Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Masked Tulip

How Best To Place A Bet On The Next Swansea Manager?

Recommended Posts

Oops, sorry - wrong thread. Meant for Off-topic. Can you move it please Mods?

I know nothing about betting - asume that one of these online betting places is best? - but how could I go about placing a bet on who will be the Swansea Manager for the start of the next season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably your best route would be going through a fringe website about house prices. :P

Try oddschecker.

here you go - only available on betfair according to this

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/swansea/next-swansea-manager

Thanks.

I was looking at that a week ago - the odds on my guy have fallen considerably in that time. Word must be out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks.

I was looking at that a week ago - the odds on my guy have fallen considerably in that time. Word must be out.

Go on then spread the wealth, its Harry Redknapp isn't it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the market on Betfair Exchange:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.122215182

I'm an arber and matched bettor so I'm on Betfair all the time, but I originally opened my account to punt on interest rate changes, and managed to scalp Ed Milliband's appointment to the leadership of the Labour Party thanks to inside information. Everyone should have a Betfair account IMO, very useful!

Anyway looks like Francesco Guidolin is pretty much nailed on...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am hoping that this guy will push the odds up of my guy in the next few days.

Alternatively betfair gives you the opportunity to lay the favourite, ie take someone elses bet on the favourite. If the favourite comes in, you pay out, if not you keep the bettor's stake. Probably the most profitable way of betting here if you think the favourite isn't getting it. You could clean up :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alternatively betfair gives you the opportunity to lay the favourite, ie take someone elses bet on the favourite. If the favourite comes in, you pay out, if not you keep the bettor's stake. Probably the most profitable way of betting here if you think the favourite isn't getting it. You could clean up :)

That sounds risky.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall a thread on here many years ago linking to a thread elsewhere where people thought they were arbing the first scorer market on a particular game.

Only they hadn't taken non-runners into account... Some people ended up on the hook for serious 5 figure sums. No idea how they resolved it in the end. I'm guessing Betfair just cancelled the market as they couldn't have legally gone after the people involved due to them not having credit accounts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That sounds risky.

Well Guedolin or however you spell him is now 1/4- odds of 1.25. If you put £100 on him being the next manager you are risking your £100 to make a profit of £25.

If you don't think he's the next manager you can lay him for £100, which would mean you're only risking £25 if he is appointed, but stand to win £100 (- Betfair's 5% comission) if he isn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall a thread on here many years ago linking to a thread elsewhere where people thought they were arbing the first scorer market on a particular game.

Only they hadn't taken non-runners into account... Some people ended up on the hook for serious 5 figure sums. No idea how they resolved it in the end. I'm guessing Betfair just cancelled the market as they couldn't have legally gone after the people involved due to them not having credit accounts.

That played out on the MSE forums. I think it was in the relatively early days of Betfair, and they hadn't considered the possibility of idiots not understanding the markets and getting themselves into foolish positions, and so had to eat the losses that exuberant MSE speculators had accrued and were not in a position to make good.

But I'm pretty sure they sorted their system straight after to make sure that you couldn't lay outcomes that you didn't have deposits on hand to cover. Most of the major bookies have outed me as a pisstaker now, but when I had all my accounts and was going all out for free bets on the Channel 4 televised races it wasn't unusual for my £4k Betfair balance to dip below £1k available due to the liabilities I'd accrued laying loads of horses at 10/1 or more at 25 quid a time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall a thread on here many years ago linking to a thread elsewhere where people thought they were arbing the first scorer market on a particular game.

Only they hadn't taken non-runners into account... Some people ended up on the hook for serious 5 figure sums. No idea how they resolved it in the end. I'm guessing Betfair just cancelled the market as they couldn't have legally gone after the people involved due to them not having credit accounts.

I think I've mentioned it before, it was comedy gold, particularly the bit when the penny dropped and it all changed from patting each other on the back to having to change your pants!

As Rave mentioned above, the older Betfair system used to do some weird mathematics which essentially allowed people to build up massive liabilities without having anything to back it up. I'm sure I read of other people, not from MSE, who fell foul of the same issue just with their normal betting. It should be all sorted now and safeguards in place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I've mentioned it before, it was comedy gold, particularly the bit when the penny dropped and it all changed from patting each other on the back to having to change your pants!

As Rave mentioned above, the older Betfair system used to do some weird mathematics which essentially allowed people to build up massive liabilities without having anything to back it up. I'm sure I read of other people, not from MSE, who fell foul of the same issue just with their normal betting. It should be all sorted now and safeguards in place.

It was brilliant wasn't it! Posts like 'kerching, another fifty quid', quickly replaced with 'I'm ringing betfair right now to sort this out, gambling debts aren't legally enforceable are they?' :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish I understood arbing and what went wrong

An arbitrage is just a difference in price of something you can buy/sell. So if I said to you I wanted a Mars Bar for £1, you know you could get it for 60p, then that is an arb and you could instantly pocket 40p profit on each 'trade'. I suppose the main area of use would be trading in shares, commodities, etc. but the theory is the same in any market as long as you can find a difference between buy and sell.

In the example of betting you might find that you could back (buy) Wayne Rooney for the first goal at 5/1 with Ladbrokes and then lay (sell) the same bet on Betfair at 4/1. If he goes on to score the first goal you would get £60 back from Ladbrokes but would have to payout £50 to the person on Betfair, making a £10 profit. If the bets are available and struck at the same time then the profit SHOULD BE guaranteed.

Now, onto what happened!

In a first goalscorer market nobody knows who will or won't play in the game so Betfair will make the whole squad available to bet on, knowing that some of them won't play and they will be void, until the teams for the match are declared and the non-players will be removed. On Betfair this had the effect of massively skewing the market and making it look like you could back every player to score the first goal and guarantee a profit whoever scored it. So for example you could put £10 on every player and whichever outcome happened might net you £50, EASY MONEY!

The first problem was that once the teams were revealed, and the non-players removed, those profits (shown in green on Betfair) quickly became losses and went all red! That in itself would be squeaky bum time but there was a further issue with Betfair's system, talked about above, which effectively allowed users to accumulate much larger liabilities than they had available in their account. So, as it stands now, you can only risk your account balance PLUS any returns you might be guaranteed should the outcome you are laying (selling) happen but previously a user might be able to lay bets to many multiples of the same balance, which should not have happened.

So the outcome was that a) players were instantly onto a losing bet once the market changes and B) the greedier ones, who had tried to make as much as possible by taking advantage of the issue above, were now on the hook for A LOT of money!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   19 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.