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Predictions On Foreign Buyers

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Foreign buyers have been a significant actor in the UK housing market especially in London.

There has been lots of amazing discussion around the evidence on the Buy Toileters and their position. There is now a superb resource for understanding the conditions of their plight and their possible options and how this could contribute to a HPC.

It would be good to have a similar resource on foreign buyers. Who are they? What are they doing? What factors are affecting them in 2016?

In particular, the question around what the Chinese will do in response to the events they are experiencing has been nagging at me in the last few days. Will they be liquidating existing investments? Will they seek a safe haven in London property?

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My guess is the smart money see London as a safe haven ..in the same way preppers see beans and guns buried in a hole so they will be sitting on it

The speculative money 10% down off plan will be left with two choices if they can finance go ahead and hope or lose the deposit

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Difficult as who is actually doing well in this current global economic climate. Nobody as far I can tell.

If the US$ keeps getting stronger maybe the Americans?

That is a bit of a stretch? even for me.

I think this sucker is going down.

The thing about London is you might keep something which is better than 100% of Nothing.

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Dont forget that they might be charged with the higher stamp duty?

RIsing US rates, will make other countries follow asap, so hopefully there wont be much credit flying around.

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My guess is the smart money see London as a safe haven ..in the same way preppers see beans and guns buried in a hole so they will be sitting on it

The speculative money 10% down off plan will be left with two choices if they can finance go ahead and hope or lose the deposit

It's pretty much a battle now between the safe haven seekers and the speculators. I think the speculators are throwing the towel in, but despite the crazy prices London is still a draw for those desperate to move their money out of their own country.

The Russians have fallen out of the running due to oil price weakness, sanctions and the fall in the ruble against sterling.

The Saudis must be struggling with the oil weakness but with the riyal pegged to the rising dollar London prices could be getting more affordable for them.

But I think it's the Chinese who are going to swing it one way or the other. Their currency is devaluing against everything else and it's difficult for them to get money offshore but there's a massive incentive to get it out due to their goverment's crackdown on corruption. Then you have Osborne opening up the UK to the Chinese e.g. making it easier for them to get visas as pointed out by another poster today.

At least now we don't have the speculators and safe haveners pulling in the same direction, and as time goes by hopefully the latter will see London is not necessarily that safe after all. UK tax moves are going against them. I would love to see an empty property tax whacked on them - they could be completely milked, but Osborne's probably too worried about being seen as anti-foreign investors. If Sadiq Khan gets elected Mayor things could get interesting and I think some buyers might get spooked by some of the rhetoric that will come up during the campaign.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-flows-iif-idUSKBN0TV0R620151212

China will post record capital outflows in 2015 of more than $500 billion, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

The IIF, an authoritative tracker of emerging market capital flows, said the world's second largest economy is likely to see $150 billion in capital outflow in the fourth quarter of the year, following the third quarter's record $225 billion.

The estimate is based on trade data, Chinese banks' transactions on the behalf of clients, and changes in central bank reserves, the IIF said in the report.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207915-halifax-up-17/?p=1102858308

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jan/07/stock-markets-slide-after-china-suspends-trading-again-live-updates

Record fall in China's foreign exchange reserves

As if there wasn’t already enough to worry about, China has revealed a record drop in its foreign exchange reserves.

New data from the People’s Bank of China show that its FX reserves shrank by $107bn in December - the biggest monthly drop on record.

It suggests that China was forced to use more firepower supporting the yuan last month, as capital flows out of the Chinese economy:

This is relevant. That money is going somewhere and it wouldn't be the first time a house price bubble has been blown up from the proceeds of another. This can go on for some time yet...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207917-chinese-investorsits-starting-to-make-sense/?p=1102858230

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-home-office-launches-new-two-year-chinese-visa-pilot

Have the tories have allowed them to buy a house so they can move here ?

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Plunging oil prices have prompted the Qatari owner of 1 Cabot Square — the Canary Wharf home of Credit Suisse — to put it on the market for £450 million and the turmoil could prompt even more deals, experts said.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/qatar-to-sell-canary-wharf-property-as-oil-price-slides-a3151811.html

havehonorcomrade_answer_1_xlarge.jpeg

Bit of a puff piece at the end of the article predicting that volatility in the region will result in others seeking a safe haven, but that is merely a prediction. Fact is, someone has been forced to sell.

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havehonorcomrade_answer_1_xlarge.jpeg

Bit of a puff piece at the end of the article predicting that volatility in the region will result in others seeking a safe haven, but that is merely a prediction. Fact is, someone has been forced to sell.

How much can something be bid up on the basis it is a "safe haven" before it becomes no longer "safe"?

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