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About 30 or so years ago would have been a good time to buy.

15 years ago around me. When I look at the house 4 bed detached house I could've bought for less than the price a 2 bed terrace goes for now, I'm sick in my mouth. Should've got a mortgage at 18, going to count as the biggest financial mistake of my life.

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With the prospect of a HPC I'm interested to hear from posters on here at what point would you buy a house? How far would prices have to fall before you bought?

Prices would have to drop a great deal in my opinion, maybe up to 60 % of current prices depending on which area you live. Though, I look at it in these terms; When I can buy the average sized house in a decent area (not some sh1tbox, or flat) for 3-4 times of average local salary. Chances of that happening look very slim, so I may never buy in this HPI obsessed debt ponzi land. Chances of relocating / buying abroad, where I see fair value, is increasingly looking like a possibility.

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Where I live in the southeast (outside London) a 2 bed terrace in an okay area costs half a million pounds. I'd maybe buy the one we're renting if I could get it for £130-140k which would be ten years' rental cost.

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I've got a different take on this which is that I am watching repossession statistics, overall market transaction volumes and BTL approval volumes. I figure that as long as there is lots of speculative money in the market, you are taking a gamble stretching to buy, and in the South East it's a mental stretch even against earnings way over median local earnings, (and a chunky deposit), hence the interest in BTL approvals. Repossession data I'm taking as a loose proxy for people's ability to hang on to their bonkers price. If nobody has to sell, then effectively sellers can unduly influence price simply by refusing to sell. As the repo data may be unduly influenced by extend and pretend policies by the lenders I figure you need to look at transaction volumes. (Also, I think that the presence of things like Help to Buy equity loans are probably an indication of the need to stay out of the market.)

Essentially, as long as it walks and talks like a rigged market with both speculative investment and government intervention weighing very heavily on prices I am more comfortable renting and saving. Once prices start falling the gradual return of 'normality' via the removal of these other influences (BTL get burned, falling prices alleviate the need for politically expedient schemes, withdrawal of foreign money being parked in London and the South East as falling prices discourages cash inflows) will indicate decreasing risk of further downwards movements.

Long and short, when it looks like prices are in closer agreement with wages, I'll take an interest. Where that is in percentage terms will depend on what happens to mortgage rates and wage inflation in the meantime. Back in the here and now, London is a monster bubble, and its insanity has dragged prices within a commutable distance up to equally stupid levels relative to what people can afford to pay for houses.

Edited by Bland Unsight

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Seems likely an opportunities will be presenting themselves in the next few years, for the reasons outlined by Bland Unsight- the quenching of speculative BTL money flowing into the market, and the screws being put on existing participants via tax relief reductions on mortgage interest.

In areas of high incidences of HMOs for student populations, as happens to be the situation in my area of interest (liverpool) I wonder if many tenanted HMOs currently up for sale(there are many) may end up as untenanted ones at the start of the next academic year. Reckon some LLs may have signed 9 or 12 month ASTs for the academic year prior to appreciating the impact of the tax changes and the more brazen are trying to offload mid-year. What chance they will be renewing or not issuing S21s if the properties do not sell at auction between now and the summer? Might not happen in the way I expect of course but I would not entirely rule out purchase opportunities appearing as early as Autumn.

I am also hugely heartened to read that BTL forum big cheeses are admitting they are going to be selling up or leaving the country. That ought to focus a few minds in 'monkey see, monkey do' BTL circles about the gravity of the situation.

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