Telegraph: Millions Give Up On Home Ownership As House Prices Soar

[rantnrave]

No surprise really:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/12057861/Millions-give-up-on-home-ownership-as-house-prices-soar.html

[Nabby81]

Still don't get it , supply is not the only issue

[rantnrave]

Still don't get it , supply is not the only issue

Agreed, but the lack of supply in recent years masks (and simplifies) the problem. Other countries that actually built and saw prices go up have came to realise that the bubble was not primarily an issue of supply.

[billybong]

Dame Kate Barker, a former Bank of England policymaker, warned this month that housebuilders will not be able to build the homes England needs even by the end of the decade, because the industry lacks the capacity to ramp up supply.

Dame Kate, who published an independent review of housing supply in 2004, said England needed to build around 300,000 new homes a year to meet its housing needs.

However, she added: “I think the industry would not be capable of going from here to 300,000 [homes a year] in short order."

Amazing - so all those Polish etc etc building site workers that were supposed to be coming to the UK to help to boost the UK building industry over the years and to work to make some money themselves (and there were supposed to be hundreds of thousands of them) apparently aren't available now to build the new homes needed? Where did they all go? Have they gone back to Poland etc etc where there's a higher percentage of home ownership than in the UK.

Yet now Poland also doesn't want restrictions on the numbers travelling to the UK. None of it adds up.

It all sounds more and more incredible by the day.

Edited December 19, 2015 by billybong

[richc]

Amazing - so all those Polish etc etc building site workers that were supposed to be coming to the UK to help to boost the UK building industry over the years and to work to make some money themselves (and there were supposed to be hundreds of thousands of them) apparently aren't available now to build the new homes needed? Where did they all go? Have they gone back to Poland etc etc where there's a higher percentage of home ownership than in the UK.

Yet now Poland also doesn't want restrictions on the numbers travelling to the UK. None of it adds up.

It all sounds more and more incredible by the day.

from wikipedia;

Board memberships[edit]

Barker chairs the advisory board for the Spatial Economics Research Centre at the London School of Economics (LSE) and is a member of the advisory board of LSE's Centre for Economic Policy. She became Chair of the advisory board for the Centre for Business Research at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, in October 2012. She is a senior visiting fellow in the Department of Land Economy at Cambridge. She was also a Governor at Anglia Ruskin University from 2000–10, and Chair of Governors 2007-2010; in October 2011, the university awarded her an honorary doctorate.^{[citation needed]}

She is a non-executive director on the boards of Taylor Wimpey, Electra Private Equity plc, and the Yorkshire Building Society. She is a Senior Adviser to Credit Suisse. Previously an independent member of the Football Regulatory Authority of the Football Association, she is a Stoke City F.C. fan.^[6]

She has been Chair of the Society of Business Economists since 2013. In March 2014 she was appointed a member of the Fiscal Policy Panel of the States of Jersey.

In September 2014 Dame Kate Barker became Chair of the Trustees of the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme.

[billybong]

from wikipedia;

No vested interest then

Another one that should have the voice dubbed over whenever speaking on UK issues.

Edited December 19, 2015 by billybong

[pig]

No surprise really:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/12057861/Millions-give-up-on-home-ownership-as-house-prices-soar.html

Funny how it's the cost of a mortgage and not the house that's the problem

[Venger]

Housing financialisation bubble, much much more than a supply issue. (Although I agree there are supply issues, and inefficiencies of us existing stock, whilst I shudder at look/standard so much of newbuild stock of recent years.)

Tax-annoyed cranky BTLer tipped into me the other day with, 'Much more importantly, what we going to do about the supply problem' - with all of the houses in his portfolio grrr.

In 1980, each house had to be shared by 2.7 people.

In 1990, it was around 2.5 people per house.

It is currently around 2.4.

From 2000-2013, 2.3M houses were built in the UK.

We have, therefore, built enough houses for around 5.5M people.

Over the same period, population increased by 5.2M people.

There is no shortage of housing. Housing has never been more plentiful.

The Times

Britain becomes a nation of renters as buy-to-let prices out new buyers

January 1 2015

Departmental figures show that the vast majority of new housing in the UK since the turn of the millennium has been bought by landlords. Between 2000 and 2012, the private rented sector has accounted for some 2.5 million of the extra homes. Only 400,000 have been bought by occupiers.

http://www.thetimes....f4bb875d204d1d6

HPCer: So... of 2.9m new homes built since 2000, 2.5m (i.e.86%) bought by landlords, 400k by owner-occupiers as home ownership plunges to lowest since 1988.

[Venger]

No surprise really:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/12057861/Millions-give-up-on-home-ownership-as-house-prices-soar.html

Was kicking through the 'give up' theme earlier today, and housing financialisation/BTLer supply grabbing crush on younger people. Of course same was true in 2004-2006, as well as 2010,11,12,13,14,15.

Since 2010, 1.6 million buy-to-let mortgages have been sold, totalling £188 billion of approved loans.

*Source http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/205642-btl-scum-regrouping-and-on-the-offensive-merged/?p=1102846197

‘Implicit in the Bank of England’s analysis is an acknowledgment that landlords have bid up house prices in parts of the UK and forced young families to rent instead.’

Patrick Collinson and Hilary Osborned at the Guardian wrote this weekend:

Err the most obvious thing ever. House after house has dropped off my RM list to sell at zany high prices, to reappear as a rental since 2010. Year after year. Only limiting myself to a few articles.. could go back 2010, 08 even and the 'big HPC' that never was around here. Then all the same 2004-07.

Sunday 9 December 2012 00.06 GMT

Most of these would like to buy – 86% want to own their own home, according to the British Social Attitude Survey – but are stuck in rented accommodation for the foreseeable future.

[...]Shelter said a third of homes for rent in Bristol do not meet basic standards and complaints against private landlords in Bristol have more than doubled in the past three years to 523 in 2011-12.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/dec/09/generation-rent-locked-out-home-ownership

--

Housing crisis means half of London's 'generation rent' have given up all hope of buying property

Charity findings show homes crisis 'crushing aspiration'- George Osborne yesterday revealed new measures to help first-time buyers- Shelter finds more than half of renters think they will never own a property. Soaring prices and vast deposits holding people back, study finds

Thursday 21 March 2013

[...]Just 10 per cent of renters polled chose to be tenants because they enjoy the “freedom and flexibility” it brings. But six out of 10 said they only rent because they cannot afford to buy.

[...]“Every month we line the pockets of a private landlord and can never dream of owning our own home — anywhere, let alone London where we live and work.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/housing-crisis-means-half-of-londons-generation-rent-have-given-up-all-hope-of-buying-property-8544035.html

--

We're destined to be Generation Rent, say younger people

Renting to become the norm for generation of would-be buyers priced out of housing market, according to a report by Halifax canvassing opinion of younger people

Monday 17 June 2013 11.10 BST

The report also pointed to figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showing that first-time buyers typically needed to find a deposit of nearly £27,000 in the first quarter of 2013.

Halifax found that almost a third (31%) of 20- to 45-year-olds said they would only be prepared to save for three years to raise enough cash for a deposit before giving up.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/jun/17/generation-rent-younger-people

--

Buy-to-let boom winners and losers. Hello 'generation rent': goodbye social mobility

By Ian Cowie Your Money Last updated: July 8th, 2011

Just 15 years after the first ‘buy-to-let’ mortgage was marketed in Britain, the number of people in privately-rented accommodation is now greater than those in council and housing association properties combined. This is the first time that has been the case since the 1960s and the long term trends which led to this state of affairs are unlikely to be reversed any time soon.

Young people who feel frozen out of home ownership by high house prices and condemned to pay their landlords’ mortgages on privately-let accommodation had better get used to being part of ‘generation rent’.

These are among the main conclusions of a wide-ranging analysis of the housing market by Adrian Coles, director general of the Building Societies Association (BSA), based on raw data from the Department for Communities and Local Government.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010756/buy-to-let-boom-winners-and-losers-hello-generation-rent-goodbye-social-mobility/

--

Generation rental: the housing crisis facing today's youth

Jenn Ashworth

For many young people the possibility of owning their own home is a distant dream. Instead they are trapped in a cycle of short-term lets in sub-standard housing.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/mar/16/generation-rental-housing-crisis-shortage

Generation Rent: ignored, insecure – and on the rise

Barbara Ellen

Sunday 2 November 2014

Politicians ignore the number of people renting property at their peril – they could become a hugely powerful political faction

Generation Rent could send a wrecking ball through some areas of long-established political lore.’

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/02/generation-rent-ignored-insecure-on-the-rise

--

Generation rent: who's listening?

The number of private renters has now surpassed those in social housing for the first time, making them a political force to be reckoned with. But not everyone is convinced

Saturday 10 May 2014 08.31 BST

..This change has been met by a ballooning in the number of private landlords, 72% of whom let out just one home.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/may/10/generation-rent-whos-listening-private-rental-market-ed-miliband

--

Rise of Generation Rent as home ownership hits 25-year low

Rise of 'generation rent' as home ownership becomes preserve of pensioners and young people are forced off the property ladder

26 Feb 2014

Home ownership has fallen to its lowest level for a quarter of a century as soaring property prices have seen the number of people renting almost double.

More than a third of England's 14.3million homeowners are now aged 65 and over as young people have been frozen off the property ladder.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/10663923/Rise-of-Generation-Rent-as-home-ownership-hits-25-year-low.html

Then all the others with large BTL 'portfolios' - however even one home bought as a BTL around here for £300K (as happens month after month, year after year, with properties that have dropped of my RM list, sold at high prices, and reappeared as rentals)... well you don't have to be a HPC genius member (or 118/PT genius either) to realise that's a price beyond so many FTBs and upsizers. Connect the logic together.

[winkie]

Amazing - so all those Polish etc etc building site workers that were supposed to be coming to the UK to help to boost the UK building industry over the years and to work to make some money themselves (and there were supposed to be hundreds of thousands of them) apparently aren't available now to build the new homes needed? Where did they all go? Have they gone back to Poland etc etc where there's a higher percentage of home ownership than in the UK.

Yet now Poland also doesn't want restrictions on the numbers travelling to the UK. None of it adds up.

It all sounds more and more incredible by the day.

Something doesn't add up.......what if we all painted our own nails, washed our own cars and made our own coffee......we need help to build something useful.

[Killer Bunny]

Dame Kate Barker is a charlatan. What made her is her work on building brings down prices. No it fg doesn't.

Tight lending does.

[Venger]

I recall her final speech whilst at MPC in 2010. Or at least I think it was last speech. Grated on me. More so with the 'they didn't know what they were doing' choir lobbying at the same for reflation to save da house price e-con-o-meh.

Snippets.. not going to even bother including the part where she talks about what could have happened if they'd leaned into the wind, and then seemingly suggests wouldn't have stopped boom in other countries.

Posted on March 10, 2010

In case you do not know Kate Barker is about to leave the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) after a nine-year term and on Monday night gave a speech reviewing events. You might think that there would be a some form of mea culpa or at least an acknowledgement of policy mistakes such as failing to respond to asset price bubbles in the earlier part of this century (which was on her watch). Sadly this was absent but her speech was revealing in showing what the MPC thinks.
-----
Given the scale of the recent financial crisis and consequent recession, it is not possible to look back over my lengthy period as a policymaker with the degree of satisfaction I would have wished.

Certainly I seriously underestimated the scale of the downside risks from a potential financial crisis, and that implied overrating the ability of monetary policy to offset this shock.

..When I joined in 2001, the output gap concept which underlay the MPC’s judgements was a short-run estimate of the difference between the present level of output and full capacity..

The MPC does not pretend to any ability to project house prices, although there are some broad assumptions underlying the central projection. These generally did not foresee the periods of strong house price increase in the first half of the 2000s.

..As I suggested at the start, it may however also have been the period in which a large error was made in allowing the belief to become established that policy makers had solved the issue of economic instability.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/speeches/2010/speech426.pdf

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2010/03/10/uk-industrial-output-disappoints-plus-complacency-from-the-monetary-policy-committee/

[hp72]

Something doesn't add up.......what if we all painted our own nails, washed our own cars and made our own coffee......we need help to build something useful.

I spoke with a builder recently who advised there is a shortage of Brickies so daily rates are around £300-£400 a day in surrey area.

As a result he advised that finished renovation/extension work would cost £3000 per sq/m. !! Traditional guides are around £1100 sq/m.

This (if true) does indicate the supply of labour is reduced.

Also, the difference in costs and salary btwixt Poland and UK have narrowed so more Polish have gone home.

[winkie]

I spoke with a builder recently who advised there is a shortage of Brickies so daily rates are around £300-£400 a day in surrey area.

As a result he advised that finished renovation/extension work would cost £3000 per sq/m. !! Traditional guides are around £1100 sq/m.

This (if true) does indicate the supply of labour is reduced.

Also, the difference in costs and salary btwixt Poland and UK have narrowed so more Polish have gone home.

.....In a free open market people will buy best person that offers best value to do the best job....immigration has helped wealthy home owners and others to extend and build their homes using the qualified to do it for less. People therefore with the means benefit from cheaper labour costs.

Those who are not so wealthy will be in global competition with their peers both in jobs, housing and resources.....

I am sure if you wanted work done you could put them up for the time it takes to do it....just saying.

[ingermany]

Dame Kate Barker is a charlatan. What made her is her work on building brings down prices. No it fg doesn't.

Tight lending does.

Simply lending at volumes and rates determined by the forces and risks of the free market would control prices well enough. There would still be booms and busts of course, but these would be synchronised with the economic cycle. Only massive government financial intervention could create a record housing bubble in a recession. And a perverse incentive to keep the economy in "special measures".

[richc]

Dame Kate Barker is a charlatan. What made her is her work on building brings down prices. No it fg doesn't.

Tight lending does.

Kate Barker has an undergraduate degree in PPE, which is the sum total of her academic credentials, yet she's continually wheeled out as some sort of expert on housing, banking, and land use planning issues. FFS, she's a politician, not an expert on housing economics.

[streamingfreedom]

Amazing - so all those Polish etc etc building site workers that were supposed to be coming to the UK to help to boost the UK building industry over the years and to work to make some money themselves (and there were supposed to be hundreds of thousands of them) apparently aren't available now to build the new homes needed? Where did they all go? Have they gone back to Poland etc etc where there's a higher percentage of home ownership than in the UK.

Yet now Poland also doesn't want restrictions on the numbers travelling to the UK. None of it adds up.

It all sounds more and more incredible by the day.

They never came in the first place. They don't want bricklaying for some reason. My dad had been a brickie for 45 years and retired last week at 62. Only carried on past 60 as he was making good money because they couldn't find any bricklayers. The site begged him to stay last week as they can't get anyone. There is no way the government target for building won't be achievable because so many skilled workers and especially younger ones came out of the trade in the last recession 2008 and wouldn't go back. Many lost everything and fear another recession.

[streamingfreedom]

Above should read "will be achievable" - hate using the phone to type and can't see how to edit a post

[interestrateripoff]

Housing makes people very wealthy on paper. It's a "wealth" people don't want to give up cheaply.

[Si1]

They never came in the first place. They don't want bricklaying for some reason. My dad had been a brickie for 45 years and retired last week at 62. Only carried on past 60 as he was making good money because they couldn't find any bricklayers. The site begged him to stay last week as they can't get anyone. There is no way the government target for building won't be achievable because so many skilled workers and especially younger ones came out of the trade in the last recession 2008 and wouldn't go back. Many lost everything and fear another recession.

That just accentuates the cycle. Well probably have too many brickies 5 years from now as they get churned out of building colleges.

[spyguy]

They never came in the first place. They don't want bricklaying for some reason. My dad had been a brickie for 45 years and retired last week at 62. Only carried on past 60 as he was making good money because they couldn't find any bricklayers. The site begged him to stay last week as they can't get anyone. There is no way the government target for building won't be achievable because so many skilled workers and especially younger ones came out of the trade in the last recession 2008 and wouldn't go back. Many lost everything and fear another recession.

The UK building industry is fcked. It has been for years.

Outside of a few good, small builders builders, the rest are a bunch of bodging labourers working for cheapskate junk merchants.

Give the new building contracts to German or continental companies.

Let them build a temporary village of portacabins and build the new estates.

Stop propping up the junk building firms; let them go under.

[frederico]

A lot of it must be the cost of land, land is very tightly controlled in this country, hundreds of years of history have seen to that.

That and sub prime BTL. Obviously.

[PopGun]

Well it took a while but it's good that building/planning is now widely accepted as one of many symptoms and not the root cause of hpi on HPC!!

The same way as demand was finally debunked. God I hated that canard being trotted out.

Building, land banking, finance/lax lending, BTL, house hording, speculation, investing, government meddling in pensions/Capitol controls, deregulation etc

Oh and the Daily Express. Feel free to add your own.

[honkydonkey]

Well it took a while but it's good that building/planning is now widely accepted as one of many symptoms and not the root cause of hpi on HPC!!

The same way as demand was finally debunked. God I hated that canard being trotted out.

Building, land banking, finance/lax lending, BTL, house hording, speculation, investing, government meddling in pensions/Capitol controls, deregulation etc

Oh and the Daily Express. Feel free to add your own.

Ultimately it's down to the general public. It would collapse tomorrow if people refused to take part.

[Dorkins]

Ultimately it's down to the general public. It would collapse tomorrow if people refused to take part.

Yes. The most revolutionary act the average Briton can perform now is not to take out a mortgage.