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2016 Predictions Thread


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On the contrary surely? Whilst the media claim no rate rises as far as the eye can see, if recent Sterling weakening continues......that would provide exactly the sort of fatuous excuse Carney would use as to why they increase rates - to defend the pound!

With our current account deficit there is little rationale to "save the pound" at these levels.

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In Q1, house prices will increase by 2%. Sales volumes to OO's will fall but this will be masked by sales by prescient (to be generous) BTLers to those trying to beat the SDLT hike. Annual HPI will be running at 7.2% and ramping will be rife, with the ONS prediction of 6% HPI during 2016 touted a lot.


In April, sales volumes will fall off a cliff, and prices will drop by 1.9%, wiping out all of the gains in Q1. The rampers will go quiet. During the rest of Q2, prices will remain static as sellers refuse to drop prices further, leaving annual HPI at 3.5% by the end of the quarter. Talk will be of "house price growth slowing" and the ONS will slash their forecast for 2016 to 4%.


During Q3, panic will start to spread through the BTL market and those needing to get out of the market before 2017 will start slashing asking prices. Prices will decline by a further 2% during the quarter and annual HPI will be at at -1.32% in September 2016. The ONS will slash their forecast again to 2%, but they'll be starting to look a bit stupid to the common man. Osborne will expand HTB.


In Q4, talk of an impending crash will start to go mainstream and we will start to see a full blown HPC, with price declines accelerating to 3% on the quarter. Annual HPI will be at -4.98% at the end of the year. Official predictions for 2017 will be 1% HPI, but everybody will know 2017 will be carnage.

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My guesses:

Oil price to hit new lows around March 16 once Iranian supply fully hits the market.

Gold and silver to continue their slide until late in the year as deflationary forces continue to bite. Setting up 2017 to be a good year for PMs.

Minimal to zero inflation for the year, the prescription of more debt to prop the system up begins to fall away as we see the start of a new deleveraging.

London real estate to stagnate for the year. 3-4% gains averaged across the rest of the U.K.

UK GDP growth to slow to 1.2% for the year. Immigration to run at around 330,000 net, lowering GDP/capita.

Fears of recession to surface toward end of year. A large scale bankruptcy. Osborne missing deficit commitments, confidence in UK government wanes as economy turns down and deficit still high.

2017 to be a blood bath. 2016 a year of "extend and pretend" but with problems beginning to surface for the masses to begin to wake up to.

Edited by SillyBilly
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The Chilcot report will come out (finally) around Easter time perhaps and Tony Blair will be put on trial for war crimes......sorry the last part is pure fantasy....

Property and other assets will tank especially at the top end :)

I think issues in the ME will be prominent and are likely to drive events in the west.

Oil prices and the associated knock on effects in KSA that will be experiencing further internal issues...especially if their elderly and unwell King dies at sometime in the year.

Our involvement in Syria will escalate (thats what TPTB have been after over the last four years anyhow) and the Chilcot report will be suppressed to avoid further delay in the western powers "playing with our toys in the sand".

Inflation will be released to pay for the war....we are already seeing a need for much more defence spending without a major war kicking off.

The western economies are a house of cards and the jolt will come from this part of the world IMHO...the economic and political energy that has been stored up there is immense and will not be released gently...its not if but when this area blows up out of control.

Knock on events in the UK cant really be guessed at but will be severe.

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GO will continue to turn the screw on BTL. HTB & RTB will continue to prop up the HPI.

EU negotiations will deliver nominal concessions that will need several years to phase in, giving Cameron a token victory.

The plebs will continue to be placated with bread & circuses (benefits & Strictly cum X Factor in the Jungle on ice). Euro 16 & the Royals will generate a 'feel good factor' for a while.

The West will continue to meddle in parts of the world we don't understand. The Fed will raise rates at an exact rate of 0.25% every 6 years, next adjustment in 2021... Carney will continue to prevaricate. This will help GO as he continues to miss his deficit reduction targets 'because of instability caused by ISIL/Russia/Europe/China/Everyone else not us'.

Saving will continue to yield nothing. Corbyn will survive the year but Labour will start to resemble Lord of the Flies.

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I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

I think that unlike 07/08, we now know that they will throw any amount of money and resources at holding up the house of cards.

Only when it drifts beyond their control will HPC come. And come it will, but who knows when.

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I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

Me. I forecast already prices down 5-10%.

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I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

I still very much believe in HPC.

If the UK were left as a closed system, immune from any outside effects then the HPI would continue as we have seen.

However this is not the case and an incident outside of TPTB control will bring it all crashing down.

Its a house of cards waiting to fail and we have only got away with it so far due to the fact that the rest of the world is as f**ked as we are.

China announcing a gold reserves of over 10,000 tonnes (open for inspection), which will be used to back the Yuan would cause enough of a stir....but we can dream.

I also believe that some rather powerful interests are spoiling for a fight in Syria and the surrounding area, a sort of CTRL+ALT+DEL moment for the west.

UK HPI will not survive this sort of global upheaval.

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Expect the blowback from debt-fuelled growth elsewhere in the world leading to issues in emerging economies excluding India; foreign buyers sell property in UK to raise capital or pay debts in their home countries.

Causes knock on effect in addition to BTL guys selling up slowly and interest rates rising. Wages stagnate or conditions worsen (longer hours)

HPI peddled in the media until a slight trickle and then an almighty avalanche of descending house prices and victim sob stories from poor landlords.

"They said it couldn't happen, but figures just last month reveal house prices fell for the first time"

Cue loads of programmes and calls for the Gov/BOE to please think of the children. Carney doesn't give a fook; he knows it has to happen. Prices fall.

Cameron descends into madness.

This year will be like the prequel before the first episode of HPC in 2017.

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