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freddiego

House Prices For 2006- Rising Or Falling?

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I was wondering what the year 2006 will have in store for house prices. Could anyone give me any statistics, articles or links about what they believe will happen to house prices in the year of 2006?

I have already researched the topic myself, and after looking on www.housepricecrash.co.uk I believe house prices will fall. However, I beleive that topic to be quite a one sided opinion, due to the fact of the name of the web site. Could anyone give me any other details about predicted house prices?

Thank you so much,

Fred

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JF: I think you are all getting this the wrong way around. What do you think caused the recession of the early 1990s? Do you know that unemployment was at a decade-low at the top of the last housing bubble? Unemployment is always low before a crash. House prices go down first, not last. And before housing goes down, what happens? Liquidity plummets. The first sign of a housing crash is a year of transactions diving. Like this one, for instance. Mortgage approvals are down 40% year on year, and houses that were on the market for £800,000 last year now won’t sell for £700,000. You haven’t seen that fall in the statistics yet, because that house at £700,000 is still not in the data. And it won’t be until it sells. Then it will be clear that prices are falling and everything else will follow. Every time housing collapses, within 12 months unemployment goes up by at least 40%. Why? Because suddenly we have fewer house purchases, which means fewer white good sales. Not only that, but any money from mortgage equity withdrawal used to finance consumption disappears completely. All these supports to the economy go

:D

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I was wondering what the year 2006 will have in store for house prices. Could anyone give me any statistics, articles or links about what they believe will happen to house prices in the year of 2006?

I have already researched the topic myself, and after looking on www.housepricecrash.co.uk I believe house prices will fall. However, I beleive that topic to be quite a one sided opinion, due to the fact of the name of the web site. Could anyone give me any other details about predicted house prices?

Thank you so much,

Fred

I would call plus 3%,but could be any where between zero and plus six, depending on what happens to interest rates.Its a guessing game.

Some areas will fall though, of that there is no doubt so research your own area well,and dont buy a newbuild.

Thats assuming you want to buy of course :lol:

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Could anyone give me any other details about predicted house prices?

Thank you so much,

Fred

Nostradamus: Predictions for the Past, Present and Future of house prices.

Is it possible to see into the future of property?

Many believe that a man named Michel de Nostradamus could.

His predictions of the future of house prices have mystified scholars

for over four hundred years. Nostradamus made over one thousand predictions

and historians say that over half of them have already come true.

The most startling of his predictions deal with the coming of NuLabour’s three anti-Christs (Guentte).

Beginning in 1532, Nostradamus enjoyed three years of happiness.

During this time he got married and had children and bought a house,

but the terrible plague that Nostradamus himself had helped to fight returned

killing his wife and children (Time Life 17). Deeply depressed, Nostradamus

spent the next six years renting around France and Italy. This is when he began

to notice and take account of his strange prophetic gifts (Time Life 17).

While wandering through Italy, Nostradamus encountered a group of Estate agents.

Standing aside to let them pass Nostradamus suddenly exclaimed and threw

himself on his knees, bowing his head and clutching at the garment of one of the EA‘s.

The agent, named Felice Peretti, was a former swine herder of very lowly birth.

(as all Estate agents are!)

When asked why he had done such a silly act, Nostradamus replied,

"I must yield myself and bow before his Holiness." Nineteen years after the death

of Nostradamus, Peretti became Pope Sixtus V (Randi 25).

Many such stories arose as testimony to Nostradamus' alleged second sight.

In one account, the visionary was challenged by a Surveyor, the Seigneur de

Florinville, while staying at his chateau in the province of Lorraine (Time Life 17).

Nostradamus was shown two Properties, one BTL, the other Owner-occupier.

Florinville then asked Nostradamus to predict which would survive the coming

property crash? . Nostradamus replied he would not touch the BTL with a barge-pole.

Florinville then told the Estate agent that he was interested in the owner-occupier

house for sale.

That evening at dinner, Nostradamus was again asked which house would be best for

purchase, and again he replied the BTL was only for tossers. Florinville triumphantly

asked the crooked Estate agent to tell which house was suffering worse in today’s

market. The Estate agent said that he hadn’t had any offers on the BTL but Indeed

the owner-occupier had sold because they had dropped the price. (Randi 26).

In 1547, Nostradamus finally settled in a small flat in the small town of Salon.

There he remarried and began to compose prophecies, graphs, and pie-charts on his

accumulated knowledge and books on property and magic (Time Life 18).

In 1555, Nostradamus published the first of ten books, all entitled

Centuries and how not to get screwed by EA‘s.

Each volume contained 100 predictions written in four line verses known as quatrains.

He wrote in his native French but to protect himself from the superstitious vested

interests of the day, he confused the verse with Latin, Greek, and even graphs

(Guentte). The following predictions and interpretations are based on the English

translation of Nostradamus' prophecies.

Throughout Nostradamus' quatrains he speaks of three powerful and

tyrannical leaders that he calls anti-Christ .

He said they would lead their people through reigns of terror after

first seducing them with promises of greatness and forever low interest rates.

(Guentte).

NuLabour is thought to have been one of these anti-Christs.

Of NuLabour's rise to power and years as Government.

Nostradamus wrote:

An MP shall be born near Edinburgh.

Who shall cost the Empire dear,

They shall say, with what people he keeps company

He shall be found less a Prince than a butcher.

Tony Blair, who was considered a butcher even by his supporters, certainly cost the

Empire dearly in both manpower and political

strength (Roberts 29).

From a simple Solicitor he will rise to the empire,

From the short robe he will attain the long.

Great swarms of BTL’s shall arise.

After becoming Prime Minister, Tony Blair adopted low interest rates as his imperial crest (Ward 297).

Some scholars say that Nostradamus was referring to

Blair's destruction of affordable housing when he wrote:

A great HPI shall come through.

The destroyer shall ruin a city.

Link

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Tell me when the banks will wake up to risk, and start tightening,

and I will tell you when the sharp slide begins

Er, thats about now then huh? :)

BTW, an inspired topic freddiego, whod've thought it on a site like this.. :D

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I was wondering what the year 2006 will have in store for house prices. Could anyone give me any statistics

Statistics are a record of what has already happened. How could you (or I) have statistics about the future??

articles or links about what they believe will happen to house prices in the year of 2006?

I have already researched the topic myself

If you "have already researched the topic" yourself you will know that the RICS, Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove, etc have all already published or are about to publish their house price predictions for next year.

after looking on www.housepricecrash.co.uk I believe house prices will fall. However, I beleive that topic to be quite a one sided opinion

You will find the propaganda from the vested interests quite one-sided as well.

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Nostradamus: Predictions for the Past, Present and Future of house prices.

Is it possible to see into the future of property?

Nostradamus made over one thousand predictions

and historians say that over half of them have already come true.

Link

I predict house prices will fall.

So - 50% chance of me being right (stagnation is not an option) - that puts me in Nostradamus territory with only one prediction.

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2006 - year of FED chairman changeover - apparently this is usually pretty rocky. Why? Maybe because the incumbent keeps all the plates spinning and gets out whilst the going is good and has maybe invariably run policies that are unsutainable and more tailored to short-term reputation keeping than long term stability.

In the UK tuition fees will be introduced - will there be some fallout in the BTL sector from this? Students will have to rack up more debt, spend less on living out, live in and go local or not go at all. Fallout will start with the bottom rung of the sector in places that have seen some of the highest HPI's through no apparent reason whatsoever.

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In the UK tuition fees will be introduced - will there be some fallout in the BTL sector from this? Students will have to rack up more debt, spend less on living out, live in and go local or not go at all. Fallout will start with the bottom rung of the sector in places that have seen some of the highest HPI's through no apparent reason whatsoever.

Well I think we won't see the effects of that for a few years because IIRC the fees work in a funny way in that the student loan is increased to cover the fees so you don't actaully pay them until you leave. It's some NuLabour fudge like that, whatever it is it's been designed so that stoodents don't suddenly have to find an extra could of £k from nowhere.

BTW students must get into serious debt, when I was a grant-funded student hardly any had cars and if they did they were beat-up old novas or something, nowadays it far more students seem to have cars and some of them are newer than mine.

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given the news on look east today(mk down 7%).....it looks like things are going down a fair bit quicker than halifax were predicting!!!

down another 15% next year there I think.....mk is FULL of BTL!!!

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mustrum_ridcully,

Agree, it is all back end loaded, but many youngsters will have noticed the inceased cost and incresaingly the innefectiveness of a many degreee qualifications offering anything like a payback for the time, money and effort involved. Degrees are rapidly becoming overpriced and devalued at the same time.

The application stats suggest that it is already happening, establishments will continue to look for ways to increase income and with both fallilng foreign applications (oh no not another sector that is becoming overpriced and uncompetitive) and falling internal candidates the obvious choice is to make the money off accommodation blocks - of course all the accommodation shoudl have been put in place BEFORE trying to increase student numbers to provide additional funding and prevent absurd knock on effects in the availability of accommodation for local populations.

Well it is done now, another sector that has been overblown, grown in totally the wrong way (increasing numbers ratehr than quality) and destined for contraction.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffairs...1667753,00.html

Vice-chancellors bemoan drop in foreign students

Matthew Taylor, education correspondent

Thursday December 15, 2005

The Guardian

Universities face a financial crisis and possible job cuts after a decline in the number of foreign students studying in the UK, leading academics said last night.

A survey of vice-chancellors revealed that four out of five universities have seen a drop in the number of overseas students - and their fees - in the past 12 months, and more than half admit this will have serious financial consequences.

A report in today's Times Higher Education Supplement claims leaked figures show a 5% fall in overall applications, with many students from England and Wales put off by the £3,000 tuition fee.

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Thanks for the help, every help is much appreciated.

I think i have enough to begin writing my newspaoer article, thanks loads. Any other help will be amazing.

Thank you so much,

you are all brilliant

Fred.

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I have just done a 'prediction curve' extending the graph from the Nationwide, which we have on the front page of the website.

Using 3.75 as the long-term average earnings multiple, (draw a line across the graph at this level) generally the area of each historic peak above the line is followed by a trough of (very approximately) the same area below the line on the graph. This follows for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

If we accept (which I think most people do on here) that we have reached the peak of prices in relation to earnings and that the slide gradient will be along the same slope profile of previous peak/troughs then prices should start sliding properly around Q3 to Q4 this year (2006) This slide will continue until around Q4 2009 at which point prices will be around 2.25 multiple of average earnings. Prices will then round out at a minimum of 2.00 times average earnings.

if you earn £40k and your house now is 'valued at' 220k then following this projection, in Q4 2009 (if you are now paid £45k with pay rises) then the property could only be worth £101k.

Based on this reasoning, the predicted UK recession will kick in roughly around the same time, possibly mid 2007 onwards for up to 3 years.

This is simple extrapolation of current graphical data, using past data to try to predict what MAY happen this year. Any comments or corrections would be appreciated. :ph34r:

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As Markov stated in the 1800's, the future is dependent on the present, not the past.

Are we going to see increases? No Chance!

Falls? Yes!

How big? Not a clue!!!!

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What goes up, must come down - but seeing as his premiership depends on it, you can bet that Gordy will keep it up as long as he can. And he can keep things rolling this year, I expect a rise of about 2% overall, with -5% for inner city flats. There will be an utterly irresponsible IR cut before summer. 2007 is the year to watch IMO.

Of course, everything could go tits-up a lot sooner if Osama gets back in the ring, Iran asks the US out, couple of big gulf hurricanes, China starts rattling sabres at Taiwan again, etc etc....I wouldn't gamble on world economic stability at the moment.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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