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EmmaRoid

Apology To Bland Unsight

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I just wanted to say sorry for originally doubting that after all this time, someone somewhere would take real measures that go some way to addressing the imbalances present in the housing market vis a vis, OO vs. BTL. Who knows where it will lead but if recent changes had been proposed years ago we'd certainly had said, "ok let's see what happens". I didn't believe that there would be political traction behind these types of measures. Sure there's plenty more that could be done but we now seem to have a start.

Lest of all that George Osborne would be signing it off. So let's drink this Christmas to George and Bland. And Mark Carney who you used to say had an eye on BTL lending long before actions became realistic.

Cheers.

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Demographics always said it would happen but i for sure never seen it coming from George (hoped yes) as for the financial risk i never had a clue and thought Carney was just being "vigilant" again but looking naively at the reports it certainly looks like the banks need saving from themselves

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I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1.

There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works.

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I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1.

There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works.

So what do you suggest?

You've recently bought in Australia, to rent it out. Be happy. Enjoy. Imo, some significant upper end HPC here, and ideally, and hardest HPC of all time there. Generational HPC. Happy times.

At least Osborne launched into the BTLers in July budget/Autumn Statement with specific focus on BTLers squeezing out younger people..

In order to stem the number of wannabe-landlords and second-homers, stamp duty paid on the purchase of property will be increased from next April.

He said ‘more and more homes are being bought as buy-to-lets or second homes’ and ‘many of them are cash purchases that aren’t affected by the restrictions I introduced in the Budget on mortgage interest relief; and many of them are bought people who aren’t resident in this country’.

‘Frankly, people buying a home to let should not be squeezing out families who can’t afford to buy a home,’ said Osborne.

‘So I am introducing new rates of stamp duty that will be 3% higher on the purchase of additional properties like buy-to-lets and second homes.

http://citywire.co.uk/money/osborne-landlord-tax-to-pay-for-400000-new-homes/a862836

There is also the implied £Trillions in profit from HPC and fresh lending in volume. All those houses owned ouright not earning banks any money, and many who did own outright tempted into BTL recent years. Votes too. A corporate or two doesn't vote in millions. And oldie core-voters with their long-wave HPI don't have quite as much power as they believe. BTLer 'core-voters' finding that out recently.

Edited by Venger

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Demographics always said it would happen but i for sure never seen it coming from George (hoped yes) as for the financial risk i never had a clue and thought Carney was just being "vigilant" again but looking naively at the reports it certainly looks like the banks need saving from themselves

Yup, thank you George, now just finish of the HTB and other inflationary "Helps" and I will vote for you.

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Yup, thank you George, now just finish of the HTB and other inflationary "Helps" and I will vote for you.

That's an interesting point.

Would we all now vote tory if they do the right thing and collapse house prices ?

Id go back to not voting

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1.

There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works.

Current prices are inflated relative to rents. To enter the market, prospective institutional landlords would either have to buy existing properties at inflated prices or buy land at inflated prices to build on. If there is no drop in prices, it would not make sense for them to enter the market through either of these routes.

Hotairmail has the political analysis spot on. Osborne wants to be PM by 2020. He's not as thick as Brown and doesn't believe that he can abolish the business cycle, so he'll need all the help he can get.

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It's not voting for them that might have given them pause for thought re house prices (emphasis on the word might - a lot remains to be seen). They've only got a slim majority after all.

If anyone should be drinking to Osborne and Carney at this point in time it's the bankers.

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Who knows where it will lead but if recent changes had been proposed years ago we'd certainly had said, "ok let's see what happens". I didn't believe that there would be political traction behind these types of measures. Sure there's plenty more that could be done but we now seem to have a start.

Firstly, no apology necessary. I was as stunned as everyone else when Osborne actually did something. I think this thread shows what a lot of rubbish the idea of hpc groupthink usually is. Firstly it stems from posters taking different perspectives on straws in the wind in the past and one of the things being discussed is different perspectives on the political motivations behind and likely outcomes of changes that are now working their way through the system.

What always tickles me is that I did get a bit of stick for suggesting that Osborne was the patron saint of hpc compared to Gordon Brown, and then about a week later Osborne lands Clause 24 on Busta-move's plate. I really didn't think suggesting he was better than Brown was contentious or much of a compliment, but I've always considered HTB schemes smaller beer compared to allowing the normalisation of self-certified interest-only lending at very high loan-to-value to the owner-occupied sector and the facilitating the expansion of the BTL sector, by dint of a failure to regulate, from nothing to 10% of the CML loan book in just ten years. I'm not sure what Osborne would have to do to change my assessment of his role in housing to worse than Brown, and I don't care to think about it!

Anyway, now that St Jude, patron saint of lost causes and cases despaired of has decamped to PovertyLater, we'll need a new one. Hopefully Carney can make a bid for the job via the implementation of the BCBS risk-weights. Fingers crossed.

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Tempting thought.

However, whether it is now or later as the numbers stack ever higher, they will try to resurrect the 'homeowning democracy' or this country is toast for them. They need to align the interests of the little people to their rich landordly mates. That requires home ownership whilst leaving some on the table for their mates....not the wholesale transfer over.

For me it's macro views like this that contribute the easiest to understand analysis of the situation.

Osbourne knows that every house sold to a BTL is a house not sold to an owner occupied tory voter. Similarly with the public sector job cull. We've talked on here about cutting the deficit being about ideology rather than sound economics. In fact it's more about the Tories knowing that public sector workers are more likely to vote Labour, cull the public sector workers and you cull the opposition vote.

The other macro view which i've seen that draws my attention is the shift in sentiment regarding BTL in general and the general anger being displayed re the housing situation. I don't know whether this is being politically manufactured or not, but it seems to me that every other day there is a story in the Rage about how terrible the housing situation is ... whether the celebration of high house prices is completely at an end I think we are some time away from yet ... I think a lot of people realise that something needs to be done, but those dependent on or have made significant gains from high prices are going to be extremely reluctant to admit what is necessary. The point is though the warning flags are there and have been there for some time. People choose to ignore them at their peril.

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I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1.

There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works.

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I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1.

There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works.

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Wow, the OP starts a nice positive thread and look what you lot all do to it!

Happy Christmas

It doesn't matter.

I can just recall BU telling us what GO/MC was thinking 18 months ago and asking how the ****** do you know? Are you him? So I don't buy it.

Roll on a long time, low and behold, look what's happened.

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Phase 1 crash the prices

Phase 2 buy it all up

Phase 3 set off another bubble

Yes, I'm afraid I still remain pretty cynical as to the motivations/end game of Osbourne.

I strongly suspect BTL/short tenancies was originally intended to make life easier for the traditional landlording classes - not to encourage the average pleb to get into the same game of living off the efforts of other plebs. High house prices don't benefit the rich as they aren't planning on selling.

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Osbourne knows that every house sold to a BTL is a house not sold to an owner occupied tory voter.

Also is likely to take the house out of the market long term as LL's tend not to sell, just MEW! Less repeat stamp duty for Mr. O.

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Yes, I'm afraid I still remain pretty cynical as to the motivations/end game of Osbourne.

I strongly suspect BTL/short tenancies was originally intended to make life easier for the traditional landlording classes - not to encourage the average pleb to get into the same game of living off the efforts of other plebs. High house prices don't benefit the rich as they aren't planning on selling.

Agreed. High house prices actually hurt the rich who are trying to build up a long term income stream. They want low prices and hence higher yields.

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