Why The Last General Election Opinion Polls Were Wrong

[Frank Hovis]

This was buried away in an always quality programme called "More or Less", R4 Friday 4.30pm, which drills into what numbers used in headlines actually mean. And it's usually not how they're spun.

Worth a listen particularly for how incorrectly the weekend alcohol related admissions to A&E were portrayed: way too high.

For all the speculation about the opinion polls it was found that the only ones that got it right were those that took a week and did multiple follow-ups on their original sample until they had answers from nearly all those selected.

The ones that got it wrong were those that were done over a single day, as these usually are, and just used the answers they had.

The analysis showed that there was a big bias to Labour in the first responses which could only be corrected by follow-ups which the industry don't like because it makes polls now much lengthier and more expensive.

The speculation boiled down to Conservative voters being more likely to be employed and richer than Labour voters. So are less likely to be in to answer the door or phone and more likely to ignore an unknown email.

[Cosmic Apple]

Speaking to my brother after the election and we both came to the same conclusion, that those who are more left leaning and likely to vote labour are far more vocal about it, loving to tell you that you are wrong an and idiot if you express an opinion that is different from theirs. So while all the labour voters were out telling everyone about it, a larger group of people were quietly getting on with their lives and saving their voice for polling day.

[dgul]

Surely once they know that there is a bias in their sampling method they can just apply the necessary correction factor to the quick'n'dirty results?

[LiveinHope]

This was buried away in an always quality programme called "More or Less", R4 Friday 4.30pm, which drills into what numbers used in headlines actually mean. And it's usually not how they're spun.

Worth a listen particularly for how incorrectly the weekend alcohol related admissions to A&E were portrayed: way too high.

For all the speculation about the opinion polls it was found that the only ones that got it right were those that took a week and did multiple follow-ups on their original sample until they had answers from nearly all those selected.

The ones that got it wrong were those that were done over a single day, as these usually are, and just used the answers they had.

The analysis showed that there was a big bias to Labour in the first responses which could only be corrected by follow-ups which the industry don't like because it makes polls now much lengthier and more expensive.

The speculation boiled down to Conservative voters being more likely to be employed and richer than Labour voters. So are less likely to be in to answer the door or phone and more likely to ignore an unknown email.

I listened to it live and found the squirming of the interviewee, as he tried to spell out the obvious without appearing to say it obviously, to be priceless. I believe he said at one point that Conservative voters were, more likely to be out during the day because they had better things to do

[Frank Hovis]

I listened to it live and found the squirming of the interviewee, as he tried to spell out the obvious without appearing to say it obviously, to be priceless. I believe he said at one point that Conservative voters were, more likely to be out during the day because they had better things to do

Yes, I also toned it down but I know we were all visualising the Labour voter breaking from his Jeremy Kyle show in his council flat to shuffle to answer the door, ecstatic at something breaking the monotony.

[Bossybabe]

There's a point in there about intelligence, methinks. ?

[Mr. Miyagi]

Speaking to my brother after the election and we both came to the same conclusion, that those who are more left leaning and likely to vote labour are far more vocal about it, loving to tell you that you are wrong an and idiot if you express an opinion that is different from theirs. So while all the labour voters were out telling everyone about it, a larger group of people were quietly getting on with their lives and saving their voice for polling day.

There is an element of truth in this. Am on the right/libertarian side of the political spectrum (I voted UKIP in the last election) and on the run up to the last election I was constantly castigated by my Labour voting colleagues as being a tory boy/Maggie's boot boy/racist/fruit cake all the usual childish and patently untrue insults, so much so that I no longer bother to talk at all about politics at work.

[Frank Hovis]

There is an element of truth in this. Am on the right/libertarian side of the political spectrum (I voted UKIP in the last election) and on the run up to the last election I was constantly castigated by my Labour voting colleagues as being a tory boy/Maggie's boot boy/racist/fruit cake all the usual childish and patently untrue insults, so much so that I no longer bother to talk at all about politics at work.

I don't bother, many I work with have had twenty years working for a Labour council so it's football team type loyalty. "The Tories are the evil enemy" thinking.

It's also naked self interest; under Labour the public sector gets huge swathes of money so pay rises and extra recruitment all round. Part of the motivation for that "tax the banker bonuses" rhetoric is that we all know where that tax would go: into public sector pay rises.

[Bossybabe]

Speaking as a public sector employee a pay rise would be a novelty.

[Frank Hovis]

Speaking as a public sector employee a pay rise would be a novelty.

I know a senior RBS manager, last pay rise about ten years ago.

If you work in the public sector and you want a pay rise the simple answer is vote Labour; it's why a lot of them do so because they know they'll get looked after and the private sector will be paying for it.

I would have thought my lot, and by extension the NHS, civil service, are about 70% Labour voters. That's why Corbyn wants to nationalise the railways - more guaranteed votes.

[Bossybabe]

I know a senior RBS manager, last pay rise about ten years ago.

If you work in the public sector and you want a pay rise the simple answer is vote Labour; it's why a lot of them do so because they know they'll get looked after and the private sector will be paying for it.

I would have thought my lot, and by extension the NHS, civil service, are about 70% Labour voters. That's why Corbyn wants to nationalise the railways - more guaranteed votes.

I'm definitely not one of the 70%. I'd rather not have a pay rise if it involves a Labour government.

[debtlessmanc]

I know a senior RBS manager, last pay rise about ten years ago.

If you work in the public sector and you want a pay rise the simple answer is vote Labour; it's why a lot of them do so because they know they'll get looked after and the private sector will be paying for it.

I would have thought my lot, and by extension the NHS, civil service, are about 70% Labour voters. That's why Corbyn wants to nationalise the railways - more guaranteed votes.

In my experience (I am an academic my wife is FD of a SME software company) the biggest difference between private and public sectors is not pay it is the incredible ability of the public sector to employ more and more non-job type people particualry in social responsibility type positions.

My wife's company employs 20 software engineers and she is accountant/HR/contracts/teal lady for the lot

At university those that can actually do the job are slowly being buried under piles of people who look after diversity etc and keep on making us go on courses etc. An example is a British colleagues who complained about being taught about diversity when he had an Indian wife and two Anglo-Indian kids back home...

The sense of entitlement is incredible too- this leads to the tortious promotion procedures and regular grievances/ tribunals - employing mor non jobs

All this lot vote labour of course as it is an obsession of the left

[MrPin]

As for Political Parties, there's hardly much to choose between them. When did any of them have a proper job? Public or private sector? And I don't mean a part time quango directorship.

[crashmonitor]

Having rented a house in a social housing block I have to say that what poor people say they will do and what they actually do cometh the day are two different things.

(1) I'll meet you later at the pub

(2) I will definitely go for that job interview tomorrow

(3) I'll pay you back tomorrow

[MrPin]

In my experience (I am an academic my wife is FD of a SME software company) the biggest difference between private and public sectors is not pay it is the incredible ability of the public sector to employ more and more non-job type people particualry in social responsibility type positions.

My wife's company employs 20 software engineers and she is accountant/HR/contracts/teal lady for the lot

At university those that can actually do the job are slowly being buried under piles of people who look after diversity etc and keep on making us go on courses etc. An example is a British colleagues who complained about being taught about diversity when he had an Indian wife and two Anglo-Indian kids back home...

The sense of entitlement is incredible too- this leads to the tortious promotion procedures and regular grievances/ tribunals - employing mor non jobs

All this lot vote labour of course as it is an obsession of the left

I hear your words Manky, and I thank the Lord (or whatever there is.) that I didn't waste a lot of my life doing a PhD in some useless discipline with a load of self serving plonkers who will take your good ideas.

[Mr. Miyagi]

In my experience (I am an academic my wife is FD of a SME software company) the biggest difference between private and public sectors is not pay it is the incredible ability of the public sector to employ more and more non-job type people particualry in social responsibility type positions.

My wife's company employs 20 software engineers and she is accountant/HR/contracts/teal lady for the lot

At university those that can actually do the job are slowly being buried under piles of people who look after diversity etc and keep on making us go on courses etc. An example is a British colleagues who complained about being taught about diversity when he had an Indian wife and two Anglo-Indian kids back home...

The sense of entitlement is incredible too- this leads to the tortious promotion procedures and regular grievances/ tribunals - employing mor non jobs

All this lot vote labour of course as it is an obsession of the left

Not forgetting the large amount of chiefs to Indians, where I work there is a 2 Indians to 1 chief ratio.

[pl1]

Surely once they know that there is a bias in their sampling method they can just apply the necessary correction factor to the quick'n'dirty results?

Was just about to type this.. thankyou.

[JoeDavola]

Speaking to my brother after the election and we both came to the same conclusion, that those who are more left leaning and likely to vote labour are far more vocal about it, loving to tell you that you are wrong an and idiot if you express an opinion that is different from theirs. So while all the labour voters were out telling everyone about it, a larger group of people were quietly getting on with their lives and saving their voice for polling day.

Yes it's incredible isn't it; if you were to believe social media and what most young people say, everyone loathes the Torys and nobody at all votes for them.

Except loads of people did. Enough to get them elected. Twice.

Think the lesson there is not to waste too much of one's life paying attention to Social Justice Warriors on social media, although they do seem to get a disproportionately loud voice.

[MrPin]

Actually I think the Tories are shit too!

[debtlessmanc]

Then there is also the fact that it is now over 50 years since anyone elected a labour PM other than Bliar, and look how that turned out..

[Dorkins]

Yes it's incredible isn't it; if you were to believe social media and what most young people say, everyone loathes the Torys and nobody at all votes for them.

Except loads of people did. Enough to get them elected. Twice.

24% of registered voters voted Conservative, take into account voter registration rates and you're close to 1 in 5 British adults bothering to mark an X next to the person with the blue rosette.

As a proportion of the population very few people voted Conservative, it's just we have an electoral system designed to massively amplify their voice.

[debtlessmanc]

24% of registered voters voted Conservative, take into account voter registration rates and you're close to 1 in 5 British adults bothering to mark an X next to the person with the blue rosette.

As a proportion of the population very few people voted Conservative, it's just we have an electoral system designed to massively amplify their voice.

Standard electoral thinking in the UK is that high turnouts favour the conservatives. But yes would be interesting to see what would happen if people had to vote by law like in Australia

[LiveinHope]

In other news, I thought that the retired overwhelmingly voted Tory.

Plus, I have it on first hand info that the local tories were going around all the housing estates and frightening the voters with the prospect they were going to be run by a small minority from scotland. It must have come across very well in their focus groups because they pretty much rammed that message home again and again as the election approached. Again, fear won out as the pen hovered above the ballot papers.

EDIT: IPSOS Mori "How people voted" demographic splits....some very interesting splits in the table including the usual age, sex, social group stuff but also 'white' and ethnic minorities, and housing tenure stuff. The tories must see the big trends are not in their favour looking far into the future as their supporters die off (unless people become more naturally conservative as they age), immigration proceeds and more people rent.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide

Perhaps the retired Conservatives are of the ilk that tell cold callers where to go, or are out because they have more money and better things to do ?

I don't know what the reasons are, but I am open top the idea that there may a cultural difference between Labour and Conservative voters that biases polls.

[rxe]

Perhaps the retired Conservatives are of the ilk that tell cold callers where to go, or are out because they have more money and better things to do ?

I don't know what the reasons are, but I am open top the idea that there may a cultural difference between Labour and Conservative voters that biases polls.

Well, I'm a conservative voter, and I have no idea how they would gain my opinion. I'm not at home during the day (working), I don't fill in surveys, and if they stop me on the street, they get short shrift. I screen calls, and pretty much only answer numbers I recognise.

[Frank Hovis]

Perhaps the retired Conservatives are of the ilk that tell cold callers where to go, or are out because they have more money and better things to do ?

That's what the pollster suggested. So weeks away, playing golf, out for lunch etc. so unlikely to be there at the first time of asking which is all the majority of polls do.