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UNSHURE

House Repossessions And Spiralling Debt In The North

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I posted a thread on the ‘E. Lancs/W Yorkshire boom’ in early October. At that time the bubble was in full swing. House prices were growing rapidly; houses were selling quickly; houses were the main topic in many pub and social gatherings; DIY stores appeared to be doing well; there was a real sense of ‘well being’ in the area. However, I think that things are starting to look a bit different now.

The thread that I posted in October is entitled ‘E. Lancs Activity Pointing To More Boom Before Bust’. Some of the other hpc members explained that the more undesirable areas, such as E Lancs, tend to experience the boom later than most areas. They also explained that the boom is often very sharp in such areas and equally sharp on the way down.

In the Summer and Autumn, Burnley shopping centre appeared to be booming. However, I went into the town centre yesterday morning and it seemed to be very quiet. Especially for the last Saturday before Christmas. Much quieter, in fact, than in the Summer and Autumn months.

Whilst I was in the town, I picked up a local Burnley newspaper. The front page headlines are entitled ‘Counting the Cost’. The article is about a massive increase in Repossessions , Job losses and Bankruptcies in the Burnley area. The article can be viewed on the following link: http://www.burnleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2...ticleID=1288077

In Rossendale, house prices appear to have stabilised. They do not appear to be rising like they were in the summer months. There are also a number of price reductions. I expect to see more of these in the new year.

Another thing that I have noticed in last month is the asking price that is advertised by EA’s. Instead of just stating the asking price, they place ‘O.I.R.O.’ before it (Offers in the Region Of). I didn’t notice this in the summer months when houses were selling quickly.

I also did a bit of analysis on a number of houses in the Bacup Area. I compared the EA’s asking price with actual selling prices of similar properties from the same street/avenue that had sold during the spring and summer. I found that the EA’s Late Autumn asking prices were around 20% higher than the Spring/Summer asking prices. However, to qualify, this was a very rough form of comparison.

Another thing that I have noticed is that there are a lot of houses that have had SOLD (subject to contract) signs outside them for several months.

If anyone had asked me three months ago, it looked like the E.Lancs/W. Yorks boom would never come to end. In my opinion, it is coming to a rapid halt. The question is then ‘what next’? An early 90’s style sharp correction? A flattening off whilst wages catch up? Or what about a slow protracted decline (say 15 years)?

I’m still not sure. But I now believe that the boom is coming to an end.

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If anyone had asked me three months ago, it looked like the E.Lancs/W. Yorks boom would never come to end. In my opinion, it is coming to a rapid halt. The question is then ‘what next’? An early 90’s style sharp correction? A flattening off whilst wages catch up? Or what about a slow protracted decline (say 15 years)?

I’m still not sure. But I now believe that the boom is coming to an end.

a sad story really. Although I'm amazed that people can stop rioting for long enough to bid up house prices.

Big crash coming. Emanating from the city centres first... Leeds and Manchester

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Big crash coming. Emanating from the city centres first... Leeds and Manchester

Cannot agree more. Very little is selling or being rented in Manchester I am told, with lots of properties empty. No panic yet, but how long can these people wait while losing money?

A price correction is on the way.

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a sad story really. Although I'm amazed that people can stop rioting for long enough to bid up house prices.

Big crash coming. Emanating from the city centres first... Leeds and Manchester

I agree that the M62 corridor is due a significant fall in prices, I'm not so convinced that the worst impact will be in the city centres. I look at the prices in towns like Huddersfield and Halifax and can see prices which are not in any way supported by income levels. At least in the cities there are young professionals who will rent - certainly as rental prices fall due to greater supply.

My belief is that the smaller, poorer towns will fall the most as any reduction in the cities will reduce the numbers of buyers willing to commute simply to find a place to live.

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I agree that the M62 corridor is due a significant fall in prices, I'm not so convinced that the worst impact will be in the city centres. I look at the prices in towns like Huddersfield and Halifax and can see prices which are not in any way supported by income levels. At least in the cities there are young professionals who will rent - certainly as rental prices fall due to greater supply.

My belief is that the smaller, poorer towns will fall the most as any reduction in the cities will reduce the numbers of buyers willing to commute simply to find a place to live.

you might well be right. I think the crash will *start* from the city centres though. The collapse in the value of the newbuilds will start the stampede

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Cannot agree more. Very little is selling or being rented in Manchester I am told, with lots of properties empty. No panic yet, but how long can these people wait while losing money?

A price correction is on the way.

Yep...suburb of manchester and all I see is stagnation..complete standstill - very little selling...most properties for rent are family homes previoulsy for sale - a lot of property for rent standing empty.

I have been watching this local market for over a year (rent and buy) and apart from a handful of sales it is the same stuff week after week, month after month.

GET THE MESSAGE GUYS - THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH.

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Yep...suburb of manchester and all I see is stagnation..complete standstill - very little selling...most properties for rent are family homes previoulsy for sale - a lot of property for rent standing empty.

I have been watching this local market for over a year (rent and buy) and apart from a handful of sales it is the same stuff week after week, month after month.

GET THE MESSAGE GUYS - THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH.

Agree. You only need to look at the houses that are on sale and match them to the price. Common sense should tell people not to buy at these inflated prices. Terraced Houses in poor quality areas are being advertised at 50K plus (some over 100K). Three years ago, these houses would be lucky to sell for £20K.

I think that prices in poor quality areas (Bacup, Burnley etc.) have a got a long way to go before they fall to the long term average trend. Some houses are selling (incredible), but the overall picture is that of a very slow market with vastly over inflated prices.

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Unshure, my husbands from just outside Burnley originally, so I've been watching house prices there for a while as we intend to move back to the area one day. How I wish I'd bought 2 years ago, or even 18 months. Houses have shot up in value with terrace houses almost tripling. Huge job cuts in the area too as you say. I truly believe it was the last area in the UK to boom and maybe one of the first to bust too.

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a sad story really. Although I'm amazed that people can stop rioting for long enough to bid up house prices.

Big crash coming. Emanating from the city centres first... Leeds and Manchester

Whether the downturn will be most marked in the smaller towns (Bacup, Burnley etc.) or in the big cities is yet to be seen. Towns such as Burnley and Oldham have seen rioting a few years ago. They also have some very rundown 'no-go' areas. However, this is not the whole picture.

Take Burnley for instance. There are some areas that resemble a war zone with virtually whole rows of houses boarded up. However, there are also some very high quality semi-rural areas with terrific scenery and very friendly people. It is a well known fact that many of the footballers, who have played for Burnley FC, have, at the end of their careers, settled down in Burnley. With the wages that footballers earn, I would expect that they stay in Burnley by choice.

The true picture of these towns is one of 'good areas' alongside 'bad areas'. I think that you could also say this about many cities. As for the rioting, many cities have also had their problems in the last 20 years or so. Even the more trendy cities such as London and Manchester.

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Unshure, my husbands from just outside Burnley originally, so I've been watching house prices there for a while as we intend to move back to the area one day.

I'm absolutely amazed that anyone would want to move to Burnley. I lived there for 35 years (up at Duke Bar, where the riots were). It didn't seem too bad when I lived there, but now I've moved out it would be the last place on earth I'd want to move back to. (Mind you, it has one of the best libraries in the area.)

There are nice areas outside of Burnley (Nelson and Colne). But these are quite selective. Burnley itself, sorry, but no thanks... ;)

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well im going to stick up for the burnley area. it might not be 100% glamour, but it has a lot of history and most of it still stands. its sleepy, cheap, semi-countryset. people are ok. though its supposed to be violent i worked there for a eyar and didnt really see anything bad. some people think its grim, but to be its industrial past makes it a gem. though because of its location house prices should match the local incomes - which can be poor. i cant see why burnley people feeding off other burnley people would be a good thing anyway.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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