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Realistbear

Us And Uk House Prices Will Set Ir In 2006, Ft Sunday

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http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/051218/fto12...21036.html?.v=1

FT.com

Preview: Housing markets to provide rate clues

Sunday December 18, 5:45 am ET

By Chris Flood

"The outlook for housing markets in the US and UK and their impact on the wider economy provide an important theme for this week's data releases. The link between property prices and wider economic activity is increasingly recognised by policymakers as a crucial factor for decisions on interest rates."

RICS go against the statistics and saw a rebound in the UK in October--Nationwide, Hometrack dead wrong apparently!

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors will publish its November survey tomorrow.

What will it say? Any advance knowledge here? Dare they mention the SIPPs disaster? The drop in EA income following this catastrophe will be far reaching and impact EAs for an entire generation!

For some Christmas cheer:

http://www.devilducky.com/media/26599

Edited by Realistbear

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If US interest rates go down, the dollar will drop through the floor... since most of America hasn't been hit as hard as Britain with house price rises (hard to inflate prices much in the middle of the country where there's always more land to build on), they're not going to care anywhere near as much about a house price crash.

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If US interest rates go down, the dollar will drop through the floor... since most of America hasn't been hit as hard as Britain with house price rises (hard to inflate prices much in the middle of the country where there's always more land to build on), they're not going to care anywhere near as much about a house price crash.

US rates will contninue to rise throughout most of 2006 according to the Fed. Their bubble markets in E & W Coasts will pop but in so doing will not affect the rest of the US which is vast. THe UK is facing a dramatic economic slowdown in 2006 but any cut in IR will push the pound over the edge. Gordon has the country between a rock and a hard place.

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http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/051218/fto12...21036.html?.v=1

FT.com

Preview: Housing markets to provide rate clues

Sunday December 18, 5:45 am ET

By Chris Flood

"The outlook for housing markets in the US and UK and their impact on the wider economy provide an important theme for this week's data releases. The link between property prices and wider economic activity is increasingly recognised by policymakers as a crucial factor for decisions on interest rates."

RICS go against the statistics and saw a rebound in the UK in October--Nationwide, Hometrack dead wrong apparently!

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors will publish its November survey tomorrow.

What will it say? Any advance knowledge here? Dare they mention the SIPPs disaster? The drop in EA income following this catastrophe will be far reaching and impact EAs for an entire generation!

For some Christmas cheer:

http://www.devilducky.com/media/26599

The correlation between previous (previous quarter) house price inflation and future interest rates has been significant over the last 25 years. It's the housing market that leads interest rates and not the other way around (contrary to what most people even in this forum believe)

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Call me Mr. Thickey but why would lowering IRs cause the Pound or the Dollar to tank - simply because foreign investors will go and seek better IRs elsewhere?

a) yes.

B) it's a clear sign that the economy is turning to crap, which will hardly encourage investment.

The dollar has hardly gone up recently (and is down substantially against gold over the last year) despite about a quadrupling of interest rates. If they go down, the dollar will be in even bigger trouble.

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Ah, OK but the Pound has ben very strong in recent times againt the dollar even though IRs were low... but that was because IRs in the US were even lower right?

So, we now have IRs rising in the US and if the UK lowers IRs then the pound will fall... which it is already doing as the US raises its IRs. Interesting.

A cheaper pound makes our exports cheaper for foreigners to buy but, heck, we don't make anything any more apart from civil servants and red tape... and TVs, fridges, DVDs, etc, will get more expensive... Oh, roll on... the sooner the better...

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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