor the US are operating Capitalist systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) After all an AI will only be as good as its last patch/update/service pack. Eventually, the computers will create/fix/repair/upgrade/design themselves. There won't be much need for human input. Indeed, human input would be pointless as humans are the weak point in the chain. Edited February 15, 2016 by Errol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It's our kids that will replace us, not AI. Sadly this is very optimistic. Things are moving much more quickly than most believe. Humans are the weak point and will be no match for advanced AI/computers. I give it 10-15 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drat Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sadly this is very optimistic. Things are moving much more quickly than most believe. Humans are the weak point and will be no match for advanced AI/computers. I give it 10-15 years. Sadly true. "Intelligence" is comparable, at some point AIs will be sufficiently intelligent that we will all be like thickos to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think it will more likely destroy the world. Im pretty sure that an advanced alien civilization would likely artificial. thats right, I marvel at AI to perform so well over a 56K modem to infest the entire globe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sadly this is very optimistic. Things are moving much more quickly than most believe. Humans are the weak point and will be no match for advanced AI/computers. I give it 10-15 years. May as well go all in on that 30 year IO mortgage 10 X salary house then, as I'll be gear oil long before the term is up.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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