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No Crash Yet

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Looking at the posts on this site, in particular the anecdotals an observer would think that a crash is well underway. However this is not something that I am witnessing. Sure the market is slow and sellers can no longer be wildly optimistic in their pricing yet houses are still selling and not at great discounts.

New build "luxuary apartments" however are another matter and I have seen many examples of 20K cuts this year alone along with bucket loads of other "incentives".

I want to keep this brief so won't go into details - 5 friends recently sold 3 bed houses good locations:

1.Thames Ditton - asking price recieved

2.Guildford - 5% below asking

3.Henleaze (Bristol) - asking price recieved

4.Farnham - asking price recieved

5.Teddington - just under asking

others have bought recently - most have got cash off but not more than 10% - another lost out on a property that went to bids (westbury -on-trym - Bristol).

It may make sense to keep a record of areas for these anecdotals to see how the story is very different accross the country. And for the record so far looks like TTRTR has been right (despite the abuse he gets) in that interest rates are not going up but look set to be reduced.

So 2006 a slow market - no big gains - but unless rates rise and squeeze the over-indebted there will be no instant crash but a slow downward projectory .... as the price of commodities begins to bite late 2006 and 2007 may be a very different kettle of fish .....

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These sound like OO's. There is no comparison to the FTB's market.

My Bro has sold his terradce for £162K when he paid £48K 8 years ago. Thats a bloody good profit margin.

The house he is buying is asking £200K the ceiling was £185K in July this year. He offered the £185K as I advised and the EA said he wont accept that but would accept £190K.

I think tis is an EA trick but his reply was. "My mortgage will only be about £65K so Im OK paying £190K.

Now a to a FTB £5K is a lot. When the FTB's are offering 70% of asking for the first rung the OO's will then be demanding a discount from the next step up. You examples are both small and not a good indication of market conditions. You dont say whether they were prices correctly or have already seen a big discount?

You have an opinion based on a small amount of data. It's pretty worthless. But thanks for letting us know.

TB

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You examples are both small and not a good indication of market conditions. You dont say whether they were prices correctly or have already seen a big discount?

You have an opinion based on a small amount of data. It's pretty worthless. But thanks for letting us know.

TB

No the properties were not based on big discounts - and what does priced correctly mean? They were priced according to what the market could bear ie stupidly overpriced IMHO yet they had no problem selling.

All anecdotals are based on small samples and basically meaninless yet some are lapped up and applauded - others derided depending on whether they say what you want to hear ....

Sign of the times - 5 "friends" all recently sold 3 bed houses ?

surely you mean clients ?

Typical HPC response to anyone that posts anything contradictory - no I am not an Estate Agent - not do I have a vested interest. Just reporting what I see rather than what I would like to see ..

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Reasonably priced properties seem to be selling fairly quickly but nationally, all of the indicies are down to approx. zero YOY growth at best and seem to have gone negative in several areas.

IMO the crash has just started, once the BTLs realise there aren't going to be any more big gains then 5% gross yields no longer make sense . Expect a flood of former BTL on the market next year with wider panic starting late 2006 as OOs see themselves heading towards negative equity.

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There are 2 sides to every coin. You only give examples of all achieving or nearly achieving asking price. The only thing that ALL the indices seem to agree on is that the average price paid to asking price is ow 93%.

Yet your example shows a worst of -5%.

Now lets presume that these are houses in a good area?

FACT: Good housing ALWAYS SELLS

Lets presume its a bad area?

The people buying are either not from that area or they are buying the property coz thats alls they can afford.

The point I am making is that you data maybe correct ( I do not doubt that) but there are reasons why they are achieving the prices. For everyone you quote there are others that are either doing better or worse.

I think you are talking about niceish areas and the area has sold the house. Also the majority of the population are thick and would pay anything. No balls in some of these buyers. Their business skills are probably very poor.

I DO APPRECIATE YOUR POST THO. I like constructive discussions :)

TB

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One relative and one friend have recently sold there houses.

My dad has sold my grans house in boston sparafter 18 mounths, it was a small terrace house near the town centre. They were asking 270k in easter 2004, its sold for 230k last mounth..

a friend (with the help of her dad) had done up a house and quickly flipped it in droitwich, worcestershire. She bought it as an investment in winter 2004, she put it on the market about 5 weeks ago and it sold in a couple of a weeks. She is using the small profit as a deposit on a 100k flat.

I now know of noone with a house on the market.

Edited by moosetea

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There is a huge difference between those already high up the pyramid, essentially bartering houses between them, with the added effect of lots of equity and blissful unawareness of what is really happening, and the new buyer who is abundantly aware of the crazy prices which he can ill afford.

So you have to look down the lower end to see the real dynamics of price changes, and before long these have to filter through to the whole market.

So if bullish people decide to sell their pile to another bullish person, and that person sells on to yet another, they are untouched by what is going on at lower levels.

It'll all feed through in the end.

VP

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Also the majority of the population are thick and would pay anything.

TB

I would probably have got bored with this site a long time ago if I didn't think I could keep coming back and reading comments like that. Does this website give out awards for quote of the year?

In the interests of keeping things objective would anyone like to try and justify that comment?

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I would probably have got bored with this site a long time ago if I didn't think I could keep coming back and reading comments like that. Does this website give out awards for quote of the year?

In the interests of keeping things objective would anyone like to try and justify that comment?

I wouldn't go so far, but I've heard numerous (and otherwise intelligent people) come out with such crackers as "property always goes up", "you have to get in before it's too late" and, my personal favourite, "you're a failure if you haven't bought a house before you're thirty".

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Looking at the posts on this site, in particular the anecdotals an observer would think that a crash is well underway. However this is not something that I am witnessing. Sure the market is slow and sellers can no longer be wildly optimistic in their pricing yet houses are still selling and not at great discounts.

New build "luxuary apartments" however are another matter and I have seen many examples of 20K cuts this year alone along with bucket loads of other "incentives".

I want to keep this brief so won't go into details - 5 friends recently sold 3 bed houses good locations:

1.Thames Ditton - asking price recieved

2.Guildford - 5% below asking

3.Henleaze (Bristol) - asking price recieved

4.Farnham - asking price recieved

5.Teddington - just under asking

others have bought recently - most have got cash off but not more than 10% - another lost out on a property that went to bids (westbury -on-trym - Bristol).

It may make sense to keep a record of areas for these anecdotals to see how the story is very different accross the country. And for the record so far looks like TTRTR has been right (despite the abuse he gets) in that interest rates are not going up but look set to be reduced.

So 2006 a slow market - no big gains - but unless rates rise and squeeze the over-indebted there will be no instant crash but a slow downward projectory .... as the price of commodities begins to bite late 2006 and 2007 may be a very different kettle of fish .....

One rule follows house prices.

you set a price that you would like for your house and then wait and see if you can find a buyer prepared to pay it.

No law sets the prices. all the seller needs is a buyer

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Now lets presume that these are houses in a good area?

FACT: Good housing ALWAYS SELLS

Lets presume its a bad area?

The people buying are either not from that area or they are buying the property coz thats alls they can afford.

TB

I have friends in this situation, major price drops have not hit across the board.

but they vought durring the boom, essentially two years ago just before peak.

It is terrraced to the back a two bed modern build, semi detached.

but it has no garden and the road goes round all three sides.

during the boom it was worth the same as any two bed.

Now the market has been flooded more and a buyer has more choice this property is not selling.

why not get one with a garden?

this is the sort of property that will drop first.

Bless them, and I hate to say it but I raised my concerns when the bought it.. Which went down badly..

Damn..

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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