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You Pop To The Bog And This News Leaks Out : Rics London And Hong Kong's Property Markets Are Fit To Burst


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Interesting.

They're right, but I wonder how they reached '1.9' - and what it means? 90% overvalued? Overvalued compared to what?

No idea...its RICS...it must already be true if they are telling people it might happen....as some of us already know...PCL is not looking healthy.

Might as well get your story out and look like a genius if it all goes belly up...you'll be more believable after that.

Jeese, im becoming very cynical.

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Carney says there's no bubble though.

....and, he is going to smash the pound down so £2000000 for a bedsit looks cheap!

I hope property prices fall faster than the pound! I don't want to buy anything, I just want to laugh hysterically at the HPI fools! I would shoot myself in both feet if I thought it would help! :P

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I'm hoping 1.9 does indeed mean 1.9 times overvalued, although I've been looking at Rightmove recently with all the good news at the moment with a 40%-50% reduction in my mind and some areas of Greater London still look a tad overpriced to me taking a crash into account!

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I'm hoping 1.9 does indeed mean 1.9 times overvalued, although I've been looking at Rightmove recently with all the good news at the moment with a 40%-50% reduction in my mind and some areas of Greater London still look a tad overpriced to me taking a crash into account!

I concur.

The asking prices is beyond silly now.

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I'm hoping 1.9 does indeed mean 1.9 times overvalued, although I've been looking at Rightmove recently with all the good news at the moment with a 40%-50% reduction in my mind and some areas of Greater London still look a tad overpriced to me taking a crash into account!

Yeah, I've been seeing things come on round here at twice 2007 sold prices.

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I'm hoping 1.9 does indeed mean 1.9 times overvalued, although I've been looking at Rightmove recently with all the good news at the moment with a 40%-50% reduction in my mind and some areas of Greater London still look a tad overpriced to me taking a crash into account!

I think 1.9 means 190% overvalued which seems about right.

Tom Weekenborg - I wouldn't say there is much of a bubble in London,

He's an estate agent in London. Who'd have thunk it.

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Link to a UBS web page below with a link to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index pdf. The pdf is from 2015 and I'm not 100% certain how up to date it is but it gives London's bubble value as 1.88 which is close enough to the 1.9 referred to in this thread.


The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index is designed to track the risk of housing bubbles in global financial centers. Bubble risk is most dis- tinct in London and Hong Kong. Deviations from the long-term norm point to significantly over- valued housing markets in Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Amsterdam. Valuations are also stretched in Geneva, Zurich, Paris, Frankfurt and, to a lesser degree, in Tokyo and Singapore. The US cities of New York and Boston are fairly valued, while Chicago is undervalued relative to its own history.

At risk of a price correction Cities at or near the bubble risk zone face a higher risk of a large price correction. A change in macroeconomic momentum, a shift in inves- tor sentiment or a major supply increase could trigger a decline in house prices. Between 1985 and 2009, whenever the index exceeded 1.0, i.e.it entered the upper half of overvaluation terri- tory, a real price correction of on average 30% began within three years 95% of the time. Investors in overvalued markets should not expect real price appreciation in the medium to long run.

My bold.

Edited by billybong
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Link to a UBS web page below with a link to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index pdf. The pdf is from 2015 and I'm not 100% certain how up to date it is but it gives London's bubble value as 1.88 which is close enough to the 1.9 referred to in this thread.

My bold.

I remember this being posted last year and thinking "oh dear" but shock horror, prices have continued to go up. Although this is always what happens when a financial crisis strikers, the delayed sentiment ripple effect?

Couple more work colleagues have just bought into the bubble, one 320k and the other 350k. They were both bragging to me how their house has already gone up by 20k since buying a couple months ago! One had inheritance money for a deposit and the other long term living at home with partner.

It's just not sustainable that you can be in the top 10% of earners in the UK and *just* about get a mortgage for a tatty 1930's 3 bed on the outskirts of London *IF* prices fall 40-50%. If this doesn't happen in the next 2 or 3 years then I really must be getting myself out of this part of the country.

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