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2016 Predictions Thread


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I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

The answer depends on what people would consider to be a HPC?. A 5% fall would cause Daily Mail headlines of a Crash, but in reality this would only undo about 5 quarters increases in many areas, and is well within the "noise" of asking price to offer range.

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Me. I forecast already prices down 5-10%.

According to the "predictions" table on the home page you predicted a 40-50% crash in Oct 2010

Jonathan Davis N/A Oct 2010 arrow-down.gif 40-50 % UK 2007-2013 icon-tick.gif

New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.

Is your new forecast based on the same factors?

Edited by R K
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Please mr money lender....lend me a million to buy my bedsit........MMR and disadvantages to high leveraged BTL is the beginnings of the flatline and real negative growth of overvalued property....this has to be ultimately good for everyone.....too far too fast, the breaks are slowly being applied.....new purchasers be aware, no probs if buying for the right reasons. ;)

Edited by winkie
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I would hazard a guess that it takes account of FLS and all the "help".

They should alter that as I've publically altered it - in 2009 and 2013. Prices, however, did fall nationally c 25% in the 2008 crash. Not far off the 40%. Turns out my 40% was too little - if Capitalism were allowed to happen.

I said prices would rise with bailouts and rate slashing. I said they would be flat to down after the rally in 2009 to 10 (I was wrong about PCL). I said they'd rise into the GE, the day HTB was announced on Budget 2013.

Been mildly bearish since early 2015. (Possibly earlier, can't recall exactly.) Strongly bearish for months.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

In Aberdeen, it's already starting.

My prediction would be for one or more of the big outsourcing companies like G4S, Serco, Veolia etc. to collapse due to unsustainable debt-fuelled expansion over the last few years.

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China announcing a gold reserves of over 10,000 tonnes (open for inspection), which will be used to back the Yuan would cause enough of a stir....but we can dream.

funnily enough i reckon that will happen.

china will wait out the ME situation and be fairly neutral I think...aiming for all the others engaged in the currency wars and conflicts to paper themselves out of economic existence, and bomb themselves out of commercial existence

then,when the time is right, china will disclose their true reserves, and "help" out some of the countries, in return for a huge stake in core infrastructure of it's targets- ie total ownership of food production, utilities and transport....meaning if you don't do as they tell you, you don't eat and can't heat.

basically meaning most of us will end up working for them.

the situation being planned IS actually to destroy the ME/US/UK and russia, to leave germany and china as the sole superpowers.

I don't think it will necessarily work out entirely that way, as US,UK and russia know that is the plan, I don't expect them to play ball.

Edited by oracle
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HPI 8% (may be the final blow out on the back of zirp and cheap oil)

FTSE 100 6500 (but possibly two capitulations to 5000 on the back of Brent at $30 and pre- Brexit nerves)

Pound $1.45

Gold $1100 supported by geopolitics not least Brexit and continued Middle East unrest

Brexit narrowly averted

GDP 2.3% ( possibly the loss of 0.5% because of Brext fears, would have been 2.8% on the back of cheap oil)

CPI 0.5%

Base Rates 0.5% (to try and close out HPI after the horse has bolted)

Brent $50 (picking up after Spring lows)

Not an easy year to forecast but I have got my HPI and GDP forecasts pretty spot on for several years now.

Edited by crashmonitor
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I didn't do particularly well with my 2015 predictions, not bad but no cigar.

2015 Predictions

1. No party can achieve a majority in the May elections, still less the 325 or so seats needed for a reasonably stable working majority. So two predictions, first there'll be another coalition. And secondly, despite the new fixed term parliament legislation, there'll be another election before 2020.

2. Base rates will not exceed 1% in 2015.

3. Nominal UK house prices won't move up or down by more than 2% during 2015.

4. The US dollar will continue to strengthen.

5. FTSE dominated by Eurozone developments in 2015. If Mario Draghi prevails with meaningful QE then the FTSE will top 7000, more likely he won't and the FTSE will fall below 6000 on fears of a Euro exit and subsequent break up.

6. Despite oil prices increasing in the second half of 2015 inflation will remain well below the 2% target.

Let's see if I can do better in 2016,

1. Nominal UK house prices -2% in London, +3% outside London.

2. Peak pessimism occurs in spring 2016, after that Oil, Commodities, and FTSE 100 stage small recovery ending year slightly higher than they began.

3. The US has a particularly bad tempered Hilary vs Donald election, Hilary wins (but failing health means she doesn't make a second term).

4. If there's no UK interest rate rise soon then it'll be too late to have one before the European vote in the second half of 2016. If we vote to leave then there won't be an interest rate rise at all in 2016. More likely we'll vote to stay in and there will be a single, quarter point increase in the autumn. The most obvious black swan that could overturn all this and see interest rates move up sharply is a balance of payments crisis, but on balance I don't think that will happen, at least not in 2016.

5. The tide really turns against small BTL landlords, and BTL moves towards being a big player enterprise with pension funds and big builders taking a stake.

6. China doesn't collapse, but makes progress on rebalancing and new, more modest growth rates appear secure. India becomes the new China. Russian-Western relationships slowly thaw. Brazil becomes a basket case and the IMF are forced to intervene.

7. A frontline country, maybe Mexico, maybe Columbia, throws in the towel on fighting the war against drugs for the benefit of the US and legalises all drugs.

8. UK RPI finishes 2016 at about 1%.

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I didn't do particularly well with my 2015 predictions, not bad but no cigar.

2015 Predictions

1. No party can achieve a majority in the May elections, still less the 325 or so seats needed for a reasonably stable working majority. So two predictions, first there'll be another coalition. And secondly, despite the new fixed term parliament legislation, there'll be another election before 2020.

2. Base rates will not exceed 1% in 2015.

3. Nominal UK house prices won't move up or down by more than 2% during 2015.

4. The US dollar will continue to strengthen.

5. FTSE dominated by Eurozone developments in 2015. If Mario Draghi prevails with meaningful QE then the FTSE will top 7000, more likely he won't and the FTSE will fall below 6000 on fears of a Euro exit and subsequent break up.

6. Despite oil prices increasing in the second half of 2015 inflation will remain well below the 2% target.

Let's see if I can do better in 2016,

1. Nominal UK house prices -2% in London, +3% outside London.

2. Peak pessimism occurs in spring 2016, after that Oil, Commodities, and FTSE 100 stage small recovery ending year slightly higher than they began.

3. The US has a particularly bad tempered Hilary vs Donald election, Hilary wins (but failing health means she doesn't make a second term).

4. If there's no UK interest rate rise soon then it'll be too late to have one before the European vote in the second half of 2016. If we vote to leave then there won't be an interest rate rise at all in 2016. More likely we'll vote to stay in and there will be a single, quarter point increase in the autumn. The most obvious black swan that could overturn all this and see interest rates move up sharply is a balance of payments crisis, but on balance I don't think that will happen, at least not in 2016.

5. The tide really turns against small BTL landlords, and BTL moves towards being a big player enterprise with pension funds and big builders taking a stake.

6. China doesn't collapse, but makes progress on rebalancing and new, more modest growth rates appear secure. India becomes the new China. Russian-Western relationships slowly thaw. Brazil becomes a basket case and the IMF are forced to intervene.

7. A frontline country, maybe Mexico, maybe Columbia, throws in the towel on fighting the war against drugs for the benefit of the US and legalises all drugs.

8. UK RPI finishes 2016 at about 1%.

I think no. 5 is interesting. One interpretation of the tax on BTL is to raise the barrier to entry for new players and small players. It would be a paradigm shift in the UK and perhaps move us more in line with Europe and Scandinavia where BTL doesn't really exist. Subletting though does, and in a big way.

My prediction is that residential housing purchases will fall back to about 70-80k/month as people expect a glut of BTL property into the market. The volumes will be low enough to cause prices to decline by ca. 25% over 18 months. The market will be seriously subdued but will not implode.

Edited by frozen_out
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1. A HPI figure of 3% for the year, but this masks a severe fall over the summer and autumn.

2. Cameron panics as he realises he needs to leave a legacy. Maybe he plumps for the Boris Island airport idea?

3. One of the Keiser/Roubini/Krugman crowd get a prediction right, and are hailed as the new messiah.

4. Rumours that Zero Hedge gets a prediction correct. Careful analysis shows this not to be the case. Their record of being consistently wrong is unblemished.

5. English football again disappoints. But they have the richest owners.

6. A foreigner wins Wimbledon.

7. Snow in March and/or April surprises all those with short memories.

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3. One of the Keiser/Roubini/Krugman crowd get a prediction right, and are hailed as the new messiah.

4. Rumours that Zero Hedge gets a prediction correct. Careful analysis shows this not to be the case. Their record of being consistently wrong is unblemished.

Brilliant!

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HPI 8% (may be the final blow out on the back of zirp and cheap oil)

FTSE 100 6500 (but possibly two capitulations to 5000 on the back of Brent at $30 and pre- Brexit nerves)

Pound $1.45

Gold $1100 supported by geopolitics not least Brexit and continued Middle East unrest

Brexit narrowly averted

GDP 2.3% ( possibly the loss of 0.5% because of Brext fears, would have been 2.8% on the back of cheap oil)

CPI 0.5%

Base Rates 0.5% (to try and close out HPI after the horse has bolted)

Brent $50 (picking up after Spring lows)

Not an easy year to forecast but I have got my HPI and GDP forecasts pretty spot on for several years now.

I noticed the accuracy of the HP forecasts and therefore was hoping not to read HPI 8% for 2016! Oh well good things come to those who wait so they say

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People squeezed a little more, but still no HPC outside of those areas already marginal/experiencing declines. The London insanity continues.

VR will come close to being a big thing, but ultimately current capabilities will struggle to find an application outside of gaming and therefore, it won't have the same momentum as mobile did. 2020 perhaps.

Solar will survive and perhaps even thrive the feed-in tariff cuts. In fact, I reckon it'll get even cheaper to install. Perhaps a sub £4K domestic install.

Major cyber attack makes the idea of a cyber cold war mainstream.

I agree with others on Trump getting the republican candidacy. The guy is like a vortex sucking in all of the publicity.

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Past year..

* Oil prices collapsing

* Metal prices collapsing(copper most importantly for me)

* Car prices falling

* consumer goods mostly falling

* Food prices still outstanding(that's my view)

* Holiday prices lower

World growth is struggling, China major concerns, EU has a huge comic cartoon weight weighing 1 million tons suspended by rope with 1 million tons and 1 ounce hanging over it that will snap at any time. Worlds downtrodden are now heading for EU with UK a popular destination..

All this and more and somehow in a prices falling dangerous world house prices and renting are being kept sky high. And David Cameron's answer is to get FTB's in incredible dangerous debt often helped by the taxpayer and then wants them to feel grateful for it.

Nobody knows how this madness is going to materialize into a collapse, it could be anyone of a dozen things that will take just one to finally give in in order to see the rest follow. My betting is on anther Banking crisis or even failure to fix the last one properly, but Hey! who knows

It's the valueless economy. Metals have become so cheap it's barely worth digging it, oil has become so cheap it's barely worth drilling it, China has screwed basic commodity chemicals to the point where some basic feedstocks are more valuable than the products they make, production gas become so efficient that it's easier to make money on the loans that allow people to buy a car.

At some point all of this will unwind, but how or when is anyone's guess.

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