Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
rantnrave

Halifax - House Prices Up 1.7% In Jan

Recommended Posts

Hmm.

Aberdeen and outlying areas are looking to be dropping in the region of a few points every quarter, for the foreseeable future.

That Halifax press release must surely be all about London?

Most places in the UK ain't doing so well on the job front, especially the NE of England and Scotland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
“The imbalance between supply and demand

continues to exert significant upward pressure on

house prices. This situation looks set to persist

over the coming months. Further ahead,

increasing affordability issues, as price increases

continue to exceed wage growth, are likely to curb

housing demand and cause price growth to ease."

Like this is a new thing?

Edited by canbuywontbuy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Aberdeen and outlying areas are looking to be dropping in the region of a few points every quarter, for the foreseeable future.

They might need to throw another half a billion at Aberdeen if prices fall too low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They might need to throw another half a billion at Aberdeen if prices fall too low.

Maybe.

They are building a bypass road around the city that will be in the region of £750 million, if not more!

And folk up here in Scotland thought that the £1 billion Edinburgh tram line debacle was a waste of taxpayers money.

Well...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's all about lending.

Bank of England want at least 4.5x household income, governbankment subsidising some people to buy properties they cannot afford to support prices, the MMR makes a mockery of affordability because the mortgage terms are just being extended until the computer says yes to the initial payment, interest only again as long as a repayment vehicle is in place initially.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think a lot comes down to the prohibitive cost of moving, particularly stamp duty, , stocks at a record low for what is normally a busy time.

I was slated for suggesting that property might increase 7% this year, but I was calling it as i saw it, no stock, 50% sold to stock ratio (a near record) and an obvious cancer of HPI from the home counties now rippling across the North Midlands.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think a lot comes down to the prohobitive cost of moving, particularly stamp duty, , stocks at a record low for what is normally a busy time.

I was slated for suggesting that property might increase 7% this year, but I was calling it as i saw it, no stock, 50% sold to stock ratio (a near record) and an obvious cancer of HPI from the home counties now rippling across the North Midlands.

You're probably close with that prediction. We passed the point a long time ago where a HPC would mean affordable housing. Never going to get there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A low oil prfice and a UK equities crash has poured petrol on the flames.

It perpetuates the myth that houses are the best ''investment''. Low oil means the consumer has money in his pocket.

It did the same after the 1987 and 2003 Equity crashes and low oil price, a wrong policy on interest rates caused the crashes that followed..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any action Carney? or are you going to be the first Governor to leave interest rates unchanged during your term.

Indeed why do we need a Governor we could have a monkey to sign off zirp and pay him peanuts, meanwhile we wouldn't get bogus warnings of interest rate rises that never materialise.

Carney the plonker really gave the green light last month to this overheating situation didn't he.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Halifax P/E ratio now stands at 5.69 and is closing in on the series peak of 5.83 reached in July 2007.

Thanks, this brings some small comfort...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, this brings some small comfort...

Indeed you know it is all going to end badly, in the meantime I expect we will get a series P/E of over 6 before the brakes go on. There is momentum to this. Who'd have thunk it same old mistakes, especially on interest rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed you know it is all going to end badly, in the meantime I expect we will get a series P/E of over 6 before the brakes go on. There is momentum to this. Who'd have thunk it same old mistakes, especially on interest rates.

When you start with the assumption that economies are robust, self-correcting utility computers operating at or near equilibrium you're always going to be making the same mistakes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup its crazy at moment its every bit as bad as 2007

I guess the shock is the fact it has arrived in the provinces, may not have got to the North East and Scotland yet but the pestilence is out of London and spreading like a bush fire northward. Tbh since about 2004 the market has been safe and dead til now out of the Home Counties and South Midlands (well and Cheshire according to the Cheshire/ Mancunian squad)

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw some extraordinary numbers for house prices in London from the blog of Shaun Richards earlier.

Or for Londoners from City-AM

House prices have broached the £500,000 barrier across 51 per cent of London postcode districts, new research has found – backing up evidence the capital’s homes are becoming increasingly unaffordable.

The report, by estate agent Stirling Ackroyd, found even areas such as Peckham, which were traditionally seen as pretty affordable, have now joined the half-a-million club, with average house prices of £503,000.

Meanwhile away from the spotlight there has been another £4.2 billion of Operation Twist style QE this week.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/a-not-so-super-thursday-for-mark-carney-and-the-bank-of-england/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess the shock is the fact it has arrived in the provinces, may not have got to the North East and Scotland yet but the pestilence is out of London and spreading like a bush fire northward. Tbh since about 2004 the market has been safe and dead til now out of the Home Counties and South Midlands (well and Cheshire according to the Cheshire/ Mancunian squad)

I'm based in Luton and the prices rises even in the worse area's are madness.Last year 150k would get you a 2 bed house now your looking at that price for 1bed apartments.

A recent city and towns study showed Luton has low average wage yet we have increasing population and house prices. It's not just Luton though anything on that Thameslink line into London has got through the roof.Like wise with the root throught Stevenage /Hitchin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup its crazy at moment its every bit as bad as 2007

Its much much worse !!! The prices were mad in 2007, I know I was looking at houses then.

Now, the prices are just mental. Proper mental, it's like money has no value, only debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bottom line is that as long as banks are willing to extend credit to people wanting to pay absurd prices for a roof over their head, the madness can continue.

Given how lending against property is pretty much the major driver for private sector credit creation in the UK, the government is going to do everything it can to facilitate the continuation of bank lending. The economy literally depends on the banks loaning massive sums into existence for people to buy property.

And so long as the rises continue, especially against a background of other assets falling (oil) or looking shaky (equities), people are going to be tempted to speculate er, 'invest', in property - fuelling the continuation of the bubble and encouraging the banks to keep loaning.

We need something to pop the bubble but the prospect of unlimited central bank support to underpin the gross misallocation of capital is going to be powerful enough to keep it going for goodness knows how long. Just look at how shale producers in the US have been able to keep pumping their expensive-to-produce oil at a loss, thanks to easy credit backing them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   92 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.