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libitina

Screeching To A Halt.

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The turn around in public sentiment seems to be gaining pace in the last few weeks doesn't it? People at work are discussing the economy, some of their partners have been put on short time, sales are down. Newspapers are displaying a hint of bearishness. People in the street discussing worrying housing market.

What kicked it all off? Was it oil prices? Sipps u-turn?

Will it continue to gain pace after Xmas?

I'm looking forward to sitting back and watching the fallout :)

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I think it is a bit of all of the factors that you quote plus the inevitability that housing is cyclical.

I think most of the population actually know that really, but are happy to be convinced otherwise - a bit like the poor numptys on the space cadets programme - they were happy to be convinced that they were in space - but their gut feeling was telling them they had not moved all along - maybe UK housing is about the same.

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I agree - people's moods seem to be changing. Part of my job involves strategic communications planning over the short-medium term (say up to 5 years or so). About nine months ago I mentioned the possibility of a recession over the next few years - it was greeted with a little surprise by some. Now others are spontaneously mentioning it in our regular meetings.

But don't forget winter is generally the time that people feel a bit gloomier - sentiment may change from spring onwards.

Edited by greencat

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I agree - people's moods seem to be changing. Part of my job involves strategic communications planning over the short-medium term (say up to 5 years or so). About nine months ago I mentioned the possibility of a recession over the next few years - it was greeted with a little surprise by some. Now others are spontaneously mentioning it in our regular meetings.

But don't forget winter is generally the time that people feel a bit gloomier - sentiment may change from spring onwards.

I'm not sure there is much left in the sentiment-improving spring box this year though Greencat. It would now appear unavoidable that the 1 and 2 bed urban BTL market will go to the wall and once the press get the scent of blood (greedy landlords undercutting each other to stay solvent) the coverage will be extensive.

Throw in a couple of low +ves and you might get a rigor mortis twitch but this cat is out of the bag.

Double page spread in yesterdays DT and end-of -year reports saying "House prices fall for first time in 10 years" mean the change in sentiment has already started and its inexorable.

The Fox

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Did sentiment change so suddenly last time too?

It was EXACTLY the same last time around. It took a long time for sentiment to turn around i.e. before it was widely acknowleged as anything other than a temporary slow-down.

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shops where i am are packed..... woolworths was a knightmare

Yes, massive traffic jam in Cambridge today trying to get out of the parking lot for Currys, Argos etc. And all I wanted was some hoover bags. That'll teach me to try shopping during lunchtime the week before Christmas. <_<

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shops where i am are packed..... woolworths was a knightmare

I was in the West End today. Yeah, it was packed but I didn't see as many bags as in prevuious years. Profits come from sales, not footfall.

The fact that Woolworths was busy, makes me even more certain we're in the formative stages of a consumer led recession. Don't be at all surprised if previously unloved retailers like Woolworths, M&S and Sainsbury's do well, whilst all these overpriced fashion/lifestyle chains experience the 7 lean years which we all know are coming.

People are drowning under a sea of debt, which hasn't been eroded by inflation. What part of that truism do retailers not understand?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

shops where i am are packed..... woolworths was a nightmare

And I bet smoke was pouring fom their CC terminals. <_<

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unavoidable that the 1 and 2 bed urban BTL market will go to the wall and once the press get the scent of blood (greedy landlords undercutting each other to stay solvent) the coverage will be extensive.

Double page spread in yesterdays DT and end-of -year reports saying "House prices fall for first time in 10 years" mean the change in sentiment has already started and its inexorable.

The Fox

And even some of my more bullish B2L aquaintances are at last agreeing with my now mature stance of selling here to buy abroad as they are now begining to realise that capital growth here isnt looking particularly likely.

LLs may pannick sell in order to get in on the new parties in E Europe, Red Sea, Morroco etc.

Only today 3 LLs I know have just arranged to fly to Sharm el shiek with a view to building flats at £28000 to flip to UK buyers fo r £50000 off - plan.

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2006 will be the year that the cows will come home, the chickens will also come home, other farm yard animals will probably come home also and bulls will be taken round the back of the milking sheds by a farmer carrying a large pair of shears and some elastoplast!

Joking aside - who said I was joking - it is hitting home to people now. Many have not paid off last year's credit card debt yet, bills are rising everywhere - Council tax, fuel in your car and in your home, stealth taxes left, right and centre and people are now talking about IRs possibly rising and actually fearing any rise. Job losses seem to be on the increase, and reported in papers, and many, many people are simply maxed out on credit just as those all too tempting 0% deals disappear.

You can see the downturn for yourself. It is in the High Street. The shops are half empty, all have big discounts on and the talk at the water cooler is about that very subject.

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And I bet smoke was pouring fom their CC terminals. <_<

Yowza, just like the skit from that wonderfully vicious US sitcom 'Married with Children' when the wife comes in from a shopping expedition with the ditzy blonde daughter and tells Ed they've had 'a little accident'.

Ed leaps up and starts asking about his car, but wifie then shows him the credit card looking like a Salvador Dali clock.

That one got the most knowing laugh I've ever heard from a studio audience :lol::lol: .

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Only today 3 LLs I know have just arranged to fly to Sharm el shiek with a view to building flats at £28000 to flip to UK buyers fo r £50000 off - plan.

With the Muslim Brotherhood gaining in the recent Egyptian elections, and perhaps becoming more powerful, I wouldn't fancy investing in the Western Tourist Capital of Egypt. But I guess you only make profits with risks.

Edited by stillill

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And I bet smoke was pouring fom their CC terminals. <_<

Well I went at 20:15 and I hardly saw any other customers (6!). It was pointless being open in terms of their overheads. I only bought a bead making set and placemat for a grand total of £3.66. That should keep me out of debt :) .

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With the Muslim Brotherhood gaining in the recent Egyptian elections, and perhaps becoming more powerful, I wouldn't fancy investing in the Western Tourist Capital of Egypt. But I guess you only make profits with risks.

Keep your percpective all the Muslim countries are police stated. and the pay master is no less than uncle sam. Egypt is second only to Isreal in its long term annual reciept of military funds and hardware and even uniforms and army surplusses......

Like I say look beyond the lables...follow the money and you'll always find strings pulling the puppets.

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And even some of my more bullish B2L aquaintances are at last agreeing with my now mature stance of selling here to buy abroad as they are now begining to realise that capital growth here isnt looking particularly likely.

LLs may pannick sell in order to get in on the new parties in E Europe, Red Sea, Morroco etc.

Only today 3 LLs I know have just arranged to fly to Sharm el shiek with a view to building flats at £28000 to flip to UK buyers fo r £50000 off - plan.

And looking in Bairstow Eves window in Windsor the other day, big display in the middle of the window for property in Bulgaria. Figure Countrywide have realised the game is up here so our now trying to push property abroad as the next big thing - bit late really.

Noticed several high street agents that have never sold foreign property before are now jumping on the bandwagon. They ought to sell fags and papers too.

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Well I went at 20:15 and I hardly saw any other customers (6!). It was pointless being open in terms of their overheads. I only bought a bead making set and placemat for a grand total of £3.66. That should keep me out of debt :) .

I went to the supermarket last night at about 6:30 and there was hardly anyone there, some of the checkout operators were sitting about with nothing to do. This to me is downright peculiar. Every year previous to last year the supermarkets were always packed to the brimming in the last week before Christmas. I particularly remember about five years ago when every checkout had a queue right down the aisle behind it. Last year this didn't happen. This year it doesn't seem to be happening either...

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I went to the supermarket last night at about 6:30 and there was hardly anyone there

But in Milton Keynes at lunchtime/early afternoon, Tesco's was very busy, according to my other half,

Peter.

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But in Milton Keynes at lunchtime/early afternoon, Tesco's was very busy, according to my other half,

Peter.

My newsagent in London had a bit of a queue as well, Ignorant.

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My newsagent in London had a bit of a queue as well, Ignorant.

Indeed but is this because they have cut down on staff to decrease costs. My butcher is very quiet as well, he blames tesco but I told him I think it is people reducing the level of MEW.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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