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TheCountOfNowhere

I Finally Got A Reply From The Housing Minister On Twitter

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  1. Decent turbo bike session this morning but need to build up to longer sessions over next few days. #toomuchchocolate

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  2. @BrandonLewis You need to spend more time forcing down house prices.

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  3. @ShiresCrashing which is linked to increasing supply. Hence we now have biggest build program for several decades.

Geeee, thanks. Talk about toeing the party line.

I dont think I will get a response to :

  1. @BrandonLewis Nonsense. Massive supply in Spain, Massive bubble in prices. It was the sub-prime lending. Stop HTB, Stop FLS Ban BTL.

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  2. @BrandonLewis Decent new builds are welcome but not the current shoe boxes at insane prices supported by HTB.

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  3. @BrandonLewis If you can't see the insane housing bubble then stand down and let someone who can take over. We need action...4 years ago!!!

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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  1. Decent turbo bike session this morning but need to build up to longer sessions over next few days. #toomuchchocolate

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  2. @BrandonLewis You need to spend more time forcing down house prices.

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  3. @ShiresCrashing which is linked to increasing supply. Hence we now have biggest build program for several decades.

Geeee, thanks. Talk about toeing the party line.

I dont think I will get a response to :

  1. @BrandonLewis Nonsense. Massive supply in Spain, Massive bubble in prices. It was the sub-prime lending. Stop HTB, Stop FLS Ban BTL.

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  2. @BrandonLewis Decent new builds are welcome but not the current shoe boxes at insane prices supported by HTB.

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  3. @BrandonLewis If you can't see the insane housing bubble then stand down and let someone who can take over. We need action...4 years ago!!!

Well Done! You should have mentioned Ireland as well re: plenty of supply but prices also rose. The public really do need to have the whole credit availability to price link explained to them and forced down their throats - so that they don't swallow the usual simplistic guff about lack of supply as the sole culprit.

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Quite simple really......they do not build sufficient houses because most of the people who want/need them are unable to borrow the money the builders/land bankers want to buy them.....hence the help, help to pay more than they are worth to line others pockets....... ;)

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Thanks. I have some time on my hand this week.

In that case may I respectfully suggest that you take the opportunity to post a fair few more similar type tweets, all relating to housing unaffordability, each and every time he tweets about something completely unrelated to his day job or his constituency - and especially if they are self indulgent posts telling us about how much fun he is having on his exercise bike, such as this one.

I wouldn't go OTT and keep it civil though, as you might get blocked or such like.

Better still others here on HPC should also chip in and bring this pr*t down a peg or two.

Edited by anonguest

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is 'real' supply growing? Is the % increase in the housing stock by square foot going up faster than the % increase in credit and repatriation of sterling debt from foreign entities into property?

Typically during the bubble years, supply was growing faster than now, but typically by under 200,000 (ie well below 1% additional units), but credit was growing by double digits.

Nominal supply is irrelevant. Its supply in the face of demand (buyers) or the demand denominator (credit) that matters.

fig5ukhousebuildscompleted_tcm77-373720.

m3-m4-money-supply-since-2005-600x495.pn

To be fair the to govt in that regard, we don't seem to have gone back to Browns days of literally throwing new money at the bubble, but other factors are driving up prices

1) Obscene levels of net-migration

2) Crap yields chasing everyone out of anything that isnt property.

3) The trade deficit forcing the sale of assets based on British soil rather than manufactured exports.

That said, the whole 'higher prices induces higher supply' only works in a free market, which negates his point. Housing is not a free market. The land supply is largely fixed. Even if you have land, then there is the state planning permission monopoly. Compare real house prices to real house building and I doubt there is even a statisically significant relation.

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Do you find people on twitter etc. generally open to the idea that it is loose credit that caused the problem and government props to the market that is continuing it?

Oh yes.

e.g.:

@ShiresCrashing @AngieMeader Much of the UK economy is supported by property as investment not as homes; driving the poor out of London...

Osborne is propping up the economy with the housing bubble and it's extremely dangerous @ShiresCrashing @BrandonLewis

I get 4 or 5 types

1) The angry public sector worker who doesn't like you disagreeing that they should have more while you have less

2) The investor types who seem to know what's going on.

3) The idiots

4) The fit hotties who are up for real time meet ups....actually I made that one up :P:P:P

5) The tory/labour party activists who claim the blokes who've brainwashed them have the answers.

No one argues about any housing related posts, all I get is agreement. It's hard to argue against facts.

It's questioning the public sector that gets people angry.

The political types just try and convince you they are right.

I've not had many of the crazy MSE troll types attack me which leads me to believe it's only one sad case from Hemel Hempstead doing all the trolling and i've already blocked him on twiiter.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Well Done! You should have mentioned Ireland as well re: plenty of supply but prices also rose. The public really do need to have the whole credit availability to price link explained to them and forced down their throats - so that they don't swallow the usual simplistic guff about lack of supply as the sole culprit.

I'll slightly correct that:

"You should have mentioned Ireland as well re: plenty of supply but prices also rose. The public really do need to have the whole credit availability GIGANTIC PONZI-PYRAMID LIAR LOAN FRAUD to price link explained to them and forced down their throats - so that they don't swallow the usual simplistic guff about lack of supply as the sole culprit."

Edited by eric pebble

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Decent turbo bike session this morning but need to build up to longer sessions over next few days.

How does he manage to cram the bike into a tiny room in a tiny UK home. Ah he'll have one of the few large ones.

Edited by billybong

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is 'real' supply growing? Is the % increase in the housing stock by square foot going up faster than the % increase in credit and repatriation of sterling debt from foreign entities into property?

Typically during the bubble years, supply was growing faster than now, but typically by under 200,000 (ie well below 1% additional units), but credit was growing by double digits.

Nominal supply is irrelevant. Its supply in the face of demand (buyers) or the demand denominator (credit) that matters.

fig5ukhousebuildscompleted_tcm77-373720.

m3-m4-money-supply-since-2005-600x495.pn

To be fair the to govt in that regard, we don't seem to have gone back to Browns days of literally throwing new money at the bubble, but other factors are driving up prices

1) Obscene levels of net-migration

2) Crap yields chasing everyone out of anything that isnt property.

3) The trade deficit forcing the sale of assets based on British soil rather than manufactured exports.

That said, the whole 'higher prices induces higher supply' only works in a free market, which negates his point. Housing is not a free market. The land supply is largely fixed. Even if you have land, then there is the state planning permission monopoly. Compare real house prices to real house building and I doubt there is even a statisically significant relation.

You are contradicting yourself.

Your first chart demonstrates housing supply didnt increase as it did in Spain & Ireland. It was excess supply which ensured their bubbles collapsed but UK hasnt got an oversupply for the reason you point out in your last para. hence why UK prices didnt collapse - i.e. there was no (over) development bubble to burst. Which is why OP is wrong in his tweets and why Lewis is wrong that private sector will resolve the lack of supply. Only a builder of last resort - i.e. government can do that.

As for lending, the main problem is not affordability or real demand at all, lots of young couples can afford repayments and want to buy but it is the size of deposits which is a failure of banking regulation (BOE) to go back to sensible LTVs with say 5-10% deposits and countercyclical measures during any recession to ensure credit continues to be made available.

Banking system is not overlending on housing at all, it is underlending to OO/FTBs

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Banking system is not overlending on housing at all, it is underlending to OO/FTBs

Or, to put it another way.....OO/FTBS just aren't buying because of the INSANE F**KING PRICES.

Sales volumes are still half what they were priort to 2007...there's a reson for this and it's not the lending.

FLS was used for the last 2 years to fund BTL. If the Boe and Osborne are to be believed ( :lol::lol::lol::lol: , I know ) then FLS is being ramped down and for business only lending. That leaves the housing market with no one to support it bar the now non-existent foreign buyer and money launderers.

The torys ( thankfully ) saw sense and brought in MMR to stop actual real decent honest people from buying houses ( :D:D:D:D I know ).

No one is going to cry for the Buy Toilets, I personally ( and Venger too ) will love nothing more than watching them cry.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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It's telling that for the first time in over 40 years the major parties are competing to propose means to build more houses then each other. Building cycles, I believe, have quite a long wavelength, this will build long term momentum in house building.

Edited by Si1

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It's telling that for the first time in over 40 years the major parties are competing to propose means to build more houses then each other. Building cycles, I believe, have quite a long wavelength, this will build long term momentum in house building.

I think/hope they are starting to get the message.

Look at the numbers though....they aren't

They can stop this sham tomorrow if they desired.

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It's telling that for the first time in over 40 years the major parties are competing to propose means to build more houses then each other. Building cycles, I believe, have quite a long wavelength, this will build long term momentum in house building.

Yet people like Barker are now being wheeled out to claim that the numbers promised aren't achievable because of builders' lack of capacity. As if that was only discovered after they made the promises.

Edited by billybong

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