jiltedjen Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 so a 0.25% drop must be priced in now. Anything else will be quite a big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 I'm usually wrong about these things, but I just can't see them lowering rates tomorrow by a measly 25 bps.They could lower them by 0.5%. Carney has been waiting for a good excuse to justify such a move... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 What Time is the announcement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 What Time is the announcement?Midday I believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wahoo Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 I reckon he'll hold as there's insufficient economic data yet to make a decision. Expect FTSE to drop if no announcement today. Otherwise a bull run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 They could lower them by 0.5%. Carney has been waiting for a good excuse to justify such a move... Oh indeed - re: the excuse....and if he does drop to true zip that would be Carney all over. However, I don't think he has the evidence to do so in any way at the moment to justify it. Sterling's immediate drop after the vote wasn't *that* bad.....it'd had been wavering between 1.40-1.49 anyway, and dropped to 1.36. The markets - well they are the markets. They love volatility. It was his immediate words that caused the pound to plunge further....'robust defence of the economy', QE etc. At this point though the markets are looking very tidy indeed. Sterling is as 1.30 already. I know that they are pricing in the rate cut....but it is such an unhealthy signal to send it has a large chance of backfiring when people ask...'where's the data to back this move up?' It's too soon to make any sort of bold move. Next month ... who knows? He'll twist anything to get to NIRP. Anyway as always I'll be proved wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 However, I don't think he has the evidence to do so in any way at the moment to justify it. Sterling's immediate drop after the vote wasn't *that* bad.....it'd had been wavering between 1.40-1.49 anyway, and dropped to 1.36. The markets - well they are the markets. They love volatility.Indeed.Lots of talk about how the £ is down from $1.50 before the vote result. That rate was just in the last hours when Remain was looking like it had won. It's spent most of this year around $1.40. The US increase in interest rates at the end of last year had a bigger impact on the exchange rate than Brexit has. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 With inflation so low (excluding house prices!!!), there's arguably scope for a cut to 0%. The bank should be targeting inflation at 2% and lower IRs will help that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AC44 Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 With inflation so low (excluding house prices!!!), there's arguably scope for a cut to 0%. The bank should be targeting inflation at 2% and lower IRs will help that. inflations is not low. Do not forget that CPI -does not include housing costs which is the main cost for most households -it is an average inflation. During 2003-20013 ONS showed that CPI for low incomes was almost 150% more than the average CPI -Essentials inflation is much higher than the CPI. When CPI reached 5% , essentials inflation index calculted that essentials inflation was near 8%.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 inflations is not low. Do not forget that CPI -does not include housing costs which is the main cost for most households -it is an average inflation. During 2003-20013 ONS showed that CPI for low incomes was almost 150% more than the average CPI -Essentials inflation is much higher than the CPI. When CPI reached 5% , essentials inflation index calculted that essentials inflation was near 8%.. The two are connected in a way. Yes, cost of a roof over our head has gone up with rents/mortgages/utilities rising faster than wages for many years. And that has driven down grocery costs (34 months in a row FALLING cost of groceries). Zero sum game when we have a painfully finite number of pounds in our paypacket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 (edited) Dominic Frisby has a good article on Moneyweek where he mentions Carney. He says that Carney strikes him as someone who wants to be proved right - I agree here - about his doom & gloom predictions for the UK if we BREXIT. So perhaps, arguably, he is bringing about the crisis conditions that he warned of. If they lower by 0.25% the BBC will be full of how dire the UK economy is because the BOE HAD to reduce rates, blah, blah, blah and, in the same breadth, they would be ramping house prices. Edit: So I think they will go ahead and cut because, well, he is a one trick pony IMPO. Edited July 14, 2016 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 A lot of stocks are giving back their first hour ramp now. Still up but not as much as the first hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Today: 0.25% base rate, FTSE rally, pound down. Predictable as fu3k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Wel, the Pound is up at the moment and could be turning down now. Be interesting if it drops substantially or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 I'm an expat who voted Brexit, even with the threat of deportation, excommunication and whatever else was fearfully projected. Around referendum time, I moved from Cyprus to Poland for a change of scenery. The pound would have to more than halve in value my cost of living to be anything like as expensive as in the UK. As it happens, it has dropped to 5.2 zloty to the £ from 5.5, but now creeping back. I went shopping yesterday. Pack of butter 2 zl. Tomatoes 3.75 a kilo. Loaf of bread 2.7 slot. And so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Building a base around 13350. Resistance is around 13500-13600, we hit 13500 on the spike on the news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 So we stalled at 13500. Interesting junction here, look for either a probe lower then a drop to new lows, or a probe lower and a bounce back through 13500!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulParanoia Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 So we stalled at 13500. Interesting junction here, look for either a probe lower then a drop to new lows, or a probe lower and a bounce back through 13500!! So you're basically saying ... it could go either way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AC44 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 Thought I should ressurect this. What is the floor of this crash? And at what point will BoE intervene? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noallegiance Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, AC44 said: Thought I should ressurect this. What is the floor of this crash? And at what point will BoE intervene? £0.01 Never Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I wonder if they will be selling 100 Trillion £ notes for 119$ soon? http://banknoteworld.com/shop/Zimbabwe-100-Trillion-Dollars-2008-P-91-UNC-Replacement-Star-PMG-66-EPQ.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AC44 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 it would be interesting if we hear the government pushing the envelope to BoE about this mess. That would be a game-changer.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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