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reddog

Key Economic Indicator: Apple Cuts Iphone Production

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Everyone's got one ( or similar ). No one needs a new one. No one can afford a new one.

My granny only bought one phone in her life, it lasted 40 years.

gpo-700-series-telephone%201.jpg

Welcome to the real recovery

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Certainly in the UK it is a cyclical thing.

There is a huge launch (the 6), they sell millions of the things, and everyone is locked into an 18 month contract. The 6s comes along, and while it is coveted, no one is going to pay for another contract to get it. The 7 will be huge again - 2 years or so after the 6. Other countries are probably the same.

The only reason I have a 6s is that work pays for it.

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Maybe people are starting to realise that iPhone's are over priced tat that break if you so much as look at them in the wrong tone of voice.

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Certainly in the UK it is a cyclical thing.

There is a huge launch (the 6), they sell millions of the things, and everyone is locked into an 18 month contract. The 6s comes along, and while it is coveted, no one is going to pay for another contract to get it. The 7 will be huge again - 2 years or so after the 6. Other countries are probably the same.

The only reason I have a 6s is that work pays for it.

Helped a girl backup data, and then wipe everything, before handing back their 5s. This 6s is thinner but much bigger screen. They're wishing they could have stuck to 5s. 6s seems just too much - too big. Paid the extra for memory upgrade from basic, what with it coming with a higher quality camera. Also what's all the photos about. You click a photo and it plays 2 seconds of video. I guess it means you can decide which moment of that segment you want for your pic.

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I think the far eastern newcomers are taking market share. Wiko, Huawai, etc.

Those that still think it's fine to get the latest Apple as part of a £40/mo contract will still hanker after Apple.

Many others will go with the competition. Especially if they can get similar performance for about 1/3 of the price of an Iphone.

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Certainly in the UK it is a cyclical thing.

There is a huge launch (the 6), they sell millions of the things, and everyone is locked into an 18 month contract. The 6s comes along, and while it is coveted, no one is going to pay for another contract to get it. The 7 will be huge again - 2 years or so after the 6. Other countries are probably the same.

The only reason I have a 6s is that work pays for it.

I take your point that in the UK the non-s model is more popular because it is the new shape.

But I think until now in the UK and world wide sales would continue to rise for the S because of more and more "emerging middle-class" being able to afford it.

If sales are stabilising (the world needs growth to pay debts not stabilisation) or going backwards, this is a good sign.

(Of course the market may have just moved on, but I think the iPhone is still a status symbol in emerging markets, and even 'the west')

Edited by reddog

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Shorter product life cycle meets longer retail contract.

At some point, like all growth businesses, AAPL will/must morph into a "utility" type business, unless it can maintain high margin new product lines.

Nice chart in this article of increasing speed of product take up over last 100 years.

https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/

It took decades for the telephone to reach 50% of households, beginning before 1900. It took five years or less for cellphones to accomplish the same penetration in 1990. As you can see from the chart, innovations introduced more recently are being adopted more quickly. By analogy, firms with competitive advantages in those areas will need to move faster to capture those opportunities that present themselves.
Edited by R K

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Certainly in the UK it is a cyclical thing.

There is a huge launch (the 6), they sell millions of the things, and everyone is locked into an 18 month contract. The 6s comes along, and while it is coveted, no one is going to pay for another contract to get it. The 7 will be huge again - 2 years or so after the 6. Other countries are probably the same.

The only reason I have a 6s is that work pays for it.

Certainly?

In that case you'll have facts to back your opinion up.

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Nobody wants one because their current devices are 'good enough': http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/01/05/want_new_smartphone_laptop_tablet_no/

Plus we don't see the massive increases in performance or new features from generation to generation now, just incremental improvements.​

Applepay could be huge.

More secure than chip & pin/contactless cards

Only available on latest iphones unless you have an iwatch.

Edited by R K

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Surely Applepay is significantly less secure than contactless? Contactless can only be read by being in close proximity to the card, Applepay can be broken in the same way, over the Internet, by stealing the phone.

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Certainly?

In that case you'll have facts to back your opinion up.

Was thinking the same thing, it isn't as if everyone signed up to their first contract at the same time so we're on the same cycle. Plus some are on 12 month, others 18, others 24 (and monthly). Some buy outright and go sim only, loads of different options.

Apple must be close to jumping the shark. They've done a good job of locking people into their ecosystem but consumers surely must get annoyed at being price gouged, at every opportunity, eventually.

I'll stick to my £200 phone that also does the job of a tablet and eReader on a £10 per month contract.

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Applepay could be huge.

More secure than chip & pin/contactless cards

Only available on latest iphones unless you have an iwatch.

But it isn't as if shops will stop using methods of payment, "sorry, Applepay only here". Seems a sure fire way to lose a load of business.

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You can buy an adequate smart phone for £30....pay as you go, disabling data, just calls, texts and a camera thrown it.... very cheap.

You can buy almost all calls except premium inc all mobiles up to 1 hour in duration (59 mins put down phone and call again) 24/7 for less than £10 pm, landline.

Edited by winkie

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But it isn't as if shops will stop using methods of payment, "sorry, Applepay only here". Seems a sure fire way to lose a load of business.

But do you want to be serving high margin customers daft enough to buy new iphones or half a dozen Winkies, quibbling over the smallest trivialities?

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I wouldnt use an android pay system. I trust AAPL more than I trust, say, my bank.

I wouldn't use a pay system, I trust the cash in my pocket. ;)

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I wouldn't use a pay system, I trust the cash in my pocket. ;)

good for you. Not sure what that has to do with AAPL or smart phones though.

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good for you. Not sure what that has to do with AAPL or smart phones though.

.......all smart phones imo are much of a muchness........when you said pay system, I thought you were talking about making payments and transfers using cashless mobile payments........something I will not be doing however inconvenient they try and make using cash become...... ;)

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Was thinking the same thing, it isn't as if everyone signed up to their first contract at the same time so we're on the same cycle. Plus some are on 12 month, others 18, others 24 (and monthly). Some buy outright and go sim only, loads of different options.

Apple must be close to jumping the shark. They've done a good job of locking people into their ecosystem but consumers surely must get annoyed at being price gouged, at every opportunity, eventually.

I'll stick to my £200 phone that also does the job of a tablet and eReader on a £10 per month contract.

I had a Windows 640 XL for six months until I dropped it and cracked the screen. The battery is awesome (2 days with quite a bit if surfing) however it isn't financially viable to fix so I've bought myself a new Samsung Galaxy S5 for £230 off eBay. S6s can be had for a massive discount now as well.

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I had a Windows 640 XL for six months until I dropped it and cracked the screen. The battery is awesome (2 days with quite a bit if surfing) however it isn't financially viable to fix so I've bought myself a new Samsung Galaxy S5 for £230 off eBay. S6s can be had for a massive discount now as well.

Name dropper. ;)

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