Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

cashinmattress

333,000 Layoffs In The Next Twelve Months In It In 2016

Recommended Posts

What do you IT types think of this:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/01/22/emc-vmware-ibm-etc-here-come-333000-layoffs-in-tech-opines-global-equities/

Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry, a one-man shop of investment observations, today opines that layoffs in the mainstream of tech companies are primed to become much worse than expected: He predicts there will be at least 333,000 layoffs in the next twelve months, in part because of developments such as cloud computing.

Chowdhry takes as his cue an article this morning by Barb Darrow over at Fortune, which claims VMware (VMW) is going to lay off 900 people, or 5% of its workforce, as part of its buyout by Dell along with VMware majority holder EMC (EMC).

Darrow cites multiple unnamed sources regarding the layoffs.

That’s nothing, says Chowdhry, asserting “the above news item is very likely accurate … but over the 2016, we could see more layoffs.”

Chowdhry’s philosophical justification for such a dour view is in large part that the shift to cloud computing eliminates a lot of IT talent that has been classically devoted to “back-end” operations of IT.

He opines that 70% of the work done in IT is for such back-end things, versus the 30% that is focused on, presumably, more rewarding “domain-specific” tasks.

Chowdhry thinks now with the cloud, because infrastructure is outsourced to Amazon.com (AMZN) and other Web services, the equation flips, and the talent that’s in demand will be domain-are experts, while traditional back-end IT staff goes away.

Everything is cloud computing and very centralised now, so how much stake is there in this type of forecast?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was hearing similar from somebody working for Oracle. It's evolve or die for these companies and Oracle is certainly trying to evolve.

Oracle made me redundant in 2010.

They never employed me, but inherited me when they bought Sun. My team at Sun definitely duplicated a function Oracle already had.

Pay was good and they treated me very well (much better than any UK employer I've had), but I wasn't entirely sorry to go. Oracle isn't a company I'd've naturally chosen to work for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle made me redundant in 2010.

They never employed me, but inherited me when they bought Sun. My team at Sun definitely duplicated a function Oracle already had.

Pay was good and they treated me very well (much better than any UK employer I've had), but I wasn't entirely sorry to go. Oracle isn't a company I'd've naturally chosen to work for.

You have to play the game a bit and there's lots of unfairness internally but they're not total idiots; the leadership steers the company in the right direction.

I have worked for the Council; I know total idiots when I'm working for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think this is going to surprise many people, although the figure of 330,000 sounds high. Cloud computing has been on the rise for several years. It's likely to reduce the number of in-house jobs where people spend all day looking after their employer's server racks, but there's likely to be a corresponding increase in jobs at the cloud hosting companies, which won't all be off-shore. Application developers and designers will need to learn how to make their applications run on the cloud, but they are likely to keep their jobs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the elimination of paper invoices entirely, for all businesses, and digital tax accounts that automate reconcilliation is one of the biggest threats to jobs presently. Not just for office staff but because of how near it takes things to total office function automation.

The knock on to the postal service, book-keepers, office supplies industry etc. is potentially huge.

One thing that might encourage governments to prioritise delivering digital tax accounts is their real time nature could potentially bring forward two years' tax receipts. The knock on effects can't be underestimated though. I suspect many businesses have no idea how much they're really making until the end of the year but with real time information many may earn up to the higher tax bracket then simply stop working.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect many businesses have no idea how much they're really making until the end of the year but with real time information many may earn up to the higher tax bracket then simply stop working.

Ahh. The fine art of real time accounting, ie: accruals.

A concept that eludes many a bean counter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What do you IT types think of this:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/01/22/emc-vmware-ibm-etc-here-come-333000-layoffs-in-tech-opines-global-equities/

Everything is cloud computing and very centralised now, so how much stake is there in this type of forecast?

333K in Europe? The US? The world?

333K is fckall on a worldwide basis.

Why would Devs be affected by cloud computing FFS?

Cloudy stuff invovles re-working your current services to work on cloudy platforms.

That will require *more* developers not less.

It'll reduce demand for IT admins - 80% of the left are MS/Windows centric and there is not a hope in hell on Windows lasting in the cloud.

Business wise - all corp stuff will be behind a browser.

Corp data is evolving toe HTML framework sat atop of a DB.

But thats been obvious for ages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have to play the game a bit and there's lots of unfairness internally but they're not total idiots; the leadership steers the company in the right direction.

I have worked for the Council; I know total idiots when I'm working for them.

Didn't say they were idiots. Not at all. Just not the place for someone whose natural environment is Open Source.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

333K in Europe? The US? The world?

333K is fckall on a worldwide basis.

It's not if the a big component of that is competing for the same job you are, especially as IT expertise is not restricted to Silicon Valley, USA, UK, or even the West.

Would that not be putting a downward trend on wages?

It certainly is in the oil and gas community currently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not if the a big component of that is competing for the same job you are, especially as IT expertise is not restricted to Silicon Valley, USA, UK, or even the West.

Would that not be putting a downward trend on wages?

It certainly is in the oil and gas community currently.

But you have to offset it against the number of people being hired. If 333,000 are laid off but 500,000 new positions are filled then the net effect is the opposite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But you have to offset it against the number of people being hired. If 333,000 are laid off but 500,000 new positions are filled then the net effect is the opposite.

Yeah I agree there, purely on the numberical aspect.

I will defer to any IT boffins or course, but is the jist of the article not the demise of positions at server side due to the centralised nature of cloud computing? Ie, where are all the tech's working server side going to ply their skills... which will quickly become obsolete?

Surely not all those people are coming to the client side and taking dev/designer roles, at least without some heavy retraining. And is the front end not already loaded up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I agree there, purely on the numberical aspect.

I will defer to any IT boffins or course, but is the jist of the article not the demise of positions at server side due to the centralised nature of cloud computing? Ie, where are all the tech's working server side going to ply their skills... which will quickly become obsolete?

Surely not all those people are coming to the client side and taking dev/designer roles, at least without some heavy retraining. And is the front end not already loaded up?

The secular trend is that IT is becoming more important, not less, to all industries. Even taxi services will be competing based on software platforms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not if the a big component of that is competing for the same job you are, especially as IT expertise is not restricted to Silicon Valley, USA, UK, or even the West.

Would that not be putting a downward trend on wages?

It certainly is in the oil and gas community currently.

IT is a pointless term - covers someone developing software to the BO monkey replacing printer ink.

IT admin - Hello, my computer will not print' Is dead or almost dead. Good.

Development will never die - requirement changes, hardware packs in, compnaies go out of business.

Software is too central to modern orgs now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I agree there, purely on the numberical aspect.

I will defer to any IT boffins or course, but is the jist of the article not the demise of positions at server side due to the centralised nature of cloud computing? Ie, where are all the tech's working server side going to ply their skills... which will quickly become obsolete?

Surely not all those people are coming to the client side and taking dev/designer roles, at least without some heavy retraining. And is the front end not already loaded up?

IT boffin is a laughable term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I agree there, purely on the numberical aspect.

I will defer to any IT boffins or course, but is the jist of the article not the demise of positions at server side due to the centralised nature of cloud computing? Ie, where are all the tech's working server side going to ply their skills... which will quickly become obsolete?

Surely not all those people are coming to the client side and taking dev/designer roles, at least without some heavy retraining. And is the front end not already loaded up?

I don't understand the point you are trying to make. I don't you do, either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think?

Yeah, I'm not up to snuff on IT and it shows I guess. Fair doos.

My job is mathematics, engineering, research, project management/execution, and people management.

I just use software from time to time in order make my life easier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think?

Yeah, I'm not up to snuff on IT and it shows I guess. Fair doos.

My job is mathematics, engineering, research, project management/execution, and people management.

I just use software from time to time in order make my life easier.

You haven't used mine then? :wacko:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't even think my new job is safe. :blink: I shall treat is as NOT. :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IT is a pointless term - covers someone developing software to the BO monkey replacing printer ink.

IT admin - Hello, my computer will not print' Is dead or almost dead. Good.

Development will never die - requirement changes, hardware packs in, compnaies go out of business.

Software is too central to modern orgs now.

I agree that "the cloud" will mostly affect IT administration types (something I used to do as a Unix sysadmin). But I think the argument for less developers is that companies and individuals will us Software as a service (SaaS)packages, rather than having in house bespoke code (obviously some has to write the SaaS).

All makes a joke of the "skills shortages" we hear about in the media, which usually came from a report funded by Accenture, Wipro, TCS, IBM etc. etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure all the predictions are right. I think Cloud is great for the IT business, and will just make IT and IT costs bigger over time,

Firstly we still have mainframes (they never went away), and client server apps are still omnipresent and still being deployed. Cloud has added another category, but actually cloud is a poor commercial model for always on services and services needing high availability; consequently there are more hybrid deployments for critical service than pure cloud deployments.

The thing cloud will do it give Cloud Service and Support companies the ability to really screw customers if a critical service or data set is lost. Seriously, if something goes wrong in you set up in the Azure or Amazon Datacenters and you really can't get things back up, then you are going to need to pay Red Adair style rates (for those that don't know he is the Texan famous for being able to put out oil well head fires).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that "the cloud" will mostly affect IT administration types (something I used to do as a Unix sysadmin). But I think the argument for less developers is that companies and individuals will us Software as a service (SaaS)packages, rather than having in house bespoke code (obviously some has to write the SaaS).

All makes a joke of the "skills shortages" we hear about in the media, which usually came from a report funded by Accenture, Wipro, TCS, IBM etc. etc.

There is a great myth sold to management types these last few years that they can buy one bit of software that is endlessly configurable, and that can do away with the need for software developers because it's all things to all people. In other words that they have 'abstracted' the problem at a high level and written one bit of software that solves it for every scenario.

This can be true for small problems, but for the bigger ones, it ends up costing the company as much if not more, and just makes the consultants rich. And then you need to constantly configure/update it with business changes, which requires programmers anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yo Joe! We would employ you! There's an amount of common sense missing in the software world, and too much snake oil. :blink: I'm not sure any job is "safe". I feel I have been lucky in finding something local.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yo Joe! We would employ you! There's an amount of common sense missing in the software world, and too much snake oil. :blink: I'm not sure any job is "safe". I feel I have been lucky in finding something local.

Your roots are firm. You always knew something would turnip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   26 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.