19 year mortgage 8itch Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I just wanted to say sorry for originally doubting that after all this time, someone somewhere would take real measures that go some way to addressing the imbalances present in the housing market vis a vis, OO vs. BTL. Who knows where it will lead but if recent changes had been proposed years ago we'd certainly had said, "ok let's see what happens". I didn't believe that there would be political traction behind these types of measures. Sure there's plenty more that could be done but we now seem to have a start. Lest of all that George Osborne would be signing it off. So let's drink this Christmas to George and Bland. And Mark Carney who you used to say had an eye on BTL lending long before actions became realistic. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Demographics always said it would happen but i for sure never seen it coming from George (hoped yes) as for the financial risk i never had a clue and thought Carney was just being "vigilant" again but looking naively at the reports it certainly looks like the banks need saving from themselves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1. There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'd like to apologies to all those people I have wrongly accused of being a troll. All 2 of them. The rest can **** off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1. There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works. So what do you suggest? You've recently bought in Australia, to rent it out. Be happy. Enjoy. Imo, some significant upper end HPC here, and ideally, and hardest HPC of all time there. Generational HPC. Happy times. At least Osborne launched into the BTLers in July budget/Autumn Statement with specific focus on BTLers squeezing out younger people.. In order to stem the number of wannabe-landlords and second-homers, stamp duty paid on the purchase of property will be increased from next April. He said ‘more and more homes are being bought as buy-to-lets or second homes’ and ‘many of them are cash purchases that aren’t affected by the restrictions I introduced in the Budget on mortgage interest relief; and many of them are bought people who aren’t resident in this country’. ‘Frankly, people buying a home to let should not be squeezing out families who can’t afford to buy a home,’ said Osborne. ‘So I am introducing new rates of stamp duty that will be 3% higher on the purchase of additional properties like buy-to-lets and second homes. http://citywire.co.uk/money/osborne-landlord-tax-to-pay-for-400000-new-homes/a862836 There is also the implied £Trillions in profit from HPC and fresh lending in volume. All those houses owned ouright not earning banks any money, and many who did own outright tempted into BTL recent years. Votes too. A corporate or two doesn't vote in millions. And oldie core-voters with their long-wave HPI don't have quite as much power as they believe. BTLer 'core-voters' finding that out recently. Edited December 23, 2015 by Venger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automotive Engineer Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Demographics always said it would happen but i for sure never seen it coming from George (hoped yes) as for the financial risk i never had a clue and thought Carney was just being "vigilant" again but looking naively at the reports it certainly looks like the banks need saving from themselves Yup, thank you George, now just finish of the HTB and other inflationary "Helps" and I will vote for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) Yup, thank you George, now just finish of the HTB and other inflationary "Helps" and I will vote for you. That's an interesting point. Would we all now vote tory if they do the right thing and collapse house prices ? Id go back to not voting Edited December 23, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'd like to apologies to all those people I have wrongly accused of being a troll. All 2 of them. The rest can **** off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
latterdaysinner Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1. There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works. Current prices are inflated relative to rents. To enter the market, prospective institutional landlords would either have to buy existing properties at inflated prices or buy land at inflated prices to build on. If there is no drop in prices, it would not make sense for them to enter the market through either of these routes. Hotairmail has the political analysis spot on. Osborne wants to be PM by 2020. He's not as thick as Brown and doesn't believe that he can abolish the business cycle, so he'll need all the help he can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's not voting for them that might have given them pause for thought re house prices (emphasis on the word might - a lot remains to be seen). They've only got a slim majority after all. If anyone should be drinking to Osborne and Carney at this point in time it's the bankers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If Carney had Ebola and French kissed the Idiot, I may raise a glass to them. On consideration, I still would not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I would like to aplogise to that cyclist I clipped on the way to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doahh Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Maybe Osborne is under orders from his masters to trigger the bail-in clauses to get the next wave of cash from the peons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Who knows where it will lead but if recent changes had been proposed years ago we'd certainly had said, "ok let's see what happens". I didn't believe that there would be political traction behind these types of measures. Sure there's plenty more that could be done but we now seem to have a start. Firstly, no apology necessary. I was as stunned as everyone else when Osborne actually did something. I think this thread shows what a lot of rubbish the idea of hpc groupthink usually is. Firstly it stems from posters taking different perspectives on straws in the wind in the past and one of the things being discussed is different perspectives on the political motivations behind and likely outcomes of changes that are now working their way through the system. What always tickles me is that I did get a bit of stick for suggesting that Osborne was the patron saint of hpc compared to Gordon Brown, and then about a week later Osborne lands Clause 24 on Busta-move's plate. I really didn't think suggesting he was better than Brown was contentious or much of a compliment, but I've always considered HTB schemes smaller beer compared to allowing the normalisation of self-certified interest-only lending at very high loan-to-value to the owner-occupied sector and the facilitating the expansion of the BTL sector, by dint of a failure to regulate, from nothing to 10% of the CML loan book in just ten years. I'm not sure what Osborne would have to do to change my assessment of his role in housing to worse than Brown, and I don't care to think about it! Anyway, now that St Jude, patron saint of lost causes and cases despaired of has decamped to PovertyLater, we'll need a new one. Hopefully Carney can make a bid for the job via the implementation of the BCBS risk-weights. Fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tempting thought. However, whether it is now or later as the numbers stack ever higher, they will try to resurrect the 'homeowning democracy' or this country is toast for them. They need to align the interests of the little people to their rich landordly mates. That requires home ownership whilst leaving some on the table for their mates....not the wholesale transfer over. For me it's macro views like this that contribute the easiest to understand analysis of the situation. Osbourne knows that every house sold to a BTL is a house not sold to an owner occupied tory voter. Similarly with the public sector job cull. We've talked on here about cutting the deficit being about ideology rather than sound economics. In fact it's more about the Tories knowing that public sector workers are more likely to vote Labour, cull the public sector workers and you cull the opposition vote. The other macro view which i've seen that draws my attention is the shift in sentiment regarding BTL in general and the general anger being displayed re the housing situation. I don't know whether this is being politically manufactured or not, but it seems to me that every other day there is a story in the Rage about how terrible the housing situation is ... whether the celebration of high house prices is completely at an end I think we are some time away from yet ... I think a lot of people realise that something needs to be done, but those dependent on or have made significant gains from high prices are going to be extremely reluctant to admit what is necessary. The point is though the warning flags are there and have been there for some time. People choose to ignore them at their peril. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stateless Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1. There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stateless Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I see it differently - that the conservatives are driving out amateur landlords to pave the way for institutional landlordism run by their mates. This is phase 1. There will be no drop in house prices allowed if their plan works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stateless Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Phase 1 crash the prices Phase 2 buy it all up Phase 3 set off another bubble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Wow, the OP starts a nice positive thread and look what you lot all do to it! Happy Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Wow, the OP starts a nice positive thread and look what you lot all do to it! Happy Christmas Troll. Sorry couldn't resist it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Wow, the OP starts a nice positive thread and look what you lot all do to it! Happy Christmas It doesn't matter. I can just recall BU telling us what GO/MC was thinking 18 months ago and asking how the ****** do you know? Are you him? So I don't buy it. Roll on a long time, low and behold, look what's happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StainlessSteelCat Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Phase 1 crash the prices Phase 2 buy it all up Phase 3 set off another bubble Yes, I'm afraid I still remain pretty cynical as to the motivations/end game of Osbourne. I strongly suspect BTL/short tenancies was originally intended to make life easier for the traditional landlording classes - not to encourage the average pleb to get into the same game of living off the efforts of other plebs. High house prices don't benefit the rich as they aren't planning on selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renting til I die Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Osbourne knows that every house sold to a BTL is a house not sold to an owner occupied tory voter. Also is likely to take the house out of the market long term as LL's tend not to sell, just MEW! Less repeat stamp duty for Mr. O. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yes, I'm afraid I still remain pretty cynical as to the motivations/end game of Osbourne. I strongly suspect BTL/short tenancies was originally intended to make life easier for the traditional landlording classes - not to encourage the average pleb to get into the same game of living off the efforts of other plebs. High house prices don't benefit the rich as they aren't planning on selling. Agreed. High house prices actually hurt the rich who are trying to build up a long term income stream. They want low prices and hence higher yields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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