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Bear Goggles

Landlords Could Flood The Market With Half A Million Homes

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Landlords could flood the market with half a MILLION homes




The horror!


So horrible in fact that it requires some serious CAPS LOCK action by the Daily Mail. :lol:


Edit: To be fair, it's a relatively balanced article by the standards of the Mail. It quotes the NLA's spin, but then just reports the tax changes like they are. No superlatives!
Edited by Bear Goggles

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It's a really read. Most of the alarmist talk from the NLA is actually encouraging, eg "They could put 100,000 properties on the market every year" - which would be great.

The only downer is their survey, which finds only 28% of landlords are not thinking of taking on more property. Does that mean 72% are planning to buy more houses?

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Nice to see the DM help spread the panic amongst the BTL crowd, will be good to see them and the DE fan the flames :lol:

Something else I'm hoping to see more coverage of in the DM/E is the BTR revolution, with stories like this one of L&G building 150 new flats in Bristol to rent out http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/150-new-homes-built-Bristol-city-centre-won-t/story-28661489-detail/story.html

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any predictions as to how far this will bring prices down? 500,000 will flood the market with supply. demand is about to go disappear with no landlords buying. looks like a bloodbath. prices in freefall by the summer?

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My concerns in another thread, were somewhat alleviated by Venger and other more experienced posters. I thought if prices fall due to stuff like this, then pent up demand by FTBs with the help of HTB will manage the falls and prevent further decreases.

I suspect on reflection, you might see it seemingly stabilize for like 2 seconds and then it will drop again.

tumblr_le0zo9IfWm1qcig1w.gif

What a time to join the forum!

Edited by Tapori

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It's been covered here before but it's now very late in the day to dodge the 3%. I've seen a notable sudden uptick of BTL homes go on the market, as well as reductions in my area but it's going to be way too late for most of them. With a commodities rout, the great machine of China running out of steam, stock markets collapsed/collapsing, HPI in most major cities at unsustainable levels, disposable incomes at the same level as 2007 yet cost of living far higher, the EU migration nightmare, economies like Greece and Italy teetering on the edge, a rise in the socialist left, the unfathomable dangers of global NIRP etc. 2016 is setting up to be a perfect storm even before you put the BTL changes in place. April 1, it's 8 weeks. Average transaction 6-12 weeks. You gotta ask yourself, do I feel lucky?

yjexv.jpg

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Reading the telegraph thread, a point was made (other than some terrible points) about how many BTL houses in London especially, have multiple occupants; that is one house has 3-5 people renting a room each.

,

Due to pop. density of such properties what implications would a sell of to predominantly FTB families have?

Only answer I can think of to shut the BTL lobby up, is that many FTB families living in rented 1-2 bed flats will now actually have the opportunity to buy a nice house like my parents did back in the 70's. With a garden!

These 1-2 bed flats could now be bought/rented at a cheaper price by the people who were living in the rented rooms in family houses.

Please can someone do my thinking for me? Don't for a second think that i don't want this HPC to happen.

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Reading the telegraph thread, a point was made (other than some terrible points) about how many BTL houses in London especially, have multiple occupants; that is one house has 3-5 people renting a room each.

,

Due to pop. density of such properties what implications would a sell of to predominantly FTB families have?

Only answer I can think of to shut the BTL lobby up, is that many FTB families living in rented 1-2 bed flats will now actually have the opportunity to buy a nice house like my parents did back in the 70's. With a garden!

These 1-2 bed flats could now be bought/rented at a cheaper price by the people who were living in the rented rooms in family houses.

Please can someone do my thinking for me? Don't for a second think that i don't want this HPC to happen.

I doubt those LLs are selling-up, I doubt they pay tax, there's probably no formal tenancy (or if there is it's only with one or two tenants), with such a high occupancy the mortgage may well have been paid off, some are probably are on LR records being in the name of wife no. x, and if it ever gets sold it'll be treated as wife no. x's primary residence to avoid CGT.

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Reading the telegraph thread, a point was made (other than some terrible points) about how many BTL houses in London especially, have multiple occupants; that is one house has 3-5 people renting a room each.

,

Due to pop. density of such properties what implications would a sell of to predominantly FTB families have?

Only answer I can think of to shut the BTL lobby up, is that many FTB families living in rented 1-2 bed flats will now actually have the opportunity to buy a nice house like my parents did back in the 70's. With a garden!

These 1-2 bed flats could now be bought/rented at a cheaper price by the people who were living in the rented rooms in family houses.

Please can someone do my thinking for me? Don't for a second think that i don't want this HPC to happen.

its impossible to say really.

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Ah the Daily Heil...let the panic commence.

Just for laughs, after the crash let the ECB begin a massive QE programme just before a referendum. I'd love them to try and justify leaving then

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My concerns in another thread, were somewhat alleviated by Venger and other more experienced posters. I thought if prices fall due to stuff like this, then pent up demand by FTBs with the help of HTB will manage the falls and prevent further decreases.

I suspect on reflection, you might see it seemingly stabilize for like 2 seconds and then it will drop again.

What a time to join the forum!

For those of us fortunate enough to have experienced the 1990's crash and be on the buying side of it, not the distressed selling side, then pent up demand will not alleviate a full blown crash. It never does. No one wants to catch the falling knife. There will be peaks and troughs on the way down, but the direction is only one way. I bought purely by accident (no genius insight) at the lowest price point and even then was terrified I'd made a huge mistake. It's like watching a particular stock in freefall every day, all the fundamentals are terrible, everyone is telling you you're insane to buy, so at what point do you throw all of your your chips at it? Then amplify that fear by taking out the biggest loan of your life on a house.

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For those of us fortunate enough to have experienced the 1990's crash and be on the buying side of it, not the distressed selling side, then pent up demand will not alleviate a full blown crash. It never does. No one wants to catch the falling knife. There will be peaks and troughs on the way down, but the direction is only one way. I bought purely by accident (no genius insight) at the lowest price point and even then was terrified I'd made a huge mistake. It's like watching a particular stock in freefall every day, all the fundamentals are terrible, everyone is telling you you're insane to buy, so at what point do you throw all of your your chips at it? Then amplify that fear by taking out the biggest loan of your life on a house.

Thats a very good point. I would step in when I felt there was reasonable value and I could afford it. Rather than trying to time the lowest price point if there were a future crash.

Edited by 999house

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Thats a very good point. I would step in when I felt there was reasonable value and I could afford it. Rather than trying to time the lowest price point if there were a future crash.

On the other hand you have a generation of people who've come to independence with house prices out of reach. When they start falling they'll watch them fall. The idea of trying to time a lower price point requires a longer term view predicated on the existence of a price cycle, which not all previously excluded buyers have - certainly their experience has not cultivated this view.

Many buyers will respond to falls by waiting for falls to stop. Hence crashes.

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I noticed this come up today. Sold at auction last summer for £115k. Renovation started, however back for auction again, guided £115k. Maybe a BTLer figuring the sums dont stack up...

Last summer

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=47790430&sale=54201920&country=england

today

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57680615.html

The fens can be odd when it comes to prices. Lots of cheap stuff in relation to the rest of the country, but some stuff sells for a bit more. This looks similar and fetched 140k in the depths of 2009 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=15445868&sale=40644959&country=england

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For those of us fortunate enough to have experienced the 1990's crash and be on the buying side of it, not the distressed selling side, then pent up demand will not alleviate a full blown crash. It never does. No one wants to catch the falling knife. There will be peaks and troughs on the way down, but the direction is only one way. I bought purely by accident (no genius insight) at the lowest price point and even then was terrified I'd made a huge mistake. It's like watching a particular stock in freefall every day, all the fundamentals are terrible, everyone is telling you you're insane to buy, so at what point do you throw all of your your chips at it? Then amplify that fear by taking out the biggest loan of your life on a house.

Housing is priced at the margin. I guess how beneficial the crash will be to people depends on its duration as much as its depth. In the 1990s, prices went from £64k to £50k quickly and stayed there for 5 years, so many saved themselves a fair bit. I guess like prices going from £190k to £150k today...although wages/purchasing power rose from 1989 to 1995. That hasnt happened since 2008, so really prices should fall far further.

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A few anecdotals re. landlords selling. A friend of mine is selling a house near Sheffield - 'accidental' LL (couple who both had their own place previously). £80k, £450 pcm rent. Has had major problems with some tenants in the past. Professes to be generally quite left-wing and probably feels guilt too. Sheepish about my constant anti-landlord bombardment on Facebook.

Another friend, similar situation, in Gateshead, told me she was planning to sell.

Having my haircut in the West End, very upmarket place (one of my only concessions to luxury). Lots of bankers, fund managers etc. seem to go there. Chap having his hair cut was talking about the insanity of price rises in London, but concluded by asserting that they will certainly fall. Barber seemed taken aback.

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I bought in 1992, I missed the crash by pure luck, finished university 1989. Nobody seemed to be in a big rush to buy. Prices drifted downwards until 1996. People like to buy when they see prices going up. And 1989 is chicken feed compared to what is coming. BTL is going to get totally screwed over and I can't wait to see it happen. There no way they escape this, it's too late.

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A few anecdotals re. landlords selling. A friend of mine is selling a house near Sheffield - 'accidental' LL (couple who both had their own place previously). £80k, £450 pcm rent. Has had major problems with some tenants in the past. Professes to be generally quite left-wing and probably feels guilt too. Sheepish about my constant anti-landlord bombardment on Facebook.

Another friend, similar situation, in Gateshead, told me she was planning to sell.

Having my haircut in the West End, very upmarket place (one of my only concessions to luxury). Lots of bankers, fund managers etc. seem to go there. Chap having his hair cut was talking about the insanity of price rises in London, but concluded by asserting that they will certainly fall. Barber seemed taken aback.

Sorry couldn't help it :D , but if you listen it's rather apt in parts:

Agreed, and I'm hearing things similar from people especially those that saw the previous 92 crash. They know maan.

Edited by Tapori

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I bought in 1992, I missed the crash by pure luck, finished university 1989. Nobody seemed to be in a big rush to buy. Prices drifted downwards until 1996. People like to buy when they see prices going up. And 1989 is chicken feed compared to what is coming. BTL is going to get totally screwed over and I can't wait to see it happen. There no way they escape this, it's too late.

Could you 92 or 89 witnesses, school us young'uns on possibly a separate thread, about what it was like and how different or similar or relevent such things were/are? I know past performance shouldn't indicate future performance but people today esp. in London think I'm smoking crack when I say London prices fall. They are like "What? Nah, this is blingy bling shiny London. They'll at worst just stagnate but NEVER drop."

Oh and to you guys, were people as obsessed with the property porn a la Kirst/phil/Beeny have been and what effect does that have on a nations psyche?

Edited by Tapori

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skip to 12:39 (NSFW NSFW!)

The whole program is interesting, but just watch the brief part I've pointed to to sum up how many view this whole house thing. Brooker the presenter also wrote the prophetic Black mirror episode which sort of alluded to David Cameron's love of certain animals.

Edited by Tapori

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