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TheCountOfNowhere

20,000 Posts....here's What I Have Seen

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Always said I'd retire at 20,000 posts.

Though I've eased off lately.

After been wrong for so many years, what more is there to say?

Wonder how Realistbear is doing these days

Edited by RentierParadisio

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Always said I'd retire at 20,000 posts.

Though I've eased off lately.

After been wrong for so many years, what more is there to say?

Wonder how Realistbear is doing these days

You haven't been wrong. You just had a reasonable faith that we're in a Capitalist system - those who believe hpi will keep going generally don't realise they've abandoned it (while harping on about 'supply and demand' lol!)

Plenty left to say. Wherefore next for politics ? Lots on here haven't accepted the right-wing failed (and I mean in principle not just individuals) - was always going to. Conversely plenty on the left think hating Fatcher is having a clue.

Time is running out - it'll be Corbyn vs UKIP next god help us.

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I really enjoy the intelligent debate on here, a focus on facts and very little emotion just trying to get to the truth, there is the occasional headcase but this is the internet.

The reason I post on here is that in 2000 years time when the human race is long gone and super intelligent monkeys have taken over this forum will be dug up by monkey archaeologists and they will see not all humans were stupid selfish idiots. There might even be a display in the monkey history museum with mockups of what they thought we looked like.

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I was a lurker from around the time you joined count. Then I took the plunge and started posting. It's great to have a community which has similar views because the MSM is trying to brainwash us in the opposite direction. We are not mad and I've been around long enough to have experienced the housing "market" since the 70s so I've seen it all. I would hazard a guess that many others on here are a good deal younger than me and every so often someone gets downhearted which is when the community comes into its own with support. That is its strength and we are stronger because of it.

Some on here are hilarious too so worth reading for that alone. :)

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I really enjoy the intelligent debate on here, a focus on facts and very little emotion just trying to get to the truth, there is the occasional headcase but this is the internet.

The reason I post on here is that in 2000 years time when the human race is long gone and super intelligent monkeys have taken over this forum will be dug up by monkey archaeologists and they will see not all humans were stupid selfish idiots. There might even be a display in the monkey history museum with mockups of what they thought we looked like.

:lol:

I feel kind of sad that I won't be around to witness this.

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I really enjoy the intelligent debate on here, a focus on facts and very little emotion just trying to get to the truth, there is the occasional headcase but this is the internet.

The reason I post on here is that in 2000 years time when the human race is long gone and super intelligent monkeys have taken over this forum will be dug up by monkey archaeologists and they will see not all humans were stupid selfish idiots. There might even be a display in the monkey history museum with mockups of what they thought we looked like.

The'll look at our avatars and usernames; and the mockups will look like big animals with brown fur.

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Great reading your posts. I have been reading HPC since 2011 and watched with similar shock and anger since then.

I almost felt like giving up end of 2013 and through 2014, as all the hard fought price drops were reversed due to HTB and other props.

I packed in my job and moved away from friends and the 3 or 4 years of invested time in building a life for myself after uni. And moved 600 miles away to live with my parents as renting + saving was just not cutting the mustard against price rises even with my bitcoin gains.

I was lucky to land on my feet and find a nice Cornish girl, a slight raise and a good progression on my career although it took 3-4 months to get set-up again (fortune favours the brave)

Summer 2015 looked very much like the white hot peak of a bubble in both housing and stocks. and hope started to turn once moving averages were broken and London has reached a stage of obvious bubble.

2016 has really been giving us the goods, my mood is much improved. Chinas collapse, BTL getting taxed slightly better, the swing to the left ,commodities through the floor and the stashed money (in property) starting to flow right out again.easy come easy go. Maybe a brexit, America interest rates up, pound dropping. Basel 3. MMR. etc etc

So now I'm much better set up to take advantage of the crash. It's now obviously no longer a matter of 'if' but 'when'. And it's coming towards us at a great pace, anywhere between 6-18 months away now.

I wish I stuck to my gold guns, instead of my permanent portfolio approach. But I'm happy with my choices as a whole. I do feel we have been in a depression and we will remain to be for another 4-5 years at least.

HPC has meant a lot to me. as the media and debt-junkies can make you feel like a failure for not being able to afford or accept prices. HPC can make you cut trough the crap and learn what's actually happening.

Like many of you on this forum, I've been very interested in house prices since 2007, when I started looking to buy a house after nearly a decade of renting at that time. When the economic crisis hit in 2008, I believed like many others that interest rates would rise and this would be the trigger for a housing price "crash".
Suffice to say I'm still renting and waiting for house prices to fall to more affordable levels (i.e. relative to average incomes). This past 8 years has certainly tested my resolve. It sounds like many of you feel the same way.
Looking back, I see clearly that I underestimated 3 things: 1) the level of coordination between the world's Central Banks, which enabled the BoE and other central banks to keep interest rates near zero for an historically unprecedented period. 2) I underestimated just how inadequate the existing housing supply is for current and future generations. 3) I also underestimated the levels the government would go to, in order to prop up and indeed re-inflate the existing house price bubble. FLS, H2B etc etc.
But now the tide is finally turning.
As jiltedjen has stated, there are now encouraging signs that the ridiculous environment created by an insanely low housing stock, near-zero interest rates and short-sighted Government schemes like "Help To Buy" is slowly starting to hit the cold hard wall of economic reality.
I believe we've now reached an inflection point. In the coming decade, the following 5 events will combine to create a perfect storm of headwinds for UK house prices:
1. A tide of rising interest rates. As jiltedjen said, this has already been started by the US Federal Reserve, and the BoE will soon have to follow suit unless they want their currency to lose all credibility in the global currency markets. Please do not despair on the interest rate front and fall for the fallacy that the government and BoE have total control over when interest rates change. The ONLY reason the BoE has been able to keep rates near zero so long is because of the intense and unprecedented level of central bank coordination around the world to keep interest rates locked to the floor. The rate-setting mechanism is usually controlled by the markets. But for the last 8 years it's been carefully coordinated and managed by the world's central banks, as a response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis that we now find ourselves in. But now that the US has started raising rates, things are going to change. Why do you think the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen from 1.58 in August last year to just 1.40 this month? It is no coincidence! This happened because the US raised interest rates. The drop in the value of the Pound is investors saying "my capital will be treated better parked in the US dollar, so that's where I'm going to move it". That drop in the value of the Pound against the US Dollar is capital flight, plain and simple. This is known as "Comparative Advantage" in the currency markets. Now, the Pound will continue to drop in value until the BoE raises interest rates. How big are the BoE's balls? In the next year we will find out! Don't get me wrong, any interest rate rises by the BoE will be slow and miniscule. But the impact over time on over-leveraged home owners addicted to rock-bottom rates will be significant.
2. The end of buy to let as a profitable non-institutional "cornershop investment". George Osborne has now removed landlord's ability to offset mortgage interest payments against their income tax bill. (Do you think George might've done this also because he knows higher interest rates are coming?).
3. As a follow-up to item 2 above, as of April this year, there will be a 3% added stamp duty charge on anyone buying a second home or rental property over £40,000. The combination of items 2 and 3 means a gradual sell-off of some of the existing buy-to-let housing stock, increasing the available to-buy housing stock for first time buyers, and therefore impacting prices. In the downward direction.
4. A slow, steady rise in new housing stock over the next 15 years. The government has stated it wants to build 1 million new homes by 2020 (see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-34209027).Of course, this being a government scheme, it will ultimately be inadequate to meet the needs of our rising population. But still better than today's situation. Because the supply/demand situatuion is so tight, ANY increase on today's standards will be significant to the housing market.
And now for the biggie:
5. Over the course of the next decade, 25 year mortgages at today's low rates will dry-up. The halcyon days of leverage provided by interest-only mortgages and low long-term fixed rates are OVER. I know you've heard this before. After 2008 many of us thought that this situation would impact prices fairly quickly, hence the calls for a "crash". And actually, a toughening of lending rules did start to have an impact, hence the temporary dip in house prices in 2008/2009. But the government has been propping the market up artificially ever since then, with near-zero rates and "affordability" schemes such as Help To Buy. This has granted the housing bubble a temporary reprieve - but the fundamental problems in terms of prices are still lurking beneath the (thin) surface of this government intervention. Remember, Real Estate (property, both domestic and commercial) is the biggest asset class in the world economy, bar none. This is because of the sheer number of participants. Unlike say the stock market, real estate investment involves the rich and poor alike, and both private and commercial interests. Because of this high level of participation, it is real estate that most profoundly affects the length and depth of economic depressions. So when the liquidity for this bubble finally finally dries up, the impact will be significant. But the deleveraging of the bubble will not be sharp and quick in the form of an overnight crash, because there's just too much value to deleverage quickly. Rather, it will be a slow, drawn out affair. Prices will go down to meet the availability of credit and cash.
So don't lose the faith TheCountOfNowhere. Your 20,000 posts have been worth it. In 10 years time you will have a wry smile on your face when you think back to these posts, sitting back enjoying your sensibly priced home!

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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