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Killer Bunny

Would You Buy If Prices Fell 25%? If Not, Why Not?

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For me, it would depend on what else is going on?

QE?

GDP?

Other opportunities with cash?

If I thought they'd not much further to fall? Maybe in Wales, N Ireland, some North etc

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Yes I would. I'm in SE on Sussex coast, been renting for 20 years. 25% drop would allow me to buy nice 3 bed semi with 3 times salary mortgage.

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Do you rent out your Hiace? Always wanted to holiday in one of those. But to hire the prices are just fantastic, in a bad way

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Surely this depends on where you are. In London, that would be consistent with prices at the turn of 2013/14. I didn't think it was a good idea to buy then at those prices and I haven't changed my mind since then. However, if prices in the NE fell by another 25% and I was looking to live there, that might be a different matter.

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Do you rent out your Hiace? Always wanted to holiday in one of those. But to hire the prices are just fantastic, in a bad way

Unfortunately we don't own one... Just liked one we hired in Oz for a few months

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Well i`m in wales and would be in like flynn @-25% and would probably be seriously considering @10-15% if it looked like there was not much downside left to go

Where i am and the part of the market i would be looking at 25% would be back to 2002-3 nominal prices, i`m guessing but that would be around -50% real price ?

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It's a good question.

In Northants where I was looking the asking prices are pretty much 50% more than they should be, so 25% is now, not even close.

In west midlands, where we migth buy now 25% off then we'd go for it.

In the S.E. would nee to be 60%+ now to make any kind of sense.

The options for us really are:

1) Retire and live in Spain ( rent )

2) Semi-Retire and live in the Uk 6-9 months of the year and Spain/France rest of year. ( rent )

or...

3) Buy a rotten dilapidated, damp, cold, badly located, expensive to heat, taxed into the ground family home.

Which would you choose ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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P.S. I'd also need to see a total change of policy/mind set in the UK.

The bankers need regulated, people need to realise the housing ponzi is bad for society.

Nothing will change unless people learn a hard lesson.

If nothing changes,it's best to get out while the getting is good.

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2) Semi-Retire and live in the Uk 6-9 months of the year and Spain/France rest of year. ( rent )

That's the sensible choice for me now.

It makes little financial sense, even at 25% off the silly prices I see today, to buy a house in the UK.

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Not necessarily.

Edit to expand a little it would not really make a 'no brainer' value case to me in the areas I watch and am mindful that better job opportunities may arise elsewhere so dunno really.

At least it would bring the option to the table for serious consideration whereas at present it is not really justifiable on a financial basis alone.

Edited by The Knimbies who say No

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Seems to me 20-25% was the crash of 2008 - halted by bank bailouts and ZIRP

So 20-25% could well be on the cards in the next Recession, which I have publicly forecast as probable 2016/17. The Bond Mkt is ...just about there. So not yet confirmed but close.

Property will be good value outside SE with 25% off.

You'd wait if a) you thought prices had MUCH further to drop and/or b ) you thought there'd be no bounce for years.

On verra.

I take one thing back from OP. QE does nothing for house prices outside of London. So I wouldn't bring that into my thinking much.

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P.S. I'd also need to see a total change of policy/mind set in the UK.

The bankers need regulated, people need to realise the housing ponzi is bad for society.

B0llocks. They need to be told they will never again be bailed out. They would then regulate themselves to much much lower lending.

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It's a good question.

In Northants where I was looking the asking prices are pretty much 50% more than they should be, so 25% is now, not even close.

In west midlands, where we migth buy now 25% off then we'd go for it.

In the S.E. would nee to be 60%+ now to make any kind of sense.

The options for us really are:

1) Retire and live in Spain ( rent )

2) Semi-Retire and live in the Uk 6-9 months of the year and Spain/France rest of year. ( rent )

or...

3) Buy a rotten dilapidated, damp, cold, badly located, expensive to heat, taxed into the ground family home.

Which would you choose ?

Well that's the problem to some extent on here there are massive disparities between personal views depending on what part of the market and where in the country they are looking

I think by the end of this parliament with the minimum wage @ the best part of £10 phr a 10-15% drop would see the bottom end of the market in large parts of the country back to somewhere near affordable for the typical FTB but leave other parts looking like it has not even scratched the surface

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I wouldn't look at a fall in % terms. I would look at the average size of house available in the area and if it is available to buy at 3-4 times of local average earnings. Until then, bugger off!

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  1. Home are ALREADY AFFORDABLE, if you believe the housing minister

    This Govt is getting Britain building so more hardworking people can buy affordable homes #OwnYourHome http://buff.ly/1O0eBEo

    5:55 AM - 4 Jan 2016 · Details
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  2. @BrandonLewis Don't you mean, so more idiots can take on unsustainable levels of debt to buy un-affordable homes ? #PullTheOtherOne

    5:56 AM - 4 Jan 2016 · Details
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I'm in an absolutely bonkers party of the south East.

I would consider buying a building plot at 25% off current prices where I am. At 33% off I'd definitely bite. So yes - sort of. What is build would be a world away from identikit crap - from reclaimed materials and modern tech and probably would be cheap to build, easy to maintain and damn good.

Existing crappy houses - I really now have a very strong preference for self building when it comes to the time to buy - well I would consider buying at 40% off current prices - though I still consider those very expensive and poor value. At 50% off I would go for it grudgingly.

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That's the sensible choice for me now.

It makes little financial sense, even at 25% off the silly prices I see today, to buy a house in the UK.

The problem is that if prices did drop 25%, the sterling depreciation would make houses/living costs look more expensive for you abroad.

Gidiot Osbanker has gone 'all in' on HPI.

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The problem is that if prices did drop 25%, the sterling depreciation would make houses/living costs look more expensive for you abroad.

You're making a lot of assumptions as to currency, method or wealth storage etc.

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Gidiot Osbanker has gone 'all in' on HPI.

So did Brown...and that ended well.

The Tories got re-elected, they played their only trump card.

It's now causing immense damage, the best thing we can have is Cameron to stand down and Osborne to take the hot seat a la Bliar and Broon.

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I'd buy if prices fell 20%.

The trouble I had in 2008-2010 when we seriously considered buying was, despite a 20%+ drop in prices locally according to the land reg, no one was really selling, the good homes never really sold at all just sat there at 2007 prices ad infinitum. The "people" were saved due to (government owned ) bank forbearance.

Might as well forget buying until something really gives.

And give it will.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The options for us really are:

1) Retire and live in Spain ( rent )

2) Semi-Retire and live in the Uk 6-9 months of the year and Spain/France rest of year. ( rent )

or...

3) Buy a rotten dilapidated, damp, cold, badly located, expensive to heat, taxed into the ground family home.

Which would you choose ?

Buy no 3 in UK, rent it out and use the income to rent a nice place in Spain/France. ;)

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I'm in London so there'd need to be a 40-50% drop for me to really consider it. We're giving it another couple of years and if nothing really changes by then we'll be looking at emigrating.

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